Extreme drought creeping back into southwestern Oklahoma, June/Summer looks hot, says Gary McManus of the Oklahoma Climatological Survey
By Gary McManus, Oklahoma Climatological Survey:
Extreme drought creeping back into southwestern Oklahoma, June/Summer looks hot
We talked last week about our underwhelming (thus far) rainy season for much of the state. Our wet March turned into a partially-wet April for some, but the moisture slowdown began for real in mid-April. Northern Oklahoma saw a ton of rain the last few days of last month, but May has been disappointing so far.
That 1-3 inches scattered about southern Oklahoma looks okay until you remember that THIS IS THE RAINY SEASON and compare it to normal. Even those areas are at best 60%-80% of normal. The statewide average for May so far is 0.87 inches, 1.94 inches below normal. The driest May on record was 1988′s 1.3 inches.
That’s not a record we need to be shooting for.
The latest 5-day forecast from the NWS’ Hydrometeorological Prediction Center shows our weekend rain chances, but it doesn’t look like a lot just yet.
When you combine the heat that we’ve had (we’re well on our way to the warmest January-May and spring March-May periods on record for the state) and the absence of spring rains, you will have drought begin to sneak in once again.
Especially in areas that never fully recovered from last year’s disaster. The latest U.S. Drought Monitor map, released this morning, portrays the weakening of the drought relief we’ve seen since last October. Extreme (D3) drought has once again wormed its way back into far southwestern Oklahoma.
It’s a very small change for now, but hot southwesterly winds blowing off the more widespread drought area of west Texas will spread that drought to the northeast if rains do not return.
The good news is that west Texas just got a good dose of rain in some places, so relief was close, at least. There are no large-scale climate factors indicating a continued absence of our normal spring rains. The double-dip La Nina that we experienced the last two years has now dissipated and oceanic and atmospheric anomalies now reflect neutral conditions.
The latest outlooks reflect the lack of those large-scale influences on the precipitation for the southern U.S., including Oklahoma. The “EC” designation for our area indicates “Equal Chances” for above-, below- or near-normal rainfall for June and also the June-August (summer) periods.
Caution: That does not mean normal rainfall is favored. The lack of indicators simply means that they can’t tilt the odds for any favored regime.
The temperature outlooks are a completely different story. There are strong indications from dynamic climate models in particular that we are in for a warmer than normal June and summer as well. Diminishing soil moisture as we head into the calendar’s hottest section is another indicator of above normal temperatures.
Now here’s an important caveat. The skill on these outlooks is admittedly fairly low during the warm season, especially the summer months. Until our persistent above normal temperatures subside, however, that looks like the possible direction our temperatures are going to go. Our ace in the hole is precipitation. As we’ve talked about numerous times, our summer heat features a strong negative correlation to rainfall. So if we have a wetter than normal summer, the temperatures should be a bit milder.
Hazardous weather outlook, from the National Weather Service, Norman
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
WED MAY 16 2012
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
WED MAY 16 2012
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN…WESTERN…
CENTRAL…AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA…AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
.DAY ONE…TODAY AND TONIGHT…
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK…
NO STORMS ARE EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION…
A STABLE AND DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA AND NO
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
PROBABILITY TABLE…
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT THURSDAY MAY 17.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA…ZERO PERCENT.
OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER…
NONE.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY…
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK…
A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS FROM DEVELOPING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL
STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH THE AREA.
OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER…
NONE.
Hazardous weather outlook through Monday, from the National Weather Service, Norman
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK…
A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS FROM DEVELOPING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL
STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH THE AREA.
OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER…
NONE.
Forecast for the National Weather Service, Norman coverage area
Dry weather and a slow warming trend is expected through the rest of the week.
A cold front is forecast to approach late in the weekend and early next week,
bringing the next chance for rain and slightly cooler temperatures.
Hazardous weather outlook, from the National Weather Service, Norman
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
500 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN…WESTERN…
CENTRAL…AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA…AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
.DAY ONE…TODAY AND TONIGHT…
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK…
NO STORMS ARE EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION…
A STABLE AND DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA AND
NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
PROBABILITY TABLE…
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT WEDNESDAY MAY 16.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA…ZERO PERCENT.
OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER…
NONE.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY…
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK…
A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS FROM DEVELOPING TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.
STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN NEXT SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER…
NONE.
Hazardous weather outlook, from the National Weather Service, Tulsa
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
MON MAY 14 2012
THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
.DAY ONE…TODAY AND TONIGHT.
DISCUSSION…
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY. A DISTURBANCE MOVING WITHIN THE UPPER
TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN TO THE SOUTHWEST…THOUGH AN ISOLATED RAIN
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER THE REGION. ANY
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL.
SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT…
SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT EXPECTED.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY…NO HAZARDS.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY…HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY…NO HAZARDS.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION…
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SET UP ACROSS THE PLAINS TUESDAY AND
REMAIN OVER THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY
CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES. SOUTHERLY WINDS
SHOULD INCREASE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE THIS
COMING WEEKEND.
Hazardous weather outlook, from the National Weather Service, Norman
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
MON MAY 14 2012
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN…WESTERN…
CENTRAL…AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA…AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
.DAY ONE…TODAY AND TONIGHT…
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK…
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL AFFECT PARTS OF
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
NOT EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION…
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO AND
SOUTHERN COLORADO WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT.
WEAK FORCING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE HAS GENERATED SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY…POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN LOW…BUT A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER MAY
OCCUR WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS LATER TODAY.
PROBABILITY TABLE…
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT TUESDAY MAY 15.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA…20 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR…ZERO PERCENT.
OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER…
NONE.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY…
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK…
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING ALONG
THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT MIGRATES INTO PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS. THEREAFTER…A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS…KEEPING THUNDERSTORMS FROM DEVELOPING THROUGH
AT LEAST SATURDAY. STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY SUNDAY AS A
FRONT APPROACHES NORTHERN OKLAHOMA…BUT NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED.
OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER…
NONE.
The hazardous weather outlook, from the National Weather Service, Norman
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-
NOBLE-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-
BECKHAM-WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-
CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-
TILLMAN-COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-
JEFFERSON-CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-
FOARD-WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
825 PM CDT SAT MAY 12 2012
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN…WESTERN…
CENTRAL…AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA…AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
.DAY ONE…REST OF TONIGHT…
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK…
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION…
SHOWERS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON WERE DRIVEN BY DAYTIME HEATING OF A
HUMID AIR MASS. WITH NIGHTFALL…THESE SHOWERS HAD DISSIPATED. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT…
BUT IT IS NOT FORECAST TO ARRIVE IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS UNTIL LATE SUNDAY.
PROBABILITY TABLE…
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT SUNDAY MAY 13.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA…LESS THAN 5 PERCENT.
OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER…
NONE.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY…
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK…
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. STORMS
THAT DEVELOP ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST MAY MOVE INTO PARTS
OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY MORNING AS THIS STORM SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER…
NONE.
Hazardous weather outlook, from the National Weather Service, Norman
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
433 AM CDT SAT MAY 12 2012
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN…WESTERN…
CENTRAL…AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA…AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
.DAY ONE…TODAY AND TONIGHT…
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK…
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL AFFECT
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA…AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
THROUGH TONIGHT. NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION…
A BROAD UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK LIFT ALONG THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS CONTRIBUTED TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS.
AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND MOVE OUT OF THE AREA…SHOWERS
WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN MARGINAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS…THOUGH MODEST DAYTIME HEATING MAY LEAD TO ADEQUATE
INSTABILITY FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO THROUGH THIS EVENING.
PROBABILITY TABLE…
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT SUNDAY MAY 13.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA…40 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR…ZERO PERCENT.
OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER…
NONE.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY…
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK…
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. STORMS
THAT DEVELOP ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST MAY MOVE INTO PARTS
OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY MORNING AS THIS STORM SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS.
OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER…
NONE.
Some rainfall totals since midnight, as of 12:05 p.m., according to the Oklahoma Mesonet
Apache, 1.47 inches
Medicine Park, 1.45 inches
Hobart, 1.26 inches
Walters, 1.25 inches
Chickasha, 1.13 inches
Bessie, 1.07 inches
Grandfield, 1.06 inches
Mangum, 1.06 inches
Ninnekah, 1.03 inches
Fort Cobb, 1.00 inch
