Mesoscale discussion from the National Weather Service
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0220 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1054 AM CST MON FEB 25 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE...ERN OK PANHANDLE...WRN INTO N-CNTRL OK....S-CNTRL KS CONCERNING...BLIZZARD VALID 251654Z - 252230Z SUMMARY...HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE/SHIFT E/NE ACROSS THE MCD AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE ALSO WILL SHIFT E/NE INTO PORTIONS OF NW OK/S-CNTRL KS BY LATE AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD 1 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY 2 INCHES PER HOUR POSSIBLE. DISCUSSION...HEAVY SNOW BAND CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM JUST SOUTH OF LUBBOCK NORTH-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ERN TX PANHANDLE INTO NW OK WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A SFC LOW LOCATED BETWEEN CDS AND SPS AT 16Z WILL SLOWLY SHIFT E/NE ALONG THE RED RIVER INTO S-CNTRL OK THIS AFTERNOON IN TANDEM WITH UPPER LOW. AS THIS OCCURS...HEAVIEST SNOW WILL SHIFT E/NE IN CONCERT WITH FAVORABLE DEFORMATION ZONE/850 MB FRONTOGENESIS FROM THE ERN TX PANHANDLE INTO WRN OK/S-CNTRL KS. EVIDENCE OF THIS EWD SHIFT WAS NOTED FROM NEAR END TOWARD CSM IN OK AS RAIN WAS CHANGING TO SNOW OVER THE LAST HOUR. THIS TRANSITION WILL CONTINUE EWD ALONG/TO THE WEST OF THE I-35/I-44 CORRIDOR IN OK BY LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG 850 MB JET ON THE BACK SIDE OF LOW WILL OVERSPREAD WRN INTO N-CNTRL OK/S-CNTRL KS BY LATE AFTERNOON AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
Briefing on today’s winter storm
From Mike Honigsberg, of the Enid/Garfield County Emergency Management:
The National Weather Service has stated that our transition to snow should be anytime from 11 to 1 p.m. The freezing line hasn’t made it solidly into the area yet. We have had about 1.5 to 2 inches of rain in the region. Translate this to snow fall, we may have had 4-6 inches if we had been below freezing. Either way, it’s moisture.
Thinking is still 6-10 inches of snow but what falls will fall. We will measure it if possible when it’s done. Overall, we still have a strong winter event coming to the area so stay vigilant in your preparedness efforts.
The Garfield County Courthouse will close at 2 p.m.
Some snowfall measurements from out west are 9 inches at ALVA, 6 inches at SHATTUCK, 2 inches at HELENA, 8 inches at LAVERNE, 12 inches at WOODWARD.
Blizzard shuts down miles of I-40
AccuWeather.com reports as the second major winter storm in a week takes shape across the southern High Plains, heavy windswept snow will clobber areas from Amarillo north to Dodge City, Wichita and Kansas City through Monday.
Travel on the roads and in the air will likely be brought to a standstill in these areas during the height of the storm as snowfall reaches immobilizing rates of 2-4″/hr. Winds could gust as high as 50 or even 60 mph in some locations, leading to widespread and dangerous blowing, drifting and whiteouts.
Oklahoma snow records
From Gary McManus, associate state climatologist, at the Oklahoma Climatological Survey:
24-hour snowfall: Spavinaw, 27 inches (Feb. 8-9, 2011)
Storm-total snowfall: Buffalo, 36 inches (Feb. 20-22, 1971)
Monthly snowfall: Buffalo, 39.5 inches (February 1971)
Seasonal snowfall: Beaver, 87.3 inches (1911-12)
This isn’t unprecedented in recent memory, whether you’re talking blizzard or
heavy snow. There’s the aforementioned Spavinaw record from just a couple of
years ago, and that amount broke the record set during a blizzard in late March
2009. Freedom and Alva recorded 26 inches in an early spring blizzard that
year.
Significant weather advisory for Northeastern Coal and Southeastern Hughes counties until 9 a.m.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
835 AM CST MON FEB 25 2013
OKZ032-043-251500-
COAL OK-HUGHES OK-
835 AM CST MON FEB 25 2013
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN COAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN HUGHES COUNTIES UNTIL 900 AM CST...
AT 832 AM CST...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES NORTH OF
COALGATE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.
HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
COALGATE...STUART AND CENTRAHOMA.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE ALERT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS.
&&
LAT...LON 3506 9607 3504 9609 3461 9609 3449 9618
3457 9637 3510 9611 3508 9606
TIME...MOT...LOC 1432Z 206DEG 48KT 3460 9624
Winter storm system transitioning from rain to snow
From Mike Honigsberg, of Enid/Garfield County Emergency Management:
The storm system has arrived and we have started the rain/snow transition. What is going on is the atmosphere is starting to cool enough for periods of snow to occur. The rain has caused quite a bit of cooling, but we are still above freezing in most areas of the county therefore we will still have rain for awhile.
As the freezing line moves closer, we will see rain and snow and as temps fall it should transition to all snow. It looks as though this will happen over the next several hours. Air temps from here to Fairview are at 33 degrees, so we are getting closer. Snowfall is occurring from a Fairview to Helena line and points west and north.
Winter storm advisory update
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 415 AM CST MON FEB 25 2013 ...DANGEROUS WINTER STORM MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... OKZ007-008-012-013-018-251815- /O.CON.KOUN.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-130225T1800Z/ /O.CON.KOUN.BZ.W.0001.130225T1800Z-130226T1200Z/ GRANT-KAY-GARFIELD-NOBLE-KINGFISHER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MEDFORD...PONCA CITY...ENID...PERRY... KINGFISHER 415 AM CST MON FEB 25 2013 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST TODAY... ...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY... * TIMING: HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATE THIS MORNING. THE SNOW WILL INTENSIFY THROUGH THE EVENING. THE SNOW WILL END TUESDAY MORNING. * IMPACTS: STRONG NORTHWEST WIND WILL CAUSE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY AND CONSIDERABLE DRIFTING SNOW ARE EXPECTED. TRAVEL WILL BE VERY DANGEROUS LATE TODAY UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR 12 INCHES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... DO NOT TRAVEL! STAY INSIDE! STRONG WINDS AND BLINDING SNOW WILL MAKE TRAVEL NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE. THIS IS A LIFE THREATENING STORM. && $$ OKZ004>006-009>011-014>017-021>023-033>036-TXZ083-251815- /O.CON.KOUN.BZ.W.0001.000000T0000Z-130226T1200Z/ HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY- CUSTER-BLAINE-BECKHAM-WASHITA-CADDO-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON- HARDEMAN- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...ALVA...CHEROKEE...ARNETT... WOODWARD...FAIRVIEW...CHEYENNE...TALOGA...WEATHERFORD...CLINTON... WATONGA...ELK CITY...SAYRE...CORDELL...ANADARKO...HOLLIS... MANGUM...HOBART...ALTUS...QUANAH...CHILLICOTHE 415 AM CST MON FEB 25 2013 ...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY... * TIMING: HEAVY SNOW WILL MOVE EAST AND ENCOMPASS ALL OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING. THE SNOW WILL END WEST TO EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. * IMPACTS: STRONG NORTHWEST WIND WILL CAUSE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS TODAY AND TONIGHT. NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY AND CONSIDERABLE DRIFTING SNOW ARE EXPECTED... ESPECIALLY NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE-40. TRAVEL WILL BE VERY DANGEROUS TODAY UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR 16 INCHES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... DO NOT TRAVEL! STAY INSIDE! STRONG WINDS AND BLINDING SNOW WILL MAKE TRAVEL NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE. THIS IS A LIFE THREATENING STORM. && $$ OKZ019-020-024>031-038-251815- /O.CON.KOUN.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-130226T1200Z/ LOGAN-PAYNE-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND- POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-COMANCHE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GUTHRIE...STILLWATER...YUKON... EL RENO...MUSTANG...OKLAHOMA CITY...CHANDLER...CHICKASHA... PURCELL...NORMAN...MOORE...SHAWNEE...SEMINOLE...LAWTON 415 AM CST MON FEB 25 2013 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY... A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY. * TIMING: SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL SPREAD INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATE THIS MORNING. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE OKLAHOMA CITY AND LAWTON AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY. * IMPACTS: STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND WILL CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. VISIBILITY MAY BE NEAR ZERO AT TIMES IN THE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS. TRAVEL WILL BE DANGEROUS LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED FROM STILLWATER TO EL RENO. ACROSS OKLAHOMA CITY AMOUNTS WILL VARY FROM 6 TO 2 INCHES...NORTH TO SOUTH. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... AVOID TRAVEL. BE SURE YOU CAN TAKE CARE OF YOURSELF AND YOUR FAMILY IF YOU LOSE ELECTRICAL POWER. MONITOR WEATHER FORECASTS AND INFORMATION. && $$ OKZ037-044-TXZ084>088-251815- /O.CON.KOUN.WW.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-130226T0600Z/ TILLMAN-COTTON-FOARD-WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FREDERICK...WALTERS...CROWELL... VERNON...WICHITA FALLS...MUNDAY...KNOX CITY...SEYMOUR 415 AM CST MON FEB 25 2013 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT TUESDAY... * TIMING: RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS. SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES...IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE EXITING TO THE EAST. * MAIN IMPACT: ACCUMULATIONS OF A TRACE TO 4 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED. HOWEVER...WINDS GUSTING FROM 35 TO NEAR 50 MPH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN LOWERED VISIBILITY IN BLOWING SNOW AND SOME DRIFTS. * OTHER IMPACTS: EXCESSIVE WINDS COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW...RESULTING IN TREACHEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... BE CAREFUL IF YOU HAVE TO TRAVEL. EVEN SMALL AMOUNTS OF ICE AND SNOW CAN MAKE ROADS AND SIDEWALKS SLICK AND DANGEROUS.
Area forecast discussion from the National Weather Service
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
547 AM CST MON FEB 25 2013
.AVIATION...
A BLIZZARD IS ON-GOING IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TODAY. SNOW WILL MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA AT MID-DAY TODAY AND STRONG NORTH WIND WILL DEVELOP WITH
GUSTS OVER 40 MPH IN MANY AREAS. SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW IN MANY
AREAS WILL BRING VISIBILITIES LESS THAN 1/2 MILE. THUNDERSTORMS IN
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SHOULD MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AFTER 251400.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CST MON FEB 25 2013/
DISCUSSION...
THE WINTER STORM IS EVOLVING AS HAS BEEN EXPECTED. THE LOCATION
AND TIMING OF THE STORM HAS BEEN CONSISTENT. THE BLIZZARD WARNING
FOR WESTERN OKLAHOAM AND WINTER STORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL SECTIONS
CONTINUES INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THUNDER IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EAST WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS, THEN THE TRANSITION TO
SNOW WILL HAPPEN. A MID-DAY TRANSITION FOR CENTRAL OKLAHOMA STILL
SEEMS LIKELY. THE SURFACE CYLCONE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN INTO
TONIGHT AS IT MOVES ALONG THE RED RIVER. WIND SPEEDS ARE
INCREASING IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH
THE DAY. STRONGER WINDS SHOULD MOVE INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATER
THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH MODELS HAVE VARYING AMOUNTS OF MAXIMUM
TOTAL SNOWFALL IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA--AT LEAST A FOOT-- THE
LOCATION HAS BEEN QUITE CONSISTENT RUNNING FROM AROUND CHEYENNE TO
WOOWARD AND CHEROKEE. WE ARE KEEPING WITH THE WIDESPREAD ONE FOOT
FORECAST FOR THIS AREA WITH SOME AMOUNTS OVER 16 INCHES. FOR NOW,
THE SNOWFALL FORECAST ACROSS THE GREATER OKLAHOMA CITY REGION IS
STILL EXPECTED TO VARY FROM 6 TO 8 INCHES NORTH AND 3 TO 5 INCHES
SOUTH, MOST OF WHICH WILL FALL AFTER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A
DRY FORECAST FOLLOWS AFTER TUESDAY MORNING WITH A COOL AIRMASS
THIS WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 41 26 36 22 / 100 80 10 10
HOBART OK 39 23 34 21 / 100 40 10 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 46 27 47 26 / 100 40 10 10
GAGE OK 28 16 31 17 / 100 40 10 10
PONCA CITY OK 35 24 34 19 / 100 100 30 10
DURANT OK 53 35 52 30 / 100 60 10 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR OKZ019-020-
024>031-038.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR OKZ007-008-012-013-
018.
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR OKZ007-
008-012-013-018.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR OKZ004>006-009>011-
014>017-021>023-033>036.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR OKZ037-
044.
TX...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR TXZ083.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
TXZ084>088.
Mesoscale discussion from the National Weather Service
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0211 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0720 PM CST SUN FEB 24 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NM...TX AND OK PANHANDLES...EXTREME SWRN KS CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 250120Z - 250715Z SUMMARY...HEAVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS FROM NORTHEAST NM INTO THE TX AND OK PANHANDLES. SNOW RATES COULD EXCEED ONE INCH PER HOUR WITHIN HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS. DISCUSSION...INTENSE HEIGHT FALLS ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING AHEAD OF POWERFUL SRN ROCKIES UPPER LOW. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPORTS THIS WITH RAPID MID LEVEL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING ACROSS THE TX SOUTH PLAINS NEAR THE LEE TROUGH WITHING VERY STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. FARTHER NORTH...CONVECTION IS DEEPENING/EXPANDING NORTH OF POLAR SURGE WHERE SFC TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE LOWER 30S JUST NORTH OF THE WIND SHIFT. 00Z SOUNDING FROM AMA EXHIBITS VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY CERTAINLY SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTION ROOTED ABOVE 700MB. LATEST LIGHTNING DATA SUPPORTS THIS EVOLUTION WITH TSTMS NOW INCREASING ACROSS THE SERN TX PANHANDLE AND MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY DEEPER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT INTO NERN NM. GIVEN THE LARGE SCALE FORCING AND STRENGTHENING UPSLOPE FLOW INTO NERN NM...VERY HEAVY SNOW...LIKELY ACCOMPANIED BY LIGHTNING...WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE CANADIAN ESCARPMENT INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. ICE PELLETS MAY INITIALLY MIX ACROSS THE ERN TX PANHANDLE INTO NWRN OK BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW AROUND 06Z.
UPDATE: Winter storm warning
UPDATE: WE ARE STILL IN A WINTER STORM WARNING. THIS WILL NOT CHANGE AT THIS TIME. WE EXPECT THE ONSET OF SNOWFALL EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. I HATE TO TRY TO SET TIMES EXACTLY BUT WE SHOULD SEE SNOW AROUND THE 0600L TO 0900L TIME FRAME. THIS WILL VARY SO DON’T HOLD US TO THESE TIMES. ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL SHOULD OCCUR FROM 0900L TO 1200L. ONCE IT STARTS TO SNOW, IT WILL NOT STOP UNTIL THE STORM SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA. IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO MEASURE DUE TO WINDS BUT THERE IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY THAT THE BLOWING SNOW WILL CAUSE 2 TO 4 FOOT DRIFTS. WE ALSO EXPECT 8-10 INCHES OF SNOW IF THE STORM TRACK VERIFIES.
