Here’s a severe weather update video address you can access, National Weather Service, Norman
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2tlJsqOyOLQ
Hazardous weather outlook, National Weather Service, Tulsa
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
102 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
100 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
…SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY…
THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
.DAY ONE…THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK…LIMITED.
AREA…GENERALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM VINITA TO MCALESTER.
ONSET…AFTER 9 PM.
DISCUSSION…
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON…AND GRADUALLY SPREAD EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
THESE STORMS MAY SPREAD INTO PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA WITH
A BRIEF PERIOD OF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL…BEFORE DISSIPATING
BY LATE EVENING OR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SHOULD THE STORMS REMAIN
SEVERE INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA…LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD
BE THE MOST LIKELY IMPACT.
SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT…
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SUNDAY…SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL…HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
MONDAY…SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL…HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY…SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY…THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION…
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO LOOK SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADOES…EXTREMELY
LARGE HAIL…AND DAMAGING WINDS BOTH SUNDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY TORNADOES
THAT DO DEVELOP SUNDAY EVENING HAVE POTENTIAL TO BECOME VIOLENT.
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA APPEARS MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED BY THE
STRONGEST STORMS ON SUNDAY. THE FAVORED LOCATION ON MONDAY WILL
DEPEND LARGELY ON WHAT HAPPENS SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER IT IS LIKELY
THAT A WELL DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE PRIME FOCUS FOR TORNADIC
POTENTIAL SHOULD IT REMAINED DEFINED INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
THE FAVORED ZONE FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER ON MONDAY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE REFINED IN LATER OUTLOOKS.
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL AGAIN SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SEVERE
STORMS ON TUESDAY…HOWEVER CONDITIONS APPEAR SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORED
FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER. THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
TO BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE FOR SEVERE WEATHER BY LATE WEEK.
THE REPEATED ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS…ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SLOW MOVING STORMS…WILL RAISE THE FLOODING POTENTIAL WITH TIME.
THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY PRESENT ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY…AND
POSSIBLY AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK.
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT…
AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER PERIOD IS EXPECTED WITH NUMEROUS
WATCHES AND WARNINGS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ADDITIONALLY…
GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER…ANY
DAMAGE RESPONSE SHOULD BE CLOSELY COORDINATED GIVEN THE PERSISTENT
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
As of 12:19 p.m. Saturday, the Hazardous Weather Outlook, National Weather Service, Norman
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1219 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1219 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN…WESTERN…
CENTRAL…AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA…AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
.DAY ONE…THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT…
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK…
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA…AND A SLIGHT RISK THAT INCLUDES
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
LOCATION…
THE MODERATE RISK AREA IS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA…WEST AND
NORTH OF A LINE FROM NEAR CHEROKEE…TO WATONGA…TO WEATHERFORD…
TO ELK CITY. THE SLIGHT RISK AREA INCLUDES MUCH OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS…GENERALLY WEST OF A LINE
FROM CHANDLER… TO SULPHUR…TO MARIETTA INCLUDING ALL OF WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS.
TIMING…
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM 4 PM
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
IMPACTS…
LARGE DAMAGING HAIL LARGER THAN BASEBALLS MAY CREATE DAMAGE TO CROPS..
ROOFS AND CARS. DAMAGING WINDS MAY DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES AND DAMAGE
STRUCTURES. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS…
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
DISCUSSION…
A DRYLINE WILL LIE ALONG THE BORDER BETWEEN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE…PLUS LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL WAVE…WILL HELP GENERATE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG INSTABILITY AND MODERATE
TO STRONG WIND SHEAR WILL PROVIDE AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS VERY FAVORABLE
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. IN THE MODERATE RISK AREA…CONDITIONS WILL
SUPPORT A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS AND TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME LESS NUMEROUS AFTER MIDNIGHT
REDUCING THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK.
PROBABILITY TABLE…
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT SUNDAY MAY 19.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA…100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR…80 PERCENT.
OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER…
NONE.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY…
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK…
AN ELEVATED RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WILL OCCUR AGAIN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY…
AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY. A CHANCE OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY…BUT THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LOW AFTER TUESDAY.
OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER…
NONE.
Later today and for the next few days, tornadoes could develop quickly, be prepared, National Weather Service
Starting today, Please monitor your Weather Radios and have several ways of getting weather info
Hazardous weather outlook, National Weather Service, Tulsa Forecast Office
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
SAT MAY 18 2013
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
SAT MAY 18 2013
THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
.DAY ONE…TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK…LIMITED.
AREA…EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
ONSET…THIS EVENING…IF AT ALL.
DISCUSSION…
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS
AFTERNOON…MAY REACH INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING BEFORE
DISSIPATING. ABUNDANT CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY OVER
EASTERN OKLAHOMA MEANS..ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO REACH OUR AREA
WILL POSE A SEVERE THREAT. THE PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS IS
LOW. THE CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD STORMS
OCCUR IS HIGH. THE MOST VULNERABLE AREA WOULD BE WEST OF HIGHWAY
75 IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT…
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SUNDAY…SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL…HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
MONDAY…SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL…HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY…THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY…THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY…THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY…THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION…
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SEVERE
WEATHER TO OUR REGION AS A STRONG SLOW MOVING UPPER SYSTEM
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LINGERS OVER THE PLAINS.
LARGE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PARAMETERS WILL MAXIMIZE OVER
EASTERN OKLAHOMA SUNDAY EVENING AND AGAIN LATE MONDAY AND
MONDAY EVENING. SEVERE WEATHER…INCLUDING TORNADOES AND
BASEBALL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUST TO 80 MILES AN HOUR WILL
BE POSSIBLE.
CURRENTLY IT LOOKS LIKE THE SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY EVENING
WILL BE PRIMARILY CONFINED TO EASTERN OKLAHOMA. THE THREAT
LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE FOR ALL OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
MAY LAST INTO TUESDAY FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS.
IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT…HEAVY RAINFALL
…LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT MAY CAUSE FLASH FLOODING.
HEAVY RAINS COULD RESULT IN RIVER FLOODING AS WELL.
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT…
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS FAIRLY CERTAIN GIVEN
FORECAST METEOROLOGICAL PARAMETERS. IMPLEMENTATION OF
PRE WEATHER EVENT ACTION PLANS SHOULD BE CONSIDERED.
Tornado threat Sunday, monitor National Weather Service for changing forecast,
Tornadoes possible today in portions of Oklahoma, National Weather Service, Norman
Hazardous weather outlook, National Weather Service, Norman
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
SAT MAY 18 2013
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
SAT MAY 18 2013
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN…WESTERN…
CENTRAL…AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA…AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
.DAY ONE…TODAY AND TONIGHT…
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK…
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA…AND A SLIGHT RISK THAT INCLUDES
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
LOCATION…
THE MODERATE RISK AREA IS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA…WEST OF A
LINE FROM NEAR FREEDOM…TO WEATHERFORD…TO ELK CITY. THE SLIGHT
RISK AREA INCLUDES MUCH OF THE WESTERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS…GENERALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM STILLWATER…TO
NORMAN…TO HENRIETTA TEXAS.
TIMING…
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM MID-
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING.
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS…
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
DISCUSSION…
A DRYLINE WILL LIE ALONG THE BORDER BETWEEN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA THIS
AFTERNOON. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE…PLUS LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
AN UPPER-LEVEL WAVE…WILL HELP GENERATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG INSTABILITY AND A SUPPORTIVE VERTICAL
WIND PROFILE WILL PROVIDE AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. IN THE MODERATE RISK AREA…CONDITIONS WILL
SUPPORT A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS…AND TORNADOES. A
CAPPING INVERSION IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN LATE THIS EVENING…AND
EVENTUALLY CUT OFF SURFACE-BASED SUPPORT FOR THESE STORMS…CAUSING
A GENERAL WEAKENING TREND. STORMS MAY CONTINUE WELL INTO THE NIGHT…
BUT THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LOW AFTER MIDNIGHT.
A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE STORMS…AND EVEN SOME RAIN
SHOWERS…WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS.
PROBABILITY TABLE…
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT SUNDAY MAY 19.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA…100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR…80 PERCENT.
OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER…
NONE.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY…
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK…
AN ELEVATED RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WILL OCCUR AGAIN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY…
AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY. A CHANCE OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY…BUT THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LOW AFTER TUESDAY.
Hazardous weather outlook, National Weather Service, Norman
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY…
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK…
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF OKLAHOMA
AND NORTH TEXAS. THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHEN A DRYLINE AND WEAK COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE
AREA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER BOTH SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. VERY LARGE HAIL…DESTRUCTIVE WINDS…AND TORNADOES WILL ALL
BE POSSIBLE. THE DETAILS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL CONTINUE TO CHANGE…SO
CHECK THE FORECAST OFTEN AND PUT YOUR SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY PLANS INTO
ACTION.
STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE OVERALL RISK
OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LOWER…BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER.
OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER…
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING… ESPECIALLY IN
LOW-LYING AND/OR POORLY DRAINED AREAS FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
