The Hazardous Weather Outlook, as of 12:10 p.m., from the National Weather Service, Norman

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1210 PM CDT THU MAR 21 2013

HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1210 PM CDT THU MAR 21 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN…WESTERN…
CENTRAL…AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA…AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE…THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT…

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK…
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS. THE SLIGHT RISK IS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM CROWELL
TO QUANAH IN WESTERN NORTH TEXAS…EASTWARD TO FREDERICK…GRANDFIELD…AND
DURANT IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA…INCLUDING THE RED RIVER VALLEY.

TIMING…
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM 5 PM TO
MIDNIGHT.

DISCUSSION…
ONGOING SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR. THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO SEE CONTINUING SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES…WILL
INTENSIFY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON…SHIFTING SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD INTO
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS BY THIS EVENING. AS THE
SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO BETTER MOISTURE OVER SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON…ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP. DESPITE WEAK INSTABILITY…FAVORABLE WIND
PROFILES SUGGEST ORGANIZED STORMS WILL BE LIKELY…WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE
STORM OR TWO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. THE MAIN HAZARDS FROM
ANY STORM THAT BECOMES SEVERE WILL BE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS…AND
DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH. BY THIS EVENING…STORMS MAY MERGE INTO A
COMPLEX…MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL GENERALLY DIMINISH
AFTER SUNSET…BUT STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
LATE EVENING AS THE COMPLEX EVENTUALLY SHIFTS OUT OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

PROBABILITY TABLE…
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT FRIDAY MAR 22.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA…100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR…30 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER…
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE HEIGHTENED ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
WINDS GUST TO NEAR 30 MPH WITH MIN RH VALUES IN THE LOWER 20S.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY…

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK…
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN POSITIONED ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE FRIDAY EVENING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND…WITH SOME ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER…
WITH A COLDER AIRMASS SPREADING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS…THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR A RAIN-SNOW MIX ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION
IS EXPECTED…ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS APPEAR THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW 2 INCHES
AT THE MOMENT.

Thank you for joining our conversation on Oklahoma Weather Blog. We encourage your discussion but ask that you stay within the bounds of our commenting and posting policy.