Area forecast discussion, National Weather Service, Norman
…
A SURFACE RIDGE CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN NORTHERN
PLAINS TO NEAR THE MISS RIVER VALLEY. NOT MUCH WILL CHANGE
TODAY AND TEMPS WILL EXCEED 60 FOR NEARLY THE ENTIRE FA UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. A COLDER MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TRAVERSES THE MIDWEST. THIS AIR MASS WILL PUSH INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST WED MORN…WITH SOME CAA EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION. HIGH TEMPS FOR WED WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER
AS A RESULT.
BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING…THE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY ZONAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND A SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL NEAR THE PANHANDLE. A LEE LOW NEAR
EASTERN CO WILL RESULT IN RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING THROUGH
THURSDAY. TEMPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL CLIMB INTO AT LEAST
THE LOW 80S ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TX AND SOUTHWESTERN OK THURSDAY
AFTERNOON…WHERE 850MB TEMPS WILL EXCEED 20C WITHIN STRONG
DOWNSLOPE FLOW. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERING THE PANHANDLE THURSDAY
EVENING…IN ADDITION TO ISENTROPIC ASCENT…WILL SUPPORT LIKELY
POPS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF I35 THROUGH THURS NIGHT. A MODEST
COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY AND THIS COMBINED WITH
STRATUS WILL DEFINITELY KEEP TEMPS BELOW AVERAGE FRI AFTERNOON.
THE NEXT SIGNFICANT FEATURE TO IMPACT THE REGION WILL BE A MID TO
UPPER TROUGH THAT DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES SATURDAY…MOVING
SOMEWHERE NEAR NORTHERN OK SUNDAY. FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE CHC POPS AND SNOW AT LEAST NORTH OF I40 WITH THIS FEATURE
GIVEN DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN DETERMINISTIC MODELS…WITH
AT LEAST LIGHT ACCUMULATION VERY POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN OK.
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