Hazardous weather outlook, National Weather Service, Tulsa Forecast Office

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1259 PM CST SAT MAR 9 2013

ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
100 PM CST SAT MAR 9 2013

…SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL INCREASES THIS EVENING…

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE…THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
RISK…LIMITED.
AREA…PRIMARILY SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
ONSET…AFTER 7 PM.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK…ELEVATED.
AREA…ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 44.
ONSET…AFTER 6 PM.

HEAVY RAIN.
RISK…ELEVATED.
AREA…SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 44.
ONSET…THIS EVENING.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
RISK…LIMITED.
AREA…ALL EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET…ONGOING.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
RISK…LIMITED.
AREA…FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET…ONGOING.

DISCUSSION…
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ALONG A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING
ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA.  THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD…
WITH AN INTENSIFICATION AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE EXPECTED
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.  THIS
REGION OF STRONGER STORMS WILL THEN SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD
THIS EVENING AND RAISE THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL…ESPECIALLY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.  INSTABILITY WILL QUICKLY
LESSEN TOWARD WESTERN ARKANSAS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS…AND
THIS IS EXPECTED TO REDUCE THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WITH
EASTWARD EXTENT.
WINDS ALOFT ARE STRONG ALLOWING FOR A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
WIND SHEAR…AND A SURGE OF EVEN STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS IS
EXPECTED TO ROTATE FROM CENTRAL TEXAS THOUGH EASTERN OKLAHOMA
DURING THE EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.  AS THIS OCCURS…
THERE MAY DEVELOP A PERIOD OF HIGHER WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL ALONG
WITH AN UPTICK IN TORNADIC POTENTIAL.  THIS POTENTIAL CONTINUES
TO BE SHOWN IN VARIOUS SHORT TERM DATA…AND SHOULD THIS
SCENARIO UNFOLD…THEN A SWATH OF HIGHER SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
IS LIKELY.  THE SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
TO SHOW THIS POTENTIAL ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44…WITH
A SLIGHT DECREASE TOWARD WESTERN ARKANSAS WHERE THE AFOREMENTIONED
LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL REDUCE THE POTENTIAL.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT…
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SUNDAY…THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL…HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY…NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION…
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING EARLY SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH WESTERN ARKANSAS.  STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE EASTWARD WITH THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ENDING
FOR THE FORECAST AREA BY NOON SUNDAY.  BREEZY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.  DRY AND MILD
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

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