Area forecast discussion, from the National Weather Service, Norman

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
321 PM CST TUE MAR 5 2013

.DISCUSSION…
TEMPS HAVE BEEN MUCH COOLER TODAY THAN MONDAY…WITH HIGHS THROUGH 2
PM CST IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE TEXOMA
REGION. NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE REMAINED GUSTY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON…WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 KTS FROM WESTERN NORTH TX THROUGH
CENTRAL AND WESTERN OK. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE
EVENING…WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LOWS IN THE LOW 20S ACROSS NORTHERN
OK TO THE MID TO UPPER 20S ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK…UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE PLAINS…WITH DRY WEATHER AND WINDS SHIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTH
THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL USHER IN A SLOW WARMING TREND INTO THE
WEEKEND.

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN STILL LIES WITH THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH/STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. RECENT SOLUTION FROM THE 05/12Z ECMWF HAS COME IN SLIGHTLY
MORE BULLISH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS…AS WELL AS THE 05/12Z GFS. AS WITH
PREVIOUS RUNS…THE ECMWF IS STILL TRACKING THE 500MB LOW A TAD
FARTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS…FROM SOUTHEAST CO THROUGH KS. THE
05/12Z GFSENSEMBLE MEAN APPEARS TO BE A DECENT COMPROMISE BETWEEN
THE TWO WITH THE PATH THE 500MB LOW ACROSS LIFTING ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES ALONG SOUTHERN KS.

BESIDES THE MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION FROM THE ECMWF…PRECIP STILL
LOOKS TO BEGIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA. CHANCES WILL INCREASE THROUGH SATURDAY…CONTINUING
THROUGH SUNDAY. WITH REGARDS TO STRONG TO SEVERE POTENTIAL…DEEP
LAYER SHEAR…0-6KM 60 TO 80KTS…WILL INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTHERN TX AND SOUTHWESTERN OK. WITH THE DEEPENING 500MB
TROUGH…THE 25OMB JET AXIS WILL POSITION ITSELF SOUTH OF THE RED
RIVER…WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OVER SOUTHWESTERN OK/WESTERN NORTH
TX. AS OF NOW… IT LOOKS APPEARS SURFACE HEATING WILL ONLY OCCUR
ALONG A NARROW CORRIDOR ACROSS NORTHERN TX AND WESTERN OK SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH A DRY LINE FORMING
ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE…KEEPING IT JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
GFSBUFR PROFILES FROM WESTERN/CENTRAL OK AND NORTHERN TX INDICATE
SKINNY CAPE PROFILES…WHICH COULD LIMIT DEVELOPMENT…BUT GIVEN THE
DYNAMICS IN PLACE…DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS A POSSIBILITY…
SUPPORTING STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

GIVEN THE SUBTLE DIFFERENCES THAT REMAIN BETWEEN GUIDANCE…
INITIATION/STORM TYPE ARE STILL A STRUGGLE TO LOCK DOWN…AT THE
MOMENT…WE COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP SATURDAY
AFTERNOON…TRANSITIONING INTO A LINE LATER IN THE EVENING.

OVERALL…A DECENT/BENEFICIAL RAIN WILL BE A WELCOME SITE ONCE AGAIN
TO THE REGION.

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