Area forecast discussion, National Weather Service, Norman

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
348 PM CST MON MAR 4 2013

.DISCUSSION…
NEAR TERM…TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY…
BREEZY NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES HAVE BEEN THE
STORY TODAY. A WEAK PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH DIPPED ACROSS OKLAHOMA
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING…SETTLING ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY
INTO NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. VIS SAT IMAGERY SHOWS
SOME SNOW COVER HOLDING ON ACROSS FAR NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA…
FROM WOODWARD…WOODS…AND EASTERN ALFALFA COUNTIES. DUE TO THE
SNOW COVER…TEMPS HAVE STRUGGLED…WITH ALVA ONLY REACHING A
HIGH OF 42 THROUGH 3 PM CST. THIS IS A FAR CRY FROM THE 60S IN
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND FARTHER FROM THE 70S AND 80S ACROSS TEXOMA.

FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN HEIGHTENED ACROSS SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING…DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF BREEZY WINDS…VERY WARM
TEMPS AND RH VALUES IN THE TEENS.

FOR TONIGHT…CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES THE COLD FRONT FROM
NEAR SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. ALONG THIS
FRONT…A FEW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA…WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA NEAR AND AFTER MIDNIGHT…NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED…WITH PRECIP CHANCES TAPERING OFF THROUGH SUNRISE. WINDS
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT…WITH THE STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT FIELD…EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20
MPH…GUSTING TO NEAR 35 MPH FROM 00 TO 09Z. BETWEEN 03 AND
06Z…EXPECT 3HR PRESSURE RISES OF 6 TO 9 MB FROM SOUTHWESTERN OK
THROUGH EASTERN EDGE OF THE CAP ROCK.

TUESDAY WILL BE MARKEDLY COOLER…WITH BREEZY NORTH WINDS
PERSISTING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON…EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO
50S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK…WITH TEMPS STEADILY WARMING AND WINDS SHIFTING OUT OF THE
SOUTH.

LONG TERM…THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY…
A RAINY/STORMY WEEKEND STILL LOOKS ON TAP FOR THE WEEKEND…WITH
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MAKING STRIDES ON AGREEMENT. THE ECMWF IS
STILL A BIT MORE BULLISH WITH THE 500MB TROUGH…BUT BOTH
SOLUTIONS ARE LOOKING GOOD FOR A DECENT RAIN ACROSS THE REGION
SAT-SUN. STILL A FEW DAYS TOO FAR OUT TO LOCK DOWN ANY SEVERE
POTENTIAL…HOWEVER…GIVEN THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
EXPECTED…AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE 50S AND 60S…AND 0-6KM SHEAR
BETWEEN 50 AND 60 KTS…APPROXIMATELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON…DEEP
CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE…SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER…AS ALWAYS…FORECASTS CHANGE…SO DETAILS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE IRONED OUT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

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