Mesoscale discussion from the National Weather Service
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0211 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0720 PM CST SUN FEB 24 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NM...TX AND OK PANHANDLES...EXTREME SWRN KS CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 250120Z - 250715Z SUMMARY...HEAVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS FROM NORTHEAST NM INTO THE TX AND OK PANHANDLES. SNOW RATES COULD EXCEED ONE INCH PER HOUR WITHIN HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS. DISCUSSION...INTENSE HEIGHT FALLS ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING AHEAD OF POWERFUL SRN ROCKIES UPPER LOW. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPORTS THIS WITH RAPID MID LEVEL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING ACROSS THE TX SOUTH PLAINS NEAR THE LEE TROUGH WITHING VERY STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. FARTHER NORTH...CONVECTION IS DEEPENING/EXPANDING NORTH OF POLAR SURGE WHERE SFC TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE LOWER 30S JUST NORTH OF THE WIND SHIFT. 00Z SOUNDING FROM AMA EXHIBITS VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY CERTAINLY SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTION ROOTED ABOVE 700MB. LATEST LIGHTNING DATA SUPPORTS THIS EVOLUTION WITH TSTMS NOW INCREASING ACROSS THE SERN TX PANHANDLE AND MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY DEEPER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT INTO NERN NM. GIVEN THE LARGE SCALE FORCING AND STRENGTHENING UPSLOPE FLOW INTO NERN NM...VERY HEAVY SNOW...LIKELY ACCOMPANIED BY LIGHTNING...WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE CANADIAN ESCARPMENT INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. ICE PELLETS MAY INITIALLY MIX ACROSS THE ERN TX PANHANDLE INTO NWRN OK BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW AROUND 06Z.
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