Area forecast discussion from the National Weather Service
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
554 PM CST SUN FEB 24 2013
.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN AT ALL SITES.
FOR KOKC...KOUN...AND KPNC...VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z...THEN BECOME IFR BY 15Z. RA WILL
MOVE IN 06-12Z. SWITCH OVER TO -SN APPEARS TO BE 17-21Z
WITH LIFR CONDITIONS AND SN/+SN/BLSN POSSIBLE TOWARDS
23Z MONDAY. CHANCES FOR THUNDER APPEAR TO BE TOO LOW
TO MENTION.
FOR KSPS AND KLAW...VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH
AT LEAST 05Z...THEN BECOME IFR BY 12Z. RA/TSRA WILL MOVE
IN 04-12Z. SWITCH OVER TO -SN APPEARS TO BE 15-20Z WITH
GUSTY NORTH WINDS DEVELOPING. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
LIFR CONDITIONS WITH SN/BLSN AFTER 18Z...ESPECIALLY
NEAR KLAW.
AT OTHER SITES...IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN
OKLAHOMA BY 08Z WITH ALL LOCATIONS EXPERIENCING LIFR/VLIFR/
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH SN/+SN/BLSN BY 14Z.
MBS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CST SUN FEB 24 2013/
DISCUSSION...
MAIN CHANGE TO GOING FORECAST WAS TO MAKE CHANGES TO SNOW
ACCUMULATION FORECAST AND UPGRADE NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TO A
BLIZZARD WARNING. ALL MODELS HAVE COME INTO VERY GOOD AGREEMENT TO
MID-UPPER LEVEL MASS/THERMAL FIELDS AND RESULTING TRACK OF STORM
SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THEY VARY SIGNIFICANTLY ON SNOW AMOUNTS/QPF.
THIS WILL BE A VERY STRONG STORM SYSTEM BUT IS FORECAST TO BE
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE. FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE A BLEND OF
ECM/GFS WITH WELL OVER A 12 INCHES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION OVER
NORTHWEST INTO NORTH-CENTRAL PARTS OF OKLAHOMA. WE DID LOWER THE
SOME OF THE FORECAST TOTALS ON SOUTHERN EDGE OF SNOW FORECAST.
THERE WILL BE A VERY TIGHT SNOW GRADIENT AND HIGH FORECAST-BUST
POTENTIAL FROM VERNON-LAWTON-OKC METRO. WE DECIDED TO GO ON UPPER
END OF MODEL FORECASTS ON SOUTHERN GRADIENT GIVEN STRENGTH OF
SYSTEM AND CONVECTIVE SNOW POTENTIAL. THERE WILL BE QUITE A BIT
MELTING GOING ON NEAR I-44 CORRIDOR BUT SNOW BURSTS COULD EASILY
PUT DOWN 2-4 INCHES IN A VERY SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME.
CALMING CONDITIONS TUESDAY ON WITH DRY AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 63 41 42 26 / 10 80 100 80
HOBART OK 63 38 39 23 / 10 80 90 40
WICHITA FALLS TX 68 42 49 27 / 10 70 70 40
GAGE OK 49 30 32 16 / 30 100 100 40
PONCA CITY OK 49 36 39 24 / 10 90 100 100
DURANT OK 64 43 52 35 / 10 60 80 60
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY
FOR OKZ019-020-024>031-038.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST MONDAY
FOR OKZ007-008-012-013-018.
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR OKZ007-
008-012-013-018.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR OKZ004>006-009>011-
014>017-021>023-033>036.
TX...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR TXZ083.
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