Hazardous weather outlook, from the National Weather Service, Norman

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK…UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
607 PM CST WED FEB 20 2013

HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
607 PM CST WED FEB 20 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN…WESTERN…
CENTRAL…AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA…AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE…TONIGHT…

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK…
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS.

LOCATION…
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM HOLLIS…
TO ALTUS…TO LAWTON AND ARDMORE…AND INCLUDES ALL OF WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS.

TIMING…
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT THROUGH 7 AM CST THURSDAY.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS…
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

DISCUSSION…
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT…MAINLY RAIN
SOUTH OF I-40 WITH A LIGHT WINTRY MIX NORTH OF I-40. UP TO AN ADDITIONAL
INCH OR TWO OF SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING NORTH OF A WOODWARD TO
STILLWATER LINE.

A MORE POTENT LOW PRESSURE STORM SYSTEM WILL SURGE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AS THIS OCCURS…STRONG FORCING AND
INCREASING ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO GREATER THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. WHILE INSTABILITY
WILL BE MARGINAL…AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST WITH
THE STRONGEST STORMS THAT FORM LATER TONIGHT.

IF SEVERE STORMS OCCUR LATER TONIGHT…HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS
WOULD THE MAIN HAZARD. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL.

FARTHER NORTH…COLD AIR WILL SURGE INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA NEAR
THE CENTER OF THE LOW PRESSURE STORM SYSTEM OVERNIGHT. WITH STRONG
FORCING IN THIS AREA AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO BE NEAR OR JUST
BELOW FREEZING…EXPECT HEAVY WINTRY PRECIPITATION IN THIS AREA WITH
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.

PROBABILITY TABLE…
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CST THURSDAY FEB 21.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA…100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR…30 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER…
A DANGEROUS WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA…EXPECT HEAVY SNOW
TO RESULT IN ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES NORTH OF
A CLINTON TO STILLWATER LINE AFTER MIDNIGHT. AVOID TRAVEL IN THIS
AREA TONIGHT IF AT ALL POSSIBLE. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL…PREPARE FOR SNOW
PACKED ROADS AND TRAVEL DELAYS. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY…

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK…
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS…
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH…AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THURSDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT EXPECTED.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE NEXT WEDNESDAY ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER…
A WINTER STORM WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND
WESTERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH NOON THURSDAY. PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOWFALL ARE
EXPECTED…WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER PARTS OF NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA.
AVOID TRAVEL IN THIS AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS SNOW PACKED ROADS AND
REDUCED VISIBILITIES WILL MAKE FOR VERY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

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