Hazardous weather outlook, from the National Weather Service, Norman

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1155 AM CST WED FEB 20 2013

HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1155 AM CST WED FEB 20 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN…WESTERN…
CENTRAL…AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA…AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE…THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT…

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK…
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION…
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM HOLLIS…
TO ALTUS…TO LAWTON AND ARDMORE…AND INCLUDES ALL OF WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS.

TIMING…
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS…
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS FROM THIS EVENING
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

DISCUSSION…
A BROAD UPPER WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN…CENTRAL…AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING. RECENTLY…SOME
MID LEVEL DRY AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE REGION…AND HAS LEAD TO WEAK CONVECTIVE
SLEET SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING…THOUGH IT SHOULD BECOME MORE ISOLATED
WITH TIME.

MEANWHILE…LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE FROM OKLAHOMA CITY NORTHWARD.
WHILE MOST SNOW IS MELTING ONCE REACHING THE GROUND…ISOLATED AREAS OF HEAVIER
SNOW AND LOCATIONS THAT REMAIN AT OR BELOW FREEZING WILL SEE AN ADDITIONAL ONE
OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH THIS EVENING.

A SECOND MORE POTENT UPPER STORM SYSTEM WILL SURGE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. AS THIS OCCURS…STRONG FORCING AND INCREASING ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO GREATER THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. WHILE INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL…AT LEAST SOME
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS THAT FORM THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

FARTHER NORTH…COLD AIR WILL SURGE INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA NEAR
THE CENTER OF THE UPPER STORM SYSTEM OVERNIGHT. WITH STRONG UPPER FORCING IN THIS
AREA AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO FALL BELOW FREEZING…EXPECT HEAVY
SNOWFALL IN THIS AREA WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.

PROBABILITY TABLE…
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CST THURSDAY FEB 21.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA…100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR…30 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER…
A DANGEROUS WINTER STORM IS BEARING DOWN ON PARTS OF THE AREA. A
WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THROUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW HAS ALREADY
RESULTED IN 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION TODAY. AS A STRONG UPPER
STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT…EXPECT HEAVY SNOW TO LEAD
TO ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES. AVOID TRAVEL IN THIS
AREA TONIGHT IF AT ALL POSSIBLE. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL…PREPARE FOR SNOW
PACKED ROADS AND TRAVEL DELAYS. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AS MODERATE SNOWS HAVE LEAD TO
SLICK SPOTS ON AREA ROADWAYS. EXERCISE CAUTION IF TRAVELING IN ANY OF THESE
AREAS TODAY OR TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY…

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK…
ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. LARGE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS
THAT OCCUR…BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY…AND
AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS IMPACT THE
REGION.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER…
A WINTER STORM WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND
WESTERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOWFALL ARE
EXPECTED…WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER PARTS OF NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA.
AVOID TRAVEL IN THIS AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS SNOW PACKED ROADS AND REDUCED
VISIBILITIES WILL MAKE FOR VERY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

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