Hazardous weather outlook, from the National Weather Service, Tulsa

ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
450 PM CST TUE FEB 19 2013

…WINTER WEATHER LIKELY BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT…

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE…TONIGHT.

WINTER WEATHER.
SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION.
RISK…LIMITED.
AREA…NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
ONSET…AFTER 3 AM.

DISCUSSION…
PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST…AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AND CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES INITIALLY WILL BE COLD ENOUGH ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA TO SUPPORT THE THREAT FOR A WINTRY MIX OF
FREEZING RAIN…SLEET…OR SNOW AFTER 3 AM. NO SIGNIFICANT WINTER
WEATHER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED PRIOR TO SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT…
SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY…WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL…HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY…THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL…WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL…
           HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY…NO HAZARDS.
SUNDAY…THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
MONDAY…THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL…VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL…
         HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION…
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WEDNESDAY MORNING…WITH SNOW AND SLEET
ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. MOST OF THIS ACCUMULATION WILL OCCUR PRIOR TO
NOON…WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG AND WEST OF
HIGHWAY 75. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RISE ABOVE FREEZING
PRIOR TO THE PRECIPITATION STARTING…BUT THEN COOL QUICKLY
ALLOWING THE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW AND SLEET ONCE THE PRECIPITATION
BECOMES HEAVIER. THIS TYPE OF TEMPERATURE CHANGE CAN MAKE FOR
WIDELY VARYING SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS. PRECIPITATION WILL
TAPER OFF DURING THE AFTERNOON…ALLOWING TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING BRIEFLY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WILL MARK THE SECOND ROUND
OF WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM. WIDESPREAD
AND HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND EXIT NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AGAIN…
LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE KEY IN DETERMINING THE PRECIPITATION
TYPE…WITH AREAS NEAR THE OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS BORDER…FAR
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA…AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THE MOST LIKELY TO
EXPERIENCE ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER. A LESSER POTENTIAL EXISTS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA…DEPENDING ON
WHETHER TEMPERATURES CAN DROP BELOW FREEZING OR NOT.

CURRENTLY…SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN APPEAR THE MOST LIKELY
WEATHER TYPES FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
ALSO…THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE EXPERIENCING INTENSE LIFT WHICH WILL
NOT ONLY ALLOW FOR AREAS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION…BUT ALSO ALLOW
FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

THE WEATHER SCENARIO DESCRIBED ABOVE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WOULD ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS…PRIMARILY
ACROSS WESTERN ARKANSAS. ADDITIONALLY…GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL DEVELOP DURING THIS SAME TIME FRAME. THE COMBINATION OF ANY
ICE ACCUMULATIONS AND WINDS WILL IMPACT THE POWER GRID ACROSS
WESTERN ARKANSAS AND POSSIBLY FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA…WITH HIGH
IMPACTS POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. WHILE THE FORECAST
WILL CONTINUE TO BE UPDATED…THE PREPARATIONS FOR PROLONGED
POWER OUTAGES SHOULD BEGIN NOW ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT…
PROLONGED POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CONSIDER MOBILIZING POWER
GENERATION ASSETS.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA…ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 412…SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY
MONITOR FORECASTS FOR POSSIBLE EXPANSION OF ICE ACCUMULATIONS.

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