Discussion from the National Weather Service, Amarillo, Texas (coverage area includes the Oklahoma Panhandle)
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT: THE BEST COMBINATION OF DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE
WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. AS THIS OCCURS, SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS ALL OF THE PANHANDLES WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCES BEING SOUTHEAST OF A GUYMON TO HEREFORD LINE. DUE TO STRONG
DYNAMICS IN PLACE, SOME OF THE SNOW COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES. THE
TIME FRAME FOR THE HEAVIEST SNOW LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 8 AM AND 3 PM.
MOISTURE WILL BE LOWEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE PANHANDLES. AS A RESULT, THESE LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE THE
LIGHTEST SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS, BUT TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL
STILL BE BETWEEN 2 AND 5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 6
INCHES. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF
THE PANHANDLES WHERE TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE BETWEEN 6
AND 9 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THE HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN AN AREA EAST OF A LINE FROM
CANADIAN TO PAMPA TO CLAUDE AND GENERALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
IT’S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION SOME LOCATION IN THIS AREA COULD
RECEIVE AS MUCH AS 10 INCHES OF SNOW. WE DO HAVE SOME CONCERN THAT
MODELS HAVE BEGUN TRENDING SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH. THIS COULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE THE SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SHIFT THE HIGHER TOTALS
FARTHER NORTH. WE’LL NEED TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY IN CASE THE WINTER
STORM WARNING NEEDS TO BE ADJUSTED. WE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT
EVERY LOCATION WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME SNOW OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS,
AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE.
Source: National Weather Service, Amarillo, Texas Forecast Office
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