Area forecast discussion from the National Weather Service, Tulsa

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
342 PM CST MON FEB 11 2013

.DISCUSSION…
STILL SEEMS TO BE MORE QUESTIONS THAN ANSWERS REGARDING WINTER
WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR OUR AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WHAT
DOES APPEAR NEARLY CERTAIN IS THAT A SWATH OF MUCH NEEDED
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND SPREAD OVER MUCH OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST ARKANSAS DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. THE LOCATION OF MAIN PRECIP IS ALSO BECOMING MORE IN
FOCUS WITH AXIS EXPECTED TO OCCUR JUST NORTH OF FORECAST TRACK OF
STRONG VORTICITY MAX EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS OK/AR…
THIS WILL GENERALLY FALL BETWEEN US 412 AND I-40 WITH NEAR 0.5 TO
0.75 INCHES H20 EQUIVALENT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE CHALLENGE REMAINS IN THE THERMAL PROFILES ESPECIALLY IN THE
LOWEST LEVELS DURING MOST OF TUESDAY AND EVEN PART OF TUESDAY
NIGHT. WHILE TEMPS AT 850MB AND ABOVE ARE SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW
THROUGHOUT THE EVENT…THE MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS KEEPING
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS WELL ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL LATE TUE NIGHT.
THERE IS HOWEVER SOME INDICATION THAT WITHIN HEAVIEST PRECIP BAND
THE TEMPS COULD FALL INTO MID 30S AND AT LEAST A MIX WILL OCCUR
WEST OF TULSA TUE AFTERNOON. EVENTUALLY ENOUGH DYNAMIC COOLING OF
THE COLUMN SHOULD TAKE PLACE TO CHANGE TO MOSTLY WET SNOW IN AREAS
N OF I-40 DURING TUESDAY EVENING…BY WHICH TIME THE HEAVIEST
PRECIP SHIFTS INTO FAR NE OKLAHOMA AND NW ARKANSAS. THESE AREAS
STAND THE BEST SHOT AT SEEING A COUPLE OF INCHES OF WET SNOW ACCUM
TUE EVENING. SINCE THIS IS A THIRD PERIOD ISSUE MAINLY…WILL HOLD
OFF ON ADVISORY…CONFIDENCE IN 4 INCH PLUS REMAINS FAR TOO LOW
FOR A WATCH.

SNOW WILL END AFTER 06Z TUE NIGHT AND WED WILL BE DRY WITH WARMER
TEMPS. ANY POTENTIAL SNOW COVER COULD HOLD WARM UP DOWN A BIT ON
WED…BUT THURSDAY SHOULD SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN THE AFTERNOON
AS SFC WINDS VEER AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT. COLDER AIR ARRIVES
FRIDAY AS LONGWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS IN THE UPPER MIDWEST. THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW
FRIDAY. GFS REMAINS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE IN DEEPENING THE SFC LOW
TO OUR SOUTH AND THUS GENERATES CONSIDERABLY MORE PRECIP IN THE
COLD AIR. WILL DISREGARD THIS FOR NOW AND JUST MENTION A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW. QUICK WARMUP NEXT WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER
SYSTEM BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS BY MONDAY.

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