From Gary McManus, Oklahoma Climatological Survey:
The U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook this morning didn’t improve over the map released two weeks ago, at least for Oklahoma.
The CPC forecasters still have Oklahoma in that “drought persisting or intensifying” area through the end of April.
If you look at their reasoning, they acknowledge the moisture in the short-term, but they see drier conditions over the long term. Here it is in their words:
“Widespread precipitation during late December and early January was
replaced by much drier conditions since mid-month, halting drought
improvement in Texas and actually producing some deterioration in
central sections. Precipitation is expected to return during the next
week, but be mainly confined to eastern sections. Then, the CPC 6-10
and 8-14 day outlooks tilt the odds in favor of above median
precipitation in southern and eastern areas. However, the CPC (Feb-Apr)
outlooks and the (forecast) models all indicate enhanced chances of
below median precipitation for the southern Plains, with the updated
monthly precipitation outlook indicating subnormal precipitation along
the Gulf and equal chances elsewhere. Monthly and seasonal temperatures
strongly tilt toward above normal values. Although short-term forecasts
indicate rainfall to return, the longer-term guidance points to overall
drier conditions. Accordingly, although some short-term improvements
may occur in Texas during mid to late February, drought should persist
or redevelop in Texas and the southern Plains later in the period,
except in extreme eastern Texas. Forecast confidence for the southern
Plains is moderate.”
So in their view, some short-term improvements will occur (with the coming rain),
but drought will persist or redevelop as we get later into the spring.
Always remember, these outlooks are not perfect. But they’re the
best the science has to offer. There is always hope we can change things
around and knock this drought out of here.