92.14 percent of Oklahoma in extreme to exceptional drought, U.S. Drought Monitor report
“January Defies Dry Trend” by Gary McManus
January Defies Dry Trend
Gary McManus
Associate State Climatologist
January seemed destined to finish on the dry side of normal, just as the eight months previous to it had, before a late-month burst of spring changed its fortunes. Tornado watches covered much of the eastern two-thirds of the state on the 29th, a by-product of the storm system that also dumped 1-3 inches of rain across parts of that same area. There were no confirmed tornadoes in Oklahoma, but reports of large hail and wind damage were scattered across the state. The late-month frenzy from Mother Nature brought January’s precipitation total 0.2 inches above normal and a final statewide average of 1.6 inches according to data from the Oklahoma Mesonet. That ranks the month as the 45th wettest January since records began in 1895, and the first month since April 2012 to finish with above normal precipitation. Not all areas of the state were so fortunate. Parts of western Oklahoma finished the month with less than an inch of rainfall. Combined with December, the first two months of winter finished 0.9 inches below normal at 2.5 inches, the 39th driest December-January period on record. Coming off the driest May-December on record for the state, the May-January statewide average of 15.4 inches ranked as the third driest such period on record, behind similar periods in 1910-11 (14.5 inches) and 1952-53 (15.2 inches).
To the delight of some and the chagrin of cold-weather enthusiasts, January’s temperatures did continue a trend. The month became the 28th out of the last 34 to finish warmer than normal, a rarely-interrupted streak that began with April 2010. Included in that streak are the warmest month (July 2011) and summer (2011) for any state on record, the warmest Oklahoma spring (2012) on record, and the warmest Oklahoma year (2012) on record. According to preliminary data from the Oklahoma Mesonet, the statewide average temperature was 40 degrees, 3.9 degrees above normal and the 28th warmest January on record. Despite the lofty ranking, there were still a few bouts with frigid weather. Kenton recorded the state’s lowest temperature for the month at minus 10 degrees on the second. That is the lowest temperature recorded by the Mesonet since Nowata broke the state’s all-time low temperature record with minus 31 degrees back on Feb. 10, 2011. The highest temperature of the month was 81 degrees, recorded at Grandfield on the 28th. The first two months of winter had a statewide average temperature of 40.9 degrees, 3.3 degrees above normal and ranked as the 17th warmest December-January period on record.
The U.S. Drought Monitor ended the month with 92 percent of the state in at least Extreme (D3) drought, and 37 percent of that in the Exceptional (D4) category. The Drought Monitor’s intensity scale slides from moderate-severe-extreme-exceptional, with exceptional being the worst category. Oklahoma reservoirs, some of which have fallen to historic lows, made some gains in eastern Oklahoma. Broken Bow Lake in McCurtain County rose to 77 percent of capacity, a nine percent rise in about a month’s time. Hugo Lake in Choctaw County rose from 37 percent to 61 percent. The lakes farther to the west still remain near those historic lows, however. The reservoir at Altus-Lugert remained at 16 percent of capacity, and nearby Tom Steed Lake hovered at 35 percent. Oklahoma City and Norman have both implemented mandatory water conservation guidelines to their water customers due to low lake levels.
Moisture looks a bit scarce in the short term. Farther out, the latest temperature outlook for February from the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) indicates increased odds of above normal temperatures across the entire state. The CPC precipitation outlook points to equal odds of above-, below- or near-normal moisture totals. CPC’s U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook for February-April sees drought either persisting or intensifying across the entire state. The CPC outlook for the primary rainy season in Oklahoma, April-June, calls for increased odds of above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation.
Hazardous weather outlook, from the National Weather Service, Norman
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1121 AM CST THU JAN 31 2013
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN…WESTERN…
CENTRAL…AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA…AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
.DAY ONE…THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT…
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK…
NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION…
A SHALLOW COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER…LIMITED MOISTURE…
AND A STABLE AIR MASS WILL SUPPRESS ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
PROBABILITY TABLE…
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CST FRIDAY FEB 1.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA…ZERO PERCENT.
OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER…
NONE.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY…
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK…
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE OVER FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE
MONDAY.
OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER…
NONE.
Since Oct. 2010, statewide average precip for Oklahoma is 26 inches below normal, according to Gary McManus, Oklahoma Climatological Survey
The current drought period dates back to October 2010. If you look at the rainfall statistics going back that far, 28 months ago, you see the driest such period on record with a statewide average of 56.77 inches. That sounds deceptively impressive, since the normal for that time frame would be 83 inches. So since October 1, 2010, the statewide average deficit is 26 inches. The statistics are obviously much worse for western Oklahoma, which has seen significant drought remain in place since that time.
Source: Gary McManus, Oklahoma Climatological Survey.
FYI: National Weather Service, Tulsa damage survey of Arkansas EF2 and EF1 tornadoes in their coverage area Tuesday
(NOTE: THE EF2 tornado mentioned below for Natural Dam, Arkansas, developed in extreme northeastern Sequoyah County in Oklahoma.
ALSO, From Gary McManus of the Oklahoma Climatological Survey: That’s the first tornado to touchdown in Oklahoma since an EF1 twister touched down 3 miles SW of Healdton on October 13, 2012. That twister injured two people, but luckily no fatalities. The January 29 tornado of this year is only the 17th confirmed twister to touch down in the state during the year’s first month.)
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
…NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR 1/29/2013 TORNADO EVENT…
.UPDATE…ADDITIONAL DETAILS FOR THE NATURAL DAM TORNADO ARE INCLUDED
AND TO AN ADDITIONAL TORNADO WAS CONFIRMED DURING THIS EVENT…
.NATURAL DAM ARKANSAS TORNADO…
RATING: EF-2
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 110-120 MPH
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 9 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 700 YARDS
FATALITIES: 0
INJURIES: 0
START DATE: JANUARY 29 2013
START TIME: 255 PM CST
START LOCATION: 3.4 NE SHORT / SEQUOYAH COUNTY / OK
START LAT/LON: 35.605 / -94.498
END DATE: JANUARY 29 2013
END TIME: 304 PM CST
END LOCATION: 3.9 N NATURAL DAM / CRAWFORD COUNTY / AR
END LAT/LON: 35.704 / -94.394
SURVEY SUMMARY; THIS TORNADO DEVELOPED IN EXTREME NORTHEASTERN
SEQUOYAH COUNTY OKLAHOMA AND MOVED RAPIDLY NORTHEAST TO THE NORTH
OF NATURAL DAM ARKANSAS IN CRAWFORD COUNTY. IT MOVED THROUGH RURAL
AREAS OF BOTH COUNTIES SNAPPING AND UPROOTING MANY HARDWOOD AND
SOFTWOOD TREES IN THE PATH. THE MOST PRONOUNCED DAMAGE TO TREES
OCCURRED ON RAINWATER ROAD NORTHWEST OF UNIONTOWN IN CRAWFORD
COUNTY WHERE THE TORNADO TORE A PATH THROUGH THE WOODS OF MORE
THAN ONE THIRD OF A MILE WIDE. POWER POLES WERE SNAPPED AND A
HOUSE HAD MINOR DAMAGE WITHIN THE 9 MILE LONG PATH.
.ELKINS ARKANSAS TORNADO…
RATING: EF-1
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 95 TO 105 MPH
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 4.2 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 400 YARDS
FATALITIES: 0
INJURIES: 0
START DATE: JANUARY 29 2013
START TIME: 334 PM CST
START LOCATION: 3.5 WNW ELKINS / WASHINGTON COUNTY / AR
START LAT/LON: 36.024 / -94.064
END DATE: JANUARY 29 2013
END TIME: 339 PM CST
END LOCATION: 4.5 N ELKINS / WASHINGTON COUNTY / AR
END LAT/LON: 36.071 / -94.004
SURVEY SUMMARY: THIS TORNADO DAMAGED 40 TO 50 HOMES…THE WORST
OF WHICH HAD PORTIONS OF THEIR ROOFS BLOWN OFF. NUMEROUS TREES
WERE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED AND POWER POLES WERE BLOWN DOWN. SEVERAL
CHICKEN HOUSES AND OUTBUILDINGS WERE DESTROYED.
EF SCALE: THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE CLASSIFIES TORNADOES INTO THE
FOLLOWING CATEGORIES.
EF0…WEAK……65 TO 85 MPH
EF1…WEAK……86 TO 110 MPH
EF2…STRONG….111 TO 135 MPH
EF3…STRONG….136 TO 165 MPH
EF4…VIOLENT…166 TO 200 MPH
EF5…VIOLENT…>200 MPH
NOTE:
THE INFORMATION IN THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO
CHANGE PENDING FINAL REVIEW OF THE EVENT AND PUBLICATION IN
NWS STORM DATA.
Hazardous weather outlook, from the National Weather Service, Norman
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
THU JAN 31 2013
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
THU JAN 31 2013
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN…WESTERN…
CENTRAL…AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA…AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
.DAY ONE…TODAY AND TONIGHT…
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK…
NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION…
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE REGION TODAY BUT LIMITED MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
PROBABILITY TABLE…
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CST FRIDAY FEB 1.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA…ZERO PERCENT.
OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER…
NONE.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY…
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK…
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE OVER FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE
MONDAY.
OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER…
NONE.
Oklahoma City forecast, from the National Weather Service, Norman Forecast Office
Oklahoma City forecast, from the National Weather Service, Norman:
This Afternoon Mostly sunny, with a high near 42. West northwest wind 20 to 23 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph.
- Tonight Mostly clear, with a low around 29. West northwest wind 11 to 16 mph becoming south southwest 5 to 10 mph in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 23 mph.
- Thursday Sunny, with a high near 59. Southwest wind 8 to 10 mph becoming west northwest in the afternoon.
- Thursday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 25. North northwest wind 9 to 15 mph becoming northeast after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 21 mph.
- Friday Sunny, with a high near 49. East northeast wind 9 to 13 mph becoming south southeast in the afternoon.
- Friday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 33.
- Saturday Mostly sunny, with a high near 57.
- Saturday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 34.
- Sunday Mostly sunny, with a high near 62.
- Sunday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 44.
- Monday Sunny, with a high near 61.
- Monday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 40.
- Tuesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 63
Wind gust in the past hour at Oklahoma Mesonet weather stations
“Corps to release water from Canton Lake,” according to press release from the City of Oklahoma City
Press release from the City of Oklahoma City:
Corps to release water from Canton Lake
The Army Corps of Engineers will begin releasing 30,000 acre-feet of water from Canton Lake in northwest Oklahoma into the North Canadian River on January 30, 2013.
“We put off the release as long as possible,” said Marsha Slaughter, Utilities Department director for the City of Oklahoma City. “The recent rain will help prevent the released water from being absorbed into the dry river bed.”
The water released will take about two weeks to reach Oklahoma City where it will be captured in Lakes Hefner and replenish the drinking water supply that serves about 1.2 million people. The January release will have little improvement on recreation at the Oklahoma City lake levels.
“We don’t take water releases for recreational purposes,” Slaughter said. We take the water only to replenish water supply.”
For the past five decades, Oklahoma City has experienced above average rainfall, and water releases were few. The past two droughts have been hard on all Oklahoma Lakes and the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center expects the drought to continue in 2013. Most Oklahoma lakes are below normal pool elevation.
The City of Oklahoma City has implemented a mandatory odd/even water rotation program. This requires all water customers in Oklahoma City and in the communities that use its water are required to water yards according to the house numbers of their addresses. More stringent programs could be implemented as temperatures and water demand increase. The City’s Utilities Department has partnered with the OSU Extension Horticulture and Landscaping Department to promote water conservation and drought-tolerant landscaping to the metro-area residents and businesses.
“Typically, the fall and spring rains refill the lakes,” Slaughter said. “However, rainfall has been well below average. Oklahoma City received 29.5 inches of rain in 2012, 7 inches below average rainfall.”
The Oklahoma City Water Utilities Trust owns water rights in Canton Lake and has used it since the 1950s.
Hazardous weather outlook, from the National Weather Service, Norman
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
WED JAN 30 2013
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
440 AM CST WED JAN 30 2013
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN…WESTERN…
CENTRAL…AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA…AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
.DAY ONE…TODAY AND TONIGHT…
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK…
NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION…
THE MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR THAT HAS SPREAD OVER THE REGION WILL
AID IN PREVENTING THUNDERSTORMS.
PROBABILITY TABLE…
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CST THURSDAY JAN 31.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA…ZERO PERCENT.
OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER…
NONE.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY…
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK…
NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.
OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER…
NONE.
