Area forecast discussion from the National Weather Service
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 1105 AM CST SAT DEC 29 2012 .AVIATION... LIGHT W/SW SFC WINDS WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS AFTN AND EVENING. S/SW WINDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS ABOVE 20KTS ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL ALSO INCREASE LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. 30 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 943 AM CST SAT DEC 29 2012/ .UPDATE... MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WITH RESPECT TO MORNING OBSERVATIONS. && .DISCUSSION... MADE VERY LITTLE CHANGES TO TODAYS FORECAST...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WELL ROOTED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...AFTERNOON TEMPS ARE STILL ON TRACK TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 40S FROM OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. JTK && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 523 AM CST SAT DEC 29 2012/ DISCUSSION... AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW. AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT ALL SITES. LIGHT WINDS WILL GENERALLY SHIFT FROM THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTH 20-24Z. MBS PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CST SAT DEC 29 2012/ DISCUSSION... THE BIGGEST CONCERN IS DETERMINING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND TYPES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. TODAY WILL BE SUNNY AND WARMER. USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. COOLEST HIGHS WILL MOST LIKELY BE WHERE CURRENT SNOW COVER IS DEEPEST NEAR A CHEYENNE TO ANADARKO TO PAULS VALLEY LINE. TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR. WENT NEAR GUIDANCE LOWS TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE 15 TO 25 DEGREE RANGE AND SLIGHTLY BELOW THEM ON SUNDAY DUE TO INCREASING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...WET WEATHER WILL OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES SLIGHTLY. BASED ON LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS...APPEARS MOST PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. LATEST MODELS MAY BE UNDERESTIMATING THE AMOUNT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE MID/LOW LEVELS. WENT SLIGHTLY ABOVE 00Z MAV/METMOS LOWS. REGARDLESS... PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AS A LIGHT RAIN/SLEET MIXTURE NORTH OF THE RED RIVER BEFORE TURNING OVER TO RAIN...EXCEPT FOR FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WHERE A LIGHT WINTRY MIX MAY OCCUR. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY EXCEED ONE HALF INCH SOUTHEAST OF I-44. MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT...MOST PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND POINTS EAST WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL DRYSLOT MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. A COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTH. WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE MAY BE OVER THE AREA. AS TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING MAINLY AFTER 6 PM...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT ANY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE MAY BECOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE...THOUGH APPEARS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL BE WELL EAST OF OKLAHOMA BY THEN. WILL CLOSELY MONITOR. LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...MAINLY NORTH OF A CHEYENNE TO ENID TO PERRY LINE BETWEEN MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AND 6 AM TUESDAY HAVE THE BEST SHOT FOR LIGHT SNOW/ICE ACCUMULATIONS WHICH MAY REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. AT THIS TIME...APPEARS ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE UNDER ONE INCH AND ANY ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN INCH. FORECAST CONFIDENCE OF PRECIPITATION TYPES AND AMOUNTS REMAIN LOW IN THESE AREAS. NEW YEARS DAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DRY WEATHER AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER LOW AS A MID/UPPER TROUGH MAY BE LINGERING NEAR THE AREA. MBS && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... OKLAHOMA CITY OK 40 20 43 34 / 0 0 10 70 HOBART OK 39 17 42 34 / 0 0 0 70 WICHITA FALLS TX 43 23 44 36 / 0 0 10 80 GAGE OK 43 20 40 31 / 0 0 0 40 PONCA CITY OK 43 19 45 33 / 0 0 0 40 DURANT OK 42 21 45 35 / 0 0 10 70 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...NONE. TX...NONE.
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