New area forecast from National Weather Service
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1119 PM CST MON DEC 24 2012
.DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GO TO IFR AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY. LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SLEET IS POSSIBLE BEFORE SUNRISE, THEN SNOW
IS EXPECTED. STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS FROM THE NORTH WILL OCCUR FROM
LATE MORNING TUESDAY THROUGH THE DAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 949 PM CST MON DEC 24 2012/
UPDATE...
CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE
TO THE WINTER STORM WARNING AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
AT THIS TIME.
LOWERED TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO TONIGHT AS WELL AS
INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON CHRISTMAS DAY.
DISCUSSION...
WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
CHRISTMAS DAY.
THE WINTER STORM WARNING AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ARE
IN GOOD SHAPE. THE HEAVIEST/MOST SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL
NOT ARRIVE UNTIL 6 AM CST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE WORST
CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 10 AM AND 6 PM CHRISTMAS
DAY.
LATEST RADARS INDICATED LIGHT RETURNS OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...WHICH MOST IF NOT ALL...WERE NOT REACHING
THE GROUND AS OF 930 PM CST DUE TO DRY LOW/MID LEVELS. AS THE
NIGHT CONTINUES...SOME OF THESE LIGHT RETURNS WILL REACH THE
GROUND AS THE AIR SATURATES.
LATEST NAM12/RAP13 HINTED THAT THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL AXIS MAY BE
SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. WAS NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO EXPAND THE WINTER STORM WARNING SOUTHWARD...THOUGH
INCREASED SNOWFALL TOTALS SLIGHTLY ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS A LIGHT SLEET...LIGHT RAIN...LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN MIX NEAR THE OKLAHOMA CITY...LAWTON...STILLWATER...
PONCA CITY CORRIDOR SOMETIME BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6 AM. DO NOT
THINK FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE SIGNIFICANT IN THESE
AREAS...THOUGH SOME SLEET ACCUMULATIONS MAY OCCUR BEFORE
PRECIPITATION TURNS OVER TO SNOW BETWEEN 9 AM AND 1 PM.
NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY 9 AM TO MIDNIGHT ON
TUESDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DUE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS CAUSING
NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS...LOW VISIBILITIES...AND CONSIDERABLE
BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW. TRAVEL IS NOT RECOMMENDED.
MBS
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 710 PM CST MON DEC 24 2012/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GO TO IFR IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
AFTER 251000. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LAST AT LEAST UNTIL 252100.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 PM CST MON DEC 24 2012/
DISCUSSION...
A WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF OK BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT
AND ENDING LATE TOMORROW NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. FOR
TONIGHT...CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE WITHIN WSW FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE
DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW NEARING THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. WAA
TONIGHT COMBINED WITH A WEAK INITIAL MID TO UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING OVERHEAD WILL RESULT IN SOME PRECIP/CONVECTION DEVELOPING
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL/SW OK. PROFILES SUGGEST SLEET/SNOW ALONG AND
NORTH OF I44 WITH RAIN ELSEWHERE.
AS THE MID TO UPPER LOW MOVES OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING...POPS SHOULD RAPIDLY BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL/NW OK. MOST SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS THE
SURFACE LOW REMAINING A BIT FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...AND THUS
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WITHIN A ZONE FROM WEST CENTRAL OK ESE
TOWARDS SE/E CENTRAL OK. ALTHOUGH WARM NOSE TEMPS WILL INITIALLY
SUPPORT SOME BRIEF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN ALONG I44...RAPID
DIABATIC COOLING WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY SNOW AFTER LUNCHTIME. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE MIDDLE OF CHRISTMAS DAY ACROSS
CENTRAL OK WHEN/WHERE SNOW GROWTH EFFICIENCY AND LIFT WILL BE
MAXIMIZED. ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW BLIZZARD
THRESHOLDS...WHITEOUT CONDITIONS REMAIN VERY POSSIBLE. THIS WILL
BE WATCHED CLOSELY. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 4-6 INCHES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OK...WITH LOCATIONS UNDER THE HEAVIEST BANDS
LIKELY EXCEEDING 6 INCHES. AT THE CURRENT MOMENT...THE MOST LIKELY
AREAS FOR THIS TO OCCUR APPEARS TO BE VERY CLOSE OR JUST SOUTH OF
THE OKC METRO. WE HAVE UPGRADED ALL ZONES TO EITHER A WINTER STORM
WARNING OR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TO MIDNIGHT.
AFTER THE SNOW QUICKLY ENDS TOMORROW NIGHT...WIND CHILLS LESS THAN
ZERO ON WED MORNING WILL ALSO PRESENT A PROBLEM. A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF OK WED MORNING. ONLY A
VERY SLOW WARMUP IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH
PERHAPS ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION FRIDAY FROM
I35 EASTWARD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 24 26 12 25 / 60 100 20 0
HOBART OK 22 25 9 26 / 40 90 10 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 31 34 16 31 / 50 80 20 0
GAGE OK 17 20 6 27 / 30 90 10 0
PONCA CITY OK 21 24 9 27 / 20 80 20 0
DURANT OK 38 41 18 32 / 50 100 30 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
OKZ011>013-015>020-022>032-035-038-040>043-048.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
OKZ004>010-014-021-033-034-036-037-039-044>047-050>052.
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
TXZ083>090.
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