Dangerous winter storm will likely affect much of Oklahoma Christmas Day, according to the National Weather Service, Norman Forecast Office

Source: National Weather Service, Norman

DANGEROUS WINTER STORM WILL LIKELY AFFECT MUCH OF OKLAHOMA
CHRISTMAS DAY…

.DISCUSSION…
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS DETERMINING THE LOCATION…
TIMING…AND AMOUNT OF SNOWFALL LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT.

THROUGH MONDAY…DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR. WENT NEAR THE COLDER 12Z
MET/MAVMOS LOWS TONIGHT DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
WENT COOLER THAN 12Z MET/MOS HIGHS ON MONDAY DUE TO INCREASING
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER.

ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR ALL OF OKLAHOMA COUNTIES WHERE
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE THAT LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE 4 INCHES OR
MORE OF SNOWFALL AND CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW FOR A WINTER STORM WATCH ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AS THE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL LIKELY STAY
NORTH OF THESE AREAS.

THE TRACK OF THE MID/UPPER LOW WILL MAKE A HUGE DIFFERENCE WITH
THIS SYSTEM NOW JUST BEING SAMPLED OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MUCH
MODEL DISAGREEMENT CONTINUED AS OF 12Z TODAY. USED A BLEND OF
MODEL DATA. SLIGHTLY PREFER A MID/UPPER LOW TRACK NORTH OF 12Z
MODEL CONSENSUS…SOMEWHERE NEAR I-40.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE…SNOW WILL BE THE MAIN TYPE NORTHWEST
OF I-44…THOUGH SLEET MAY OCCUR BRIEFLY WITH PRECIPITATION ONSET
TUESDAY MORNING. SOUTHEAST OF I-44…GENERALLY EXPECT A RATHER
ABRUPT CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW…THOUGH THERE COULD BE AN
HOUR OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. CONFIDENCE OF FREEZING RAIN AND
SIGNIFICANT ICING POTENTIAL REMAINS VERY LOW. THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR DURING CHRISTMAS DAY BETWEEN 6 AM AND 6
PM.

AS FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS…GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF MODEL DATA IN
THE 2 TO 6 INCHES IN THE WATCH AREA AND GENERALLY ONE INCH OR LESS
SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER.

THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVIER…PERHAPS MUCH HEAVIER
AMOUNTS…IN EXCESS OF 6 INCHES SOMEWHERE IN THE WATCH AREA
DEPENDING ON THE ACTUAL MID/UPPER LOW TRACK…ESPECIALLY SINCE
LATEST MODELS HINTED AT SOME WEAK INSTABILITY TO ENHANCE
PRECIPITATION RATES. IF THESE HEAVIER AMOUNTS OCCUR…STRONG
NORTH WINDS WILL CAUSE NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.

CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW WILL OCCUR CHRISTMAS DAY
AND EVENING DUE TO NORTH WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 45
MPH. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE DANGEROUSLY LOW AS WELL. TRAVEL
WILL BE TREACHEROUS IN MANY AREAS. WINDS AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD
SLOWLY TAPER OFF DURING TUESDAY EVENING.

BEYOND TUESDAY NIGHT…DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM MAY BRING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION
TO LOCATIONS EAST OF I-35 ON FRIDAY.

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