Area forecast discussion from the National Weather Service
.AVIATION... 23/12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND EXPECTED. AREAS OF LIFR/IFR CIGS ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS MAY MAKE A RUN AT KPNC BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD TO FORECAST AND HANDLE WITH AMENDMENTS AS THEY SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED. && .DISCUSSION... MAIN ADJUSTMENTS TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE POPS MOST AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY FROM NORTHWEST AND WEST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TOWARD SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. MOST MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON GEOGRAPHY WHERE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL IMPACT REGION...BUT VARY GREATLY WITH RESPECT TO SNOW AMOUNTS. THE LATEST AND GREATEST FROM GFS AND WRF /06Z RUNS/ WENT VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WRF AN EXTREME OUTLIER AT THIS POINT. THE HIGHER TOTALS FROM THE MODELS APPEAR TO BE PRIMARILY DUE TO FASTER INTENSIFICATION OF MID-LEVEL CYCLONE. ALL MODELS INTENSIFY UPPER LOW AND HOW FAST THIS OCCURS WILL BE A POINT OF CONTENTION WHEN TALKING ABOUT WINTER STORM WATCH ISSUANCE. WE CONSIDERED ISSUING A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR ALL BUT FAR NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS BUT WITH SUCH VARIATIONS IN LATEST MODEL DATA AND COORD WITH SURROUNDING WFOS...WE WILL PASS ON TO DAY SHIFT AND LET 12Z MODEL SUITE TRY TO SHOW SOME CONSISTENCY. DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU LIKE...WE COULD BE LOOKING AT EITHER A MINIMAL ADVISORY EVENT OR SIGNIFICANT SNOW AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 10 INCHES. WE FEEL IT WILL BE CLOSER TO THE ADVISORY LEVEL OR LOW-END WINTER STORM BUT 06Z RUN OF TWO MODELS CREATES DOUBT. ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES ON FRIDAY BUT IS PROGD TO BE WEAKER AND WILL HAVE LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. AGAIN...MODEL CONSISTENCY/TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... OKLAHOMA CITY OK 52 23 40 22 / 0 0 0 30 HOBART OK 51 23 44 22 / 0 0 0 40 WICHITA FALLS TX 57 26 44 29 / 0 0 10 30 GAGE OK 47 19 41 15 / 0 0 0 40 PONCA CITY OK 46 20 37 23 / 0 0 10 10 DURANT OK 65 32 50 35 / 10 0 0 40 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...NONE. TX...NONE.
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