Area forecast discussion from the National Weather Service, Tulsa Forecast Office

WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
419 PM CST TUE DEC 18 2012

.DISCUSSION…
HIGH CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO ENTER INTO THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
POSITIONED ITSELF ACROSS THE REGION. THIS BOUNDARY WILL PUSH BACK
NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING…WITH A WIDE
TEMP RANGE FOR LOWS /MID 30S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES…NORTH TO SOUTH/.

GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH DEVELOP TOMORROW AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE PLAINS. THESE WINDS ALONG WITH WARM
TEMPS WILL HELP TO CREATE AT LEAST LIMITED FIRE WEATHER DANGERS
ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASING DEWPOINTS DURING THE DAY COULD HELP
TO KEEP ELEVATED FIRE DANGERS LOCALIZED.

AS THE WAVE ENTERS THE PLAINS AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AND DRYLINE
WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND INTO
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WEDNESDAY EVENING AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT
PUSHES EASTWARD. THE GREATER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE
ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND FURTHER EAST OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY
EVENING. BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE…GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS SHIFT
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND BECOME STRONGER WITH GUSTS AROUND AND
OVER 35 MPH. THESE WINDS COULD APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

SOME LIGHT SNOW AND SNOW FLURRIES COULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS/NEAR THE
KANSAS BORDER IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND THE MISSOURI BORDER IN FAR
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT ANY ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD BE MINOR NEAR THE KANSAS MISSOURI BORDERS…WITH MOSTLY
FLURRIES SOUTHWARD TO A LINE FROM PAWNEE TO MADISON COUNTIES.
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMAL AND DRIER AIR BEHIND THE
EXITING WAVE WILL ALLOW FOR LIMITED TO ELEVATED FIRE DANGERS AGAIN
OVER THE REGION THURSDAY. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE
PLAINS FOR THE WEEKEND WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND TEMPS IN THE 50S
RETURNING.

IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST…MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
DIFFERING SOLUTIONS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO PUSH A STRONG LONGWAVE THROUGH THE PLAINS WHICH COULD
BRING WINTRY WEATHER TO THE REGION DURING THE CHRISTMAS TIME
PERIOD. LATEST ECMWF RUN HAS PUSHED THE LONGWAVE NORTHWARD…WHICH
WOULD HAVE WARMER TEMPS AND COULD KEEP MOST OF THE RAIN NORTH OF
THE REGION. WITH ALL OF THE UNCERTAINTIES DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD…WILL CONTINUE PERSISTENCE OF PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE IN
HAVING CHANCES OF PRECIP. HOWEVER…PRECIP TIMING/TYPE COULD
PROBABLY CHANGE AS MODEL RUNS/FORECASTER CONFIDENCE BECOMES MORE
IN-LINE WITH EACH OTHER.

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