Hazardous weather outlook, from the National Weather Service, Norman

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THU OCT 11 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN…WESTERN…
CENTRAL…AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA…AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE…TODAY AND TONIGHT…

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK…
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.

LOCATION…
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM STROUD TO
GUTHRIE…TO WATONGA AND ARNETT.

TIMING…
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM 7 PM THIS
EVENING THROUGH 1 AM FRIDAY.

IMPACTS…
HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH WILL BE
THE MAIN HAZARDS. LIGHT DAMAGE TO HOMES AND AUTOMOBILES MAY OCCUR
WITH LARGE HAIL…ALONG WITH DAMAGE TO TENDER VEGETATION. TREES AND
POWER LINES WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO DAMAGE FROM WIND GUSTS.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS…
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS FROM THIS
EVENING UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

DISCUSSION…
A WARM FRONT WILL SURGE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY TODAY…BRINGING
RICH MOISTURE AND UNUSUALLY WARM TEMPERATURES TO MUCH OF THE REGION.
THIS FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE KANSAS OKLAHOMA BORDER LATE TODAY. AS
WARM MOIST AIR RIDES UP AND OVER THE STALLED FRONT…WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE TODAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG WINDS
ALOFT WILL FAVOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS…PARTICULARLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
GOLFBALLS AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS…THOUGH
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BECOME A CONCERN OVERNIGHT AS SLOW MOVING STORMS
IMPACT THE SAME AREAS. STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE PAST MIDNIGHT AND
INTO EARLY FRIDAY…THOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

PROBABILITY TABLE…
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT FRIDAY OCT 12.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA…100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR…60 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER…
HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN SOME AREAS. RAINFALL TOTALS OF ONE TO
THREE INCHES IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED
FLOODING…ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AREAS AND AREAS THAT TEND TO
DRAIN SLOWLY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY…

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK…
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT…MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA…AND ON SATURDAY ACROSS
MUCH OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS AS A DRYLINE PUSHES INTO CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA. LARGE DAMAGING HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS…ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING…BRINGING MILD AND DRY WEATHER
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER…
PERSISTENT HEAVY RAINFALL FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED
FLOODING…PARTICULARLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.

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