Archive for

Short-term forecast from the National Weather Service, Norman

NOBLE-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-
BECKHAM-WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-
CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-
TILLMAN-COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-
JEFFERSON-CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-
FOARD-WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
 FRI AUG 31 2012

.NOW…
SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA…MAINLY FROM NEAR STILLWATER TO CUSHING AND
STROUD. THE SHOWERS WERE MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTH AT ABOUT 20 MPH.
THE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON…BUT WILL REMAIN SCATTERED. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE
EAST OF I-35…AND NORTH OF PAULS VALLEY AND ADA.

EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH THE SHOWERS.
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO POSSIBLE. GUSTY WINDS MAY
ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER SHOWERS AND STORMS.


Tulsa forecast map for this afternoon/evening, from the National Weather Service, Tulsa


Information on Isaac, from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ISAAC ADVISORY NUMBER 42
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 1000 AM CDT…1500 UTC…THE CENTER OF ISAAC WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 35.6 NORTH…AND LONGITUDE 94.1 WEST. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY TODAY BEFORE TURNING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 25 MPH…40 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB…29.62 INCHES.

HAZARDS
——-
RAINFALL…AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN…WITH LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 8 INCHES…WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THROUGH LATE SATURDAY. THESE HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL SPREAD INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY.
BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY…HEAVY RAINS WILL REACH
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. WHILE THE ONGOING DROUGHT WILL TEND TO
KEEP THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING DOWN INITIALLY…VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER THE SAME AREAS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING FLASH
FLOOD THREAT OVER TIME.

RAINFALL TOTALS
—————
SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL IN INCHES THROUGH 7 AM CDT

…ALABAMA…
WILMER 7.9 SE                       11.96                    
GRAND BAY 0.6 NW                    11.07                    
MOBILE/BATES FIELD                   9.67                    
FAIRHOPE 2.3 N                       6.42                    
DAPHNE 1.8 ESE                       5.87                    
THEODORE 8.0 SSE                     5.12                    
POINT CLEAR 1.6 SSW                  5.04                    
SILVERHILL 0.9 SSE                   4.34                    
FOLEY 2.0 SSW                        3.71                    

…ARKANSAS…
MONTICELLO 1.6 WNW                   5.09                    
WHITE HALL 4.1 NNW                   5.08                    
HAMPTON 6.8 SE                       4.12                    
BRYANT 1.3 NW                        4.03                    
LITTLE ROCK 2.2 N                    3.13                    
PINE BLUFF/GRIDER FIELD              2.63                    
EL DORADO/GOODWIN FIELD              1.71                    

…FLORIDA…
VERO BEACH 5.2 S                    16.60                    
ROYAL PALM BEACH 5.0 W              16.29                    
BOYNTON BEACH 1.9 NNW               14.41                    
PORT ST LUCIE 1.5 NE                13.04                    
ABERDEEN 4.2 NNW                    12.41                    
PALM CITY 4.0 SW                    11.69                    
HOMESTEAD AFB                        9.37                    
FORT PIERCE/ST LUCIE                 9.18                    
WEST PALM BEACH INTL ARPT            8.64                    
VERO BEACH MUNI ARPT                 7.66                    
FORT LAUDERDALE EXECUTIVE APT        7.02                    
MIAMI/OPA LOCKA                      6.64                    
POMPANO BEACH AIRPARK                5.33                    
WINTER HAVEN GILBERT ARPT            5.19                    
HOLLYWOOD/NORTH PERRY ARPT           5.12                    

…GEORGIA…
GUYTON 1.9 S                         5.60                    
BROOKLET 13.1 SE                     4.60                    
RINCON 1.2 NNW                       4.03                    
MONROE 5.6 NNE                       3.11                    
JESUP 7.1 N                          3.04                    
AUGUSTA/BUSH FIELD                   2.53                    
ALMA/BACON CO. ARPT                  2.49                    
SAVANNAH MUNI ARPT                   2.47                    
FORT STEWART/WRIGHT AAF              2.06                    
AUGUSTA/DANIEL FIELD                 1.95                    
MOODY AFB/VALDOSTA                   1.50                    

…LOUISIANA…
NEW ORLEANS                         20.08                    
RESERVE 0.5 SSE                     13.46                    
LIVINGSTON                          13.16                    
ABITA SPRINGS 1.9 NE                12.36                    
HAMMOND 2.3 WSW                     11.93                    
TERRYTOWN 3.3 S                     10.56                    
SLIDELL                             10.40                    
BATON ROUGE/RYAN MUNI ARPT           4.57                    
BOOTHVILLE                           4.20                    
MONROE RGNL ARPT                     2.37                    
PATTERSON MEMORIAL ARPT              2.00                    
LAFAYETTE RGNL ARPT                  1.55                    
ALEXANDRIA/ESLER                     1.50                    

…MISSOURI…
WEST PLAINS 1 W                      2.08                    

…MISSISSIPPI…
KILN 3.3 N                          17.04                    
MARION RAWS/COLUMBIA                15.02                    
SAUCIER 1.7 NNE                     12.78                    
PICAYUNE 5.6 ENE                    12.17                    
DIAMONDHEAD 1.5 NE                  12.04                    
LONG BEACH 0.7 S                    11.95                    
MCCOMB/LEWIS FIELD                  10.93                    
GULFPORT-BILOXI                     10.85                    
PASCAGOULA                          10.67                    
KEESLER AFB/BILOXI                  10.17                    
HATTIESBURG/CHAIN MUNI ARPT          9.44                    
HATTIESBURG/LAUREL                   7.93                    
JACKSON/HAWKINS FIELD                4.03                    
MERIDIAN/KEY FIELD                   4.00                    
JACKSON WFO                          3.93                    
MERIDIAN NAS/MCCAIN                  1.72                    

…NORTH CAROLINA…
WILMINGTON/NEW HANOVER CO. ARPT      4.07                    
JACKSONVILLE/ELLIS AIRPORT           1.50                    

…SOUTH CAROLINA…
MOUNT PLEASANT 5.5 NNE               9.08                    
PAWLEYS ISLAND 5.6 NNE               8.36                    
CHARLESTON 2.8 NE                    7.36                    
JOHNS ISLAND 9.0 SE                  6.44                    
MEGGETT 1.8 W                        4.85                    
BEAUFORT MCAS                        3.59                    
ROCK HILL-YORK CO. ARPT              2.89                    
DARLINGTON                           1.75


Rainfall statistics for regions of Oklahoma, going into last day of the climatological summer; from the Oklahoma Mesonet

Summer 2012: Jun 1, 2012 through Aug 30, 2012

Climate Division Total Rainfall Departure from Normal Pct of Normal Rank since 1921 (89 periods) Driest on Record Wettest on Record
Panhandle 4.39″ -3.49″ 56% 6th driest 2.67″ (1936) 15.86″ (1950)
N. Central 4.31″ -5.57″ 44% 5th driest 3.55″ (2001) 17.35″ (2007)
Northeast 6.21″ -4.64″ 57% 8th driest 3.02″ (1936) 22.25″ (1948)
W. Central 3.91″ -4.72″ 45% 9th driest 2.58″ (1980) 16.07″ (2007)
Central 6.08″ -3.61″ 63% 14th driest 2.15″ (1936) 25.05″ (2007)
E. Central 6.87″ -3.75″ 65% 12th driest 1.83″ (1936) 20.40″ (1958)
Southwest 5.57″ -3.37″ 62% 20th driest 2.19″ (1954) 18.12″ (2007)
S. Central 6.34″ -3.30″ 66% 20th driest 2.72″ (1980) 19.26″ (2007)
Southeast 9.61″ -1.29″ 88% 32nd driest 3.31″ (1930) 22.21″ (1945)
Statewide 5.89″ -3.79″ 61% 10th driest 2.92″ (1936) 18.07″ (2007)

Forecast for Oklahoma City, from the National Weather Service, Norman

Oklahoma City Forecast:

Today A 20 percent chance of rain and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 93. Heat index values as high as 97. North northwest wind 7 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph.

Tonight Partly cloudy, with a low around 71. North wind 5 to 9 mph becoming east in the evening.

Saturday Sunny and hot, with a high near 97. Light and variable wind becoming west northwest 5 to 7 mph in the afternoon.

Saturday Night Clear, with a low around 71. South wind 6 to 10 mph.

Sunday Sunny and hot, with a high near 98. South wind around 10 mph.

Sunday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 76.

Labor Day Sunny, with a high near 95.

Monday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 75.

Tuesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 96.

Tuesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 73.

Wednesday A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 95.

Wednesday Night A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 71.

Thursday A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 85.


Forecast map regarding potential rain, from the National Weather Service, Tulsa


Information about Isaac for Eastern Oklahoma, from the National Weather Service, Tulsa

BENTON-CARROLL-WASHINGTON AR-MADISON-CRAWFORD-FRANKLIN-SEBASTIAN-
PUSHMATAHA-CHOCTAW-OSAGE-WASHINGTON OK-NOWATA-CRAIG-OTTAWA-PAWNEE-
TULSA-ROGERS-MAYES-DELAWARE-CREEK-OKFUSKEE-OKMULGEE-WAGONER-
CHEROKEE-ADAIR-MUSKOGEE-MCINTOSH-SEQUOYAH-PITTSBURG-HASKELL-
LATIMER-LE FLORE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…ROGERS…BENTONVILLE…BERRYVILLE…
EUREKA SPRINGS…FAYETTEVILLE…SPRINGDALE…HUNTSVILLE…
VAN BUREN…OZARK…CHARLESTON…FORT SMITH…ANTLERS…CLAYTON…
HUGO…PAWHUSKA…BARTLESVILLE…NOWATA…VINITA…MIAMI…
PAWNEE…TULSA…CLAREMORE…PRYOR…JAY…BRISTOW…OKEMAH…
OKMULGEE…WAGONER…TAHLEQUAH…STILWELL…MUSKOGEE…EUFAULA…
SALLISAW…MCALESTER…STIGLER…WILBURTON…POTEAU
FRI AUG 31 2012

…ISAAC TO IMPACT EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TODAY…

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ISAAC WAS APPROXIMATELY 35 MILES
EAST OF FORT SMITH EARLY THIS MORNING…AND WAS MOVING NORTH AROUND
10 TO 15 MPH. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THIS
PATH…EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. BANDS OF SHOWERS…SOME WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL…CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS AND FAR
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING.

BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK…THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO BE CONCENTRATED ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS…WHERE
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE COMMON WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS NEAR 4
INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED
FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS AND QUICK RISES IN SMALL CREEKS AND
STREAMS. RAINFALL TOTALS WILL DECREASE TO THE WEST WITH MOST AREAS
IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA RECEIVING LESS THAN AN
INCH.

GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED AS ISAAC LIFTS NORTH…WITH A FEW GUSTS
AROUND 30 TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE.

WHILE THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS RATHER LIMITED TODAY…AREAS THAT
REMAIN EAST OF THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL BE IN A FAVORABLE AREA FOR
ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADOES THIS MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
SHOULD THE TRACK BE FARTHER EAST THAN EXPECTED…THE THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE LESS AND FARTHER REMOVED
FROM WESTERN ARKANSAS.

ALL THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR
THE LATEST FORECASTS…STATEMENTS AND OUTLOOKS FROM THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FOR UPDATED INFORMATION.


Hazardous weather outlook, from the National Weather Service, Norman

WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
FRI AUG 31 2012

HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
FRI AUG 31 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN…WESTERN…
CENTRAL…AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA…AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE…TONIGHT…

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK…
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION…
THE REMNANTS OF ISAAC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH NORTHWESTWARD
TODAY INTO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA. MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY REMAIN
OUTSIDE OF OUR FORECAST AREA EAST OF I35. HOWEVER…A FEW SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL MAKE IT INTO THE I35 CORRIDOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED…ALTHOUGH
SOME STRONGER WIND GUSTS COULD ACCOMPANY ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS.

PROBABILITY TABLE…
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT FRIDAY AUG 31.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA…90 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR…10 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER…
NONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY…

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK…
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
STRONGER SHOWERS AND STORMS…BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY. A
PERIOD OF HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL FOLLOW…WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER…
NONE.


Warmest Maximum Temperatures in Oklahoma today according to the Oklahoma Mesonet weather network

1 – Breckinridge 99.7F 3:55 pm
2 – Grandfield 98.8F 3:50 pm
3 – Blackwell 98.8F 3:30 pm
4 – Pawnee 98.7F 4:10 pm
5 – Red Rock 98.7F 4:55 pm
6 – Freedom 98.6F 3:00 pm
7 – Altus 98.5F 4:05 pm
8 – Fairview 98.3F 4:50 pm
9 – Waurika 98.3F 3:45 pm
10 – Nowata 98.3F 4:45 pm
11 – Lahoma 98.2F 3:55 pm
12 – Butler 98.2F 3:50 pm
13 – Burbank 98.1F 2:55 pm
14 – Mangum 98.0F 4:15 pm
15 – Hooker 98.0F 4:40 pm

Forecast for the National Weather Service, Norman Forecast Office coverage area