Area forecast discussion from National Weather Service

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 1212 PM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012 .

AVIATION… VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. THAT BEING SAID… THERE ARE HIGH BASED SHOWERS/STORMS THAT MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT SOME AIRPORTS /ALTHOUGH PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW AT TAF SITES TO MENTION/ WHICH MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND/OR WIND SHEAR IF ONE MOVES TOO CLOSE.

AND WINDS.. ALTHOUGH GENERALLY LIGHT.. WILL BE QUITE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION DUE TO WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT…AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING WEST FROM THE MORNING STORMS IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO OKLAHOMA LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .

PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1034 AM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012/ DISCUSSION… AXIS OF HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER…EXTENDS FROM GULF COAST STATES INTO EASTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA. EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS…COVER ROUGHLY THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF OKLAHOMA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE STATE.

SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST PRECIP AND CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON…BUT TRENDS WOULD INDICATE CLOUDS MAY REMAIN INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS AT LEAST THE EASTERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA.

PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 633 AM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012/ DISCUSSION… AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW. AVIATION… VFR CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED. A FEW TSRA/SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO STAY MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF A KOKC TO KSPS LINE AND NORTH OF THE OKLAHOMA KANSAS STATE LINE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACT FROM TSRA/SHRA APPEAR TO BE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. MBS PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 417 AM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012/ DISCUSSION…

THE PRIMARY CONCERN IS DETERMINING RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TODAY…KEPT ISOLATED/20 PERCENT MENTION EAST OF A STILLWATER TO NORMAN TO WAURIKA LINE. LATEST RADAR INDICATED A FEW SHOWERS BETWEEN MCALESTER AND ATOKA WHICH MAY HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY SLOWLY MOVE WEST THIS MORNING.

LATEST HRRR INDICATED ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR IN THIS AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. REDEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IN THESE LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON WHERE CAPPING IS WEAKEST. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE ONE OR TWO STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON.

AS FOR HIGHS TODAY…THINK THEY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER…ESPECIALLY NEAR AND EAST OF I-35. MOST PLACES IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS SHOULD REACH THE CENTURY MARK ONCE AGAIN.

TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY…KEPT LOW STORM CHANCES AROUND 20 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA…THOUGH FAIRLY STRONG CAPPING SHOULD KEEP MOST PLACES DRY. HOWEVER…A FEW LOCATIONS MAY GET LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS ANY STORM WOULD BE MOVING SLOWLY. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY STRONG OR SEVERE STORM MAINLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON… BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE SEEMS UNLIKELY DUE TO WEAK SHEAR.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY…BELIEVE BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL OCCUR AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE BEST MID LEVEL COOLING AND HEIGHT FALLS ARE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME. KEPT 30/40 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES OVER THE AREA…SLOWLY SHIFTING NORTH TO SOUTH. NOT CONFIDENT ALL LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE RAIN AS WEAK SHEAR WILL KEEP CONVECTION UNORGANIZED. SEVERE STORMS SEEM UNLIKELY…BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOULD KEEP HIGHS DOWN CONSIDERABLY ON MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY…COOLER CONDITIONS WILL BE THE MAIN STORY. RAIN CHANCES MAY LINGER NEAR THE RED RIVER THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INCREASE BY THE END OF THE WEEK. MBS && .

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS… OKLAHOMA CITY OK 99 73 96 71 / 20 20 20 40 HOBART OK 104 73 101 70 / 10 10 20 40 WICHITA FALLS TX 101 75 101 73 / 10 10 20 30 GAGE OK 100 69 94 67 / 20 20 20 40 PONCA CITY OK 102 73 95 70 / 20 20 20 40 DURANT OK 97 74 95 73 / 40 30 30 40

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