Area forecast discussion from National Weather Service

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 632 AM CDT FRI JUL 6 2012 .

DISCUSSION… AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW. && .AVIATION… VFR CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED. MBS && .PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 446 AM CDT FRI JUL 6 2012/ DISCUSSION… VERY HOT CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY AND RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ARE THE FORECAST CHALLENGES OF THE DAY.

ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY AND VERY HOT DAY WILL OCCUR TODAY. BELIEVE MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. DID NOT ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY AS DRY AIR IN PLACE OVER THE AREA WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS MIXING MAINLY INTO THE 50S THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDICES GENERALLY BELOW 105 DEGREES. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE RED RIVER OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA…BUT DID NOT MENTION WITH COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 10 PERCENT.

SATURDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH A BIT MORE CLOUDS AND LIGHTER WINDS. KEPT 20 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES EAST OF A SEMINOLE TO ARDMORE LINE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHERE LATEST MODELS HINTED AT WEAKER CAPPING AND DEEPER MOISTURE. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY…BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT. DID NOT CHANGE MUCH DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

SUNDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY AND HOT WITH BEST STORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE FRONT SOMEWHERE OVER THE NORTH HALF OF OKLAHOMA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ON MONDAY…THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY SHIFT SOUTH NEAR THE RED RIVER.

DUE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY…A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE…THOUGH WEAK SHEAR SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD SEVERE FROM OCCURRING. CLOUD COVER AND NEARBY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER CONDITIONS ON MONDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY…KEPT LOW RAIN CHANCES OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS NEAR THE FRONT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LOWERED/REMOVED RAIN CHANCES OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WHERE MODELS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT BRINGING DRIER AIR TO THESE AREAS.

COOLER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE. MBS && .

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS… OKLAHOMA CITY OK 100 73 100 74 / 0 0 10 10 HOBART OK 105 73 104 74 / 0 0 10 10 WICHITA FALLS TX 103 74 101 75 / 0 0 10 10 GAGE OK 100 71 100 68 / 0 0 10 20 PONCA CITY OK 105 74 103 72 / 0 0 10 20 DURANT OK 99 75 97 75 / 10 10 20 20

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