Fourth of July area forecast discussion from National Weather Service

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION…

UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 1020 AM CDT WED JUL 4 2012 .UPDATE… HOT AGAIN TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S TO AROUND 100. OVERALL FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES. MAXWELL && .PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 626 AM CDT WED JUL 4 2012/

AVIATION… VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL SUBSIDE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 345 AM CDT WED JUL 4 2012/

DISCUSSION… UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CENTRAL US…ROUGHLY CENTERED ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP US RATHER HOT AND DRY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HIGHS WILL SLOWLY CREEP UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA…EXCEPTION WILL BE CENTRAL/SRN OK WHERE SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE MAY LIMIT MAX TEMPS.

STILL…EXPECTING UPPER 90S AND LOW 100S OVER A LARGE AREA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH HEAT INDICES NEARING 105 DEGREES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HEAT ADVISORIES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED…BUT HEAT SAFETY MEASURES SHOULD STILL BE TAKEN DURING THIS PERIOD OF VERY HOT WEATHER. UPPER AIR PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS/ECMWF BOTH INDICATE THE DOMINANT RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS REGION AND RETROGRADE INTO THE CNTRL ROCKIES.

AS THIS OCCURS…LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ERN US…PLACING US BENEATH WEAK NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. BOTH MODELS ALSO BRING A FRONT NEAR OR INTO OKLAHOMA BY MONDAY. SHOULD THIS OCCUR…EXPECT TO RETURN TO NORMAL OR PERHAPS EVEN BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPS. INCREASING LOW LVL MOISTURE AND THE PRESENCE OF THE FRONT WOULD ALSO DRAMATICALLY INCREASE RAIN CHANCES.

WHILE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT…SOME DISAGREEMENT REMAINS IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF SFC FEATURES. THUS…WILL KEEP TEMPS NEAR AVERAGE AND POPS AOB 30 PERCENT. && .

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS… OKLAHOMA CITY OK 98 72 98 72 / 0 0 0 0 HOBART OK 101 72 100 71 / 0 10 10 0 WICHITA FALLS TX 101 74 101 73 / 0 10 10 0 GAGE OK 99 70 98 69 / 10 0 0 0 PONCA CITY OK 100 72 98 72 / 0 0 0 0 DURANT OK 97 73 98 73 / 0 10 10 0

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