Hazardous weather outlook, from the National Weather Service, Tulsa
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
MON MAR 26 2012
THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
.DAY ONE…TODAY AND TONIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
RISK…LIMITED.
AREA…WESTERN OSAGE AND WESTERN PAWNEE COUNTIES.
ONSET…THIS AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION…
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 80S AND SOUTH WINDS GUSTING AS
HIGH AS 25 MILES AN HOUR WILL RESULT IN A LIMITED FIRE DANGER THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN OSAGE AND WESTERN PAWNEE COUNTIES.
SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT…
SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT EXPECTED.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
TUESDAY…THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL…HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY…THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY…NO HAZARDS.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY…THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY…NO HAZARDS.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION…
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST NORTH OF THE
OKLAHOMA/KANSAS BORDER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WHILE THE BEST
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH ALONG THE
FRONT…THERE WILL BE A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE
KANSAS BORDER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BRINGING
LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO ALL OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS AT THAT TIME.
Hazardous weather outlook, from the National Weather Service, Norman
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
MON MAR 26 2012
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN…WESTERN…
CENTRAL…AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA…AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
.DAY ONE…TODAY AND TONIGHT…
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK…
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS BEGINNING THIS EVENING. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION…
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS REGION THIS AFTERNOON…DRAGGING A COLD FRONT INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WHILE THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
CAPPED MUCH OF THE DAY…THE COMBINATION OF LIFT IN THE VICINITY OF
THE FRONT AND DRYLINE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING MAY BE ENOUGH TO
PROMOTE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. STORMS WILL INITIALLY
FORM OVER THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES AND MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD
INTO PARTS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. ADDITIONAL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING
AS THE FRONT ADVANCES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN
OKLAHOMA.
PROBABILITY TABLE…
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT TUESDAY MAR 27.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA…30 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR…10 PERCENT.
OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER…
NONE.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY…
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK…
A FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE AREA TUESDAY…WITH A WARM AND MOIST
AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. AS A SERIES OF
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES INTERACTS WITH THIS AIRMASS…ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
DAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY STRONGER STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD…BUT GIVEN MODEST
INSTABILITY AND RATHER WEAK WIND FIELDS…ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT EXPECTED.
OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER…
NONE.
Hazardous weather outlook, from the National Weather Service, Amarillo, Texas (coverage area includes the Oklahoma Panhandle)
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
SUN MAR 25 2012
CIMARRON-TEXAS-BEAVER-DALLAM-SHERMAN-HANSFORD-OCHILTREE-LIPSCOMB-
HARTLEY-MOORE-HUTCHINSON-ROBERTS-HEMPHILL-OLDHAM-POTTER-CARSON-
GRAY-WHEELER-DEAF SMITH-RANDALL-ARMSTRONG-DONLEY-COLLINGSWORTH-
SUN MAR 25 2012
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.
.DAY ONE…TODAY AND TONIGHT.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL
COMBINE WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BETWEEN 10 AND 20 PERCENT TO
CREATE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PANHANDLES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. IF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP…A
FEW MAY BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE WESTERN PANHANDLES MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MONDAY EVENING.
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH ALONG WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
BETWEEN 10 AND 20 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. IF ANY STORMS DEVELOP IN THESE PERIODS…SOME MAY BE
STRONG…WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT…
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
AREA FIRE MANAGERS AND EMERGENCY OFFICIALS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR
ELEVATED OR NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY AND TOMORROW.
Hazardous weather outlook, from the National Weather Service, Tulsa
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
SUN MAR 25 2012
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
SUN MAR 25 2012
THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
.DAY ONE…TODAY AND TONIGHT.
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT…
SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT EXPECTED.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
MONDAY…NO HAZARDS.
TUESDAY…THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL…HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY…THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY…NO HAZARDS.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY…THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION…
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY BEFORE STALLING
OUT NORTH OF THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER. THERE WILL BE A SMALL
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE PROXIMITY
OF THIS FRONT…MAINLY NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING LOW THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TO ALL OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.
Hazardous weather outlook, from the National Weather Service, Norman
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
SUN MAR 25 2012
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
SUN MAR 25 2012
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN…WESTERN…
CENTRAL…AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA…AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
.DAY ONE…TODAY AND TONIGHT…
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK…
NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION…
A VERY WARM AND STABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.
PROBABILITY TABLE…
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT MONDAY MAR 26.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA…ZERO PERCENT.
OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER…
PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING…ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING
AREAS. THIS MAY LEAD TO BRIEF REDUCTION IN VISIBILITIES…BUT
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY…
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK…
MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON…ALLOWING A POTENT MID LEVEL STORM SYSTEM TO MOVE
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A TRAILING FRONT
AND DRYLINE MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER
WESTERN OKLAHOMA LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT. AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS THE AREA IN THE PRESENCE OF AMPLE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY…THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. WITH RATHER WEAK
UPPER LEVEL WINDS AND MARGINAL FORCING…HOWEVER…THE POTENTIAL FOR
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS LOW.
OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER…
NONE.
Drought information statement, from the National Weather Service, Norman
DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1030 AM CDT FRI MAR 23 2012
…EXTREME TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONTINUES ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA AND PART OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS…
…DROUGHT ENDS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN…CENTRAL…AND NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA…
SYNOPSIS…
ACCORDING TO THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR…DATED MARCH 20TH…EXTREME
TO SEVERE DROUGHT COVERS A PORTION OF SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND THE
ADJACENT PART OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. IN FACT…A SMALL AREA OF
EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT…THE HIGHEST DROUGHT CATEGORY….COVERS PARTS
OF HARDEMAN…FOARD…KNOX…WILBARGER AND BAYLOR COUNTIES IN TEXAS.
MODERATE DROUGHT COVERS THE REST OF SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA INCLUDING A
FEW AREAS OF WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. WETTER THAN
AVERAGE RAINFALL OVER THE PAST THREE TO SIX MONTHS HAS ERASED THE
DROUGHT ACROSS A LARGE PART OF SOUTHERN…CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA.
THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR USES FIVE CLASSIFICATIONS…LABELED D0-D4.
DROUGHT LEVELS…
D0 — ABNORMALLY DRY OR RECOVERING FROM DROUGHT
D1 — MODERATE DROUGHT
D2 — SEVERE DROUGHT
D3 — EXTREME DROUGHT
D4 — EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT
A GRAPHICAL DEPICTION OF DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND ONLINE AT
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN HOMEPAGE AND THE CLIMATE
PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) DROUGHT MONITOR PAGE.
CLIMATE SUMMARY…
WELCOME RAINFALL…WITH MOST AREAS RECEIVING ABOVE AVERAGE
PRECIPITATION…OCCURRED DURING THE LAST THREE MONTH OF 2011.
THE WETTER THAN AVERAGE TREND CONTINUED DURING THE FIRST FEW MONTHS
OF 2012. JANUARY OF 2012 SAW MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE RAINFALL ACROSS A
LARGE PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA…INCLUDING A FEW
AREAS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER…THE WESTERN THIRD OF OKLAHOMA
AND PART OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WERE RELATIVELY DRY. DURING THE
MONTH OF FEBRUARY…THE AXIS OF ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL SHIFTED TO
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA…WHILE THE SOUTHERN TW0-THIRDS
OF THE STATE AND NORTH TEXAS WERE GENERALLY DRY. A RECENT SLOW
MOVING STORM SYSTEM…PRODUCED VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA AND SOME AREAS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA.
OVERALL…THE RAINFALL SINCE OCTOBER 2011 HAS ERASED DROUGHT
CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN…CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
MOST OF SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT AREAS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
ARE STILL PLAGUED WITH SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT.
THE TABLE BELOW INDICATES THE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION SINCE JANUARY
1…2012 FOR SEVERAL CLIMATE DIVISIONS IN OKLAHOMA AND A FEW
LOCATIONS FROM WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
CLIMATE TOTAL DEPARTURE RANK SINCE
DIVISION PRECIPITATION FROM NORMAL 1921
——– ——– ———– ———-
N.CENTRAL 6.58″ +2.61″ 7TH WETTEST
W.CENTRAL 4.46″ +0.81″ 17TH WETTEST
CENTRAL 7.45″ +2.03″ 8TH WETTEST
SOUTHWEST 4.94″ +1.02″ 17TH WETTEST
S.CENTRAL 10.11″ +3.59″ 8TH WETTEST
STATEWIDE 7.75″ +2.43″ 8TH WETTEST
WICHITA FALLS 6.15″ +1.71″
KNOX CITY* 3.58″
GOODLETT* 3.65″
SEYMOUR* 3.74″
*APPROXIMATE LOCATION
PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK…
THE 6 TO 10 DAY AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION
CENTER FORECAST A MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ALONG WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.
THE THREE MONTH OUTLOOK WHICH INCLUDES THE MONTHS OF APRIL…
MAY AND JUNE…FORECAST EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE…NORMAL OR BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION.
SUMMARY OF IMPACTS…
FIRE DANGER…
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION…ESPECIALLY DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF MARCH…HAS RESULTED IN AN EARLY START TO THE
GROWING SEASON. IN THE SHORT TERM…THIS WILL HELP REDUCE THE
RISK OF WILDFIRES DURING THE EARLY SPRING ON DRY AND WINDY DAYS.
HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK…
DUE TO THE SIGNIFICANT RAINS THAT HAVE FALLEN DURING THE PAST FEW
DAYS…ALMOST ALL OF THE RIVERS AND CREEKS IN THE REGION WERE
FLOWING AT RATES THAT ARE NEAR NORMAL OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. IN FACT…MANY RIVERS AND CREEKS IN THE EASTERN HALF OF
OKLAHOMA WERE EXHIBITING 7-DAY STREAM FLOW AVERAGES THAT WERE EITHER
IN THE 76 TO 90 PERCENT (ABOVE NORMAL) RANGE OR THE GREATER THAN 90
PERCENT (MUCH ABOVE NORMAL) RANGE. IN ADDITION…SEVERAL RIVERS AND
CREEKS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA HAVE ALSO EXPERIENCED
FLOODING OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. ACCORDING TO THE USGS…BELOW
NORMAL HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS WERE OCCURRING ONLY IN PORTIONS OF THE
CANADIAN RIVER AND NORTH FORK RED RIVER BASINS IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA.
RESERVOIR CONDITIONS AS OF MARCH 22ND…
LEVELS IN THE RESERVOIRS VARIED GREATLY IN THE ARKANSAS AND RED
RIVER DRAINAGE AREAS. RESERVOIRS IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
ARE AT OR ABOVE THEIR NORMAL POOL ELEVATIONS…BUT SOME RESERVOIRS
IN WESTERN/SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS RANGE ABOUT 3
TO 25 FEET BELOW THEIR NORMAL POOLS…OR ABOUT 5 TO 80 PERCENT BELOW
THEIR NORMAL STORAGE CAPACITIES. BELOW IS A LIST OF RESERVOIRS WITH
THE LATEST ELEVATIONS AND NORMAL POOLS.
*** ARKANSAS RIVER BASIN ***
GREAT SALT PLAINS LAKE 1125.0 1125.61
KAW LAKE 1009.0 1012.48
FORT SUPPLY LAKE 2004.0 2004.78
LAKE HEFNER 1199.0 1195.87
CANTON LAKE 1615.4 1606.25
ARCADIA LAKE 1006.0 1008.38
SHAWNEE LAKE NO. 1 1067.0 1067.95
STANLEY DRAPER LAKE 1191.0 1166.85
LAKE THUNDERBIRD 1039.0 1036.48
*** RED RIVER BASIN ***
ALTUS LAKE 1559.0 1533.27
TOM STEED LAKE 1411.0 1403.84
LAKE KEMP 1144.0 1126.16
DUNDEE LAKE DIVERSION 1051.0 1050.25
LAKE KICKAPOO 1045.0 1036.83
LAKE ARROWHEAD 926.4 918.30
WAURIKA LAKE 951.4 945.79
FOSS LAKE 1642.0 1635.38
FORT COBB LAKE 1342.0 1339.27
ARBUCKLE LAKE 872.0 871.61
LAKE TEXOMA 615.0 618.77
ATOKA LAKE 590.0 588.75
MCGEE CREEK LAKE 577.1 582.93
Hazardous weather outlook, from the National Weather Service, Amarillo, Texas (coverage area includes Oklahoma Panhandle)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
FRI MAR 23 2012
CIMARRON-TEXAS-BEAVER-DALLAM-SHERMAN-HANSFORD-OCHILTREE-LIPSCOMB-
HARTLEY-MOORE-HUTCHINSON-ROBERTS-HEMPHILL-OLDHAM-POTTER-CARSON-
GRAY-WHEELER-DEAF SMITH-RANDALL-ARMSTRONG-DONLEY-COLLINGSWORTH-
FRI MAR 23 2012
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.
.DAY ONE…TODAY AND TONIGHT.
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE PANHANDLES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP MAY BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
DUE TO BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN
PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT…
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
AREA FIRE MANAGERS AND EMERGENCY OFFICIALS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR
POSSIBLE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
Hazardous weather outlook, from the National Weather Service, Tulsa
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
FRI MAR 23 2012
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
FRI MAR 23 2012
THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
.DAY ONE…TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
RISK…LIMITED.
AREA…NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET…THIS AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION…
THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS ON THE BACK SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI. IF
STORMS DO DEVELOP…THEY WILL DISSIPATE OR MOVE OUT OF THE AREA
BEFORE SUNSET.
SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT…
SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT EXPECTED.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY…NO HAZARDS.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY…THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION…
DRY AND MILD WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK…WITH THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE AREA AND
STALLS.
Hazardous weather outlook, from the National Weather Service, Norman
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
458 AM CDT FRI MAR 23 2012
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN…WESTERN…
CENTRAL…AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA…AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
.DAY ONE…TODAY AND TONIGHT…
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK…
NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION…
THE POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT RESULTED IN
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION HAS MOVED NORTHEAST…
RESULTING IN UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS MAINLY NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THROUGH NOON…BUT LACK OF
INSTABILITY AND AN INCREASINGLY STABLE AIRMASS WILL PREVENT
THUNDERSTORMS FROM DEVELOPING.
PROBABILITY TABLE…
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT SATURDAY MAR 24.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA…10 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR…ZERO PERCENT.
OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER…
NONE.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY…
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK…
A WARM AND DRY AIRMASS WILL TAKE SHAPE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA MONDAY EVENING AS A
STORM SYSTEM PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY AS A SERIES OF
STORM SYSTEMS AFFECTS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER…
NONE.
Hazardous weather outlook, from the National Weather Service, Tulsa
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
102 PM CDT THU MAR 22 2012
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
102 PM CDT THU MAR 22 2012
…THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT…
THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
.DAY ONE…THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
RISK…LIMITED.
AREA…PRIMARILY FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET…AFTER 3 PM.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK…ELEVATED.
AREA…PRIMARILY FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET…AFTER 3 PM.
FLASH FLOOD.
RISK…LIMITED.
AREA…EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET…AFTER 3 PM.
DISCUSSION…
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS
WILL BE FROM SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS…WHERE
A HIGHER TORNADO WARNING PROBABILITY IS SHOWN. FURTHER NORTH
ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA A LIMITED RISK OF TORNADO WARNINGS EXISTS
FOR ANY STORMS WHICH MAY BRIEFLY BECOME SEVERE NEARER THE CORE
OF THE UPPER STORM SYSTEM. ADDITIONALLY…ANY LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
MAY PRODUCE A RAPID ONSET OF FLASH FLOODING GIVEN THE WET SOIL
CONDITIONS. THE HEAVIEST RAINS AND STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE FURTHER EAST INTO ARKANSAS BY LATE EVENING.
SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT…
ACTIVATION OF LOCAL SPOTTER NETWORKS IS LIKELY.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY…NO HAZARDS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY…THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION…
DRY AND MILD WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND…WITH THE
NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING FOR MID NEXT WEEK.
