Hazardous weather outlook, from the National Weather Service, Tulsa

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
102 PM CDT THU MAR 22 2012

ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
102 PM CDT THU MAR 22 2012

…THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT…

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE…THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
RISK…LIMITED.
AREA…PRIMARILY FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET…AFTER 3 PM.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK…ELEVATED.
AREA…PRIMARILY FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET…AFTER 3 PM.

FLASH FLOOD.
RISK…LIMITED.
AREA…EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET…AFTER 3 PM.

DISCUSSION…
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING HOURS.  THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS
WILL BE FROM SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS…WHERE
A HIGHER TORNADO WARNING PROBABILITY IS SHOWN.  FURTHER NORTH
ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA A LIMITED RISK OF TORNADO WARNINGS EXISTS
FOR ANY STORMS WHICH MAY BRIEFLY BECOME SEVERE NEARER THE CORE
OF THE UPPER STORM SYSTEM.  ADDITIONALLY…ANY LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
MAY PRODUCE A RAPID ONSET OF FLASH FLOODING GIVEN THE WET SOIL
CONDITIONS.  THE HEAVIEST RAINS AND STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE FURTHER EAST INTO ARKANSAS BY LATE EVENING.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT…
ACTIVATION OF LOCAL SPOTTER NETWORKS IS LIKELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY…NO HAZARDS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY…THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION…
DRY AND MILD WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND…WITH THE
NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING FOR MID NEXT WEEK.

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