Hazardous weather outlook, from the National Weather Service, Norman
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
546 AM CDT SAT MAR 31 2012
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN…WESTERN…
CENTRAL…AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA…AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
.DAY ONE…TODAY AND TONIGHT…
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK…
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
EARLY THIS MORNING.
DISCUSSION…
EARLY THIS MORNING A SMALL CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA…WHERE THE LOW LEVEL JET WAS PROVIDING LIFT
AND TRANSPORT OF UNSTABLE AIR NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF A CAPPING
INVERSION. PEOPLE IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA WILL EXPERIENCE HEAVY
DOWNPOURS OF RAIN…SMALL HAIL…AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING. THE STRONGEST
STORMS MAY BRIEFLY BECOME SEVERE…PRODUCING HAIL OVER ONE INCH IN
DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH. THE STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DISSIPATE
AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS AFTER SUNRISE.
IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEMS…THE REST OF THE
DAY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN DRY.
PROBABILITY TABLE…
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT SUNDAY APR 1.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA…70 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR…25 PERCENT.
OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER…
THIS MORNING AREAS OF FOG WILL AFFECT MUCH OF CENTRAL…SOUTHERN…AND
WESTERN OKLAHOMA…AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. FOG WILL BECOME LOCALLY DENSE
AT TIMES…LIMITING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN 1/4 MILE. A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT…GENERALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 AND WEST OF
INTERSTATE 35…INCLUDING WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY…
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK…
THE NEXT ORGANIZED WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
TO OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE
A BROAD LINE OF STORMS CONTAINING HEAVY RAIN…AND POSSIBLY SOME SEVERE
WEATHER. THE WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS OUR REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST.
OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER…
NONE.
Softball size hail overnight
Reported to the National Weather Service, Norman Forecast Office
Time: 12:20 a.m.
Event: 4.5 HAIL
Source: trained spotter
Remark: time estimated based on radar
The spotter said there were large amounts of 4.5 on the ground.
Hazardous weather outlook, from the National Weather Service, Amarillo, Texas (coverage includes Oklahoma Panhandle)
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK…UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1155 AM CDT FRI MAR 30 2012
CIMARRON-TEXAS-BEAVER-DALLAM-SHERMAN-HANSFORD-OCHILTREE-LIPSCOMB-
HARTLEY-MOORE-HUTCHINSON-ROBERTS-HEMPHILL-OLDHAM-POTTER-CARSON-
GRAY-WHEELER-DEAF SMITH-RANDALL-ARMSTRONG-DONLEY-COLLINGSWORTH-
1155 AM CDT FRI MAR 30 2012
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.
.DAY ONE…THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR WESTERN
PANHANDLES LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. WHILE THE
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IS LOW…ANY STORMS THAT ARE ABLE
TO DEVELOP COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
SECTIONS OF THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES ON SATURDAY DUE TO
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS ALONG
WITH FORECAST MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 15 PERCENT.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF THE
OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES ON SUNDAY DUE TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20
TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF
5 TO 15 PERCENT.
IN ADDITION…STRONG NORTH WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS
ALONG WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 20 PERCENT MAY
LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON MONDAY ACROSS THE AREA.
A WIND ADVISORY MAY ALSO BECOME NECESSARY ON MONDAY ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES DUE TO THE STRONG NORTH WINDS.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT…
LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IF ANY STORMS DEVELOP.
AREA FIRE MANAGERS AND EMERGENCY OFFICIALS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR
ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
Hazardous weather outlook, from the National Weather Service, Tulsa Forecast Office
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
104 PM CDT FRI MAR 30 2012
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
104 PM CDT FRI MAR 30 2012
THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
.DAY ONE…THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
RISK…LIMITED.
AREA…NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET…THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.
DISCUSSION…
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING… HOWEVER… THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE.
SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT…
SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT EXPECTED.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SATURDAY…THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY…NO HAZARDS.
MONDAY…THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY…THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY…NO HAZARDS.
THURSDAY…NO HAZARDS.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION…
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE MONDAY AND WILL
COMBINE WITH A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW OVER WEST TX TO PRODUCE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SOME
SEVERE WEATHER IN THE FORM OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE…HOWEVER…A WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED EVENT IS NOT EXPECTED.
Possibility of severe thunderstorms today (Friday), any storms that form will likely be severe, according to the National Weather Service, Norman
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1204 PM CDT FRI MAR 30 2012
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-
NOBLE-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-
BECKHAM-WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-
CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-
TILLMAN-COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-
JEFFERSON-CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-
FOARD-WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1204 PM CDT FRI MAR 30 2012
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN…WESTERN…
CENTRAL…AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA…AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
.DAY ONE…THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT…
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK…
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
LOCATION…THE RISK AREA IS GENERALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
TIMING…THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM
5 PM THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
IMPACTS…
LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO AUTOMOBILES…ROOFTOPS…AND
VEGETATION FROM LARGE HAIL GREATER THAN BASEBALL SIZE.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH.
LOCAL URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING.
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS…
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD REMAIN ALERT TO THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AFTER 5 PM. ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM ARE LIKELY TO BE
SEVERE.
DISCUSSION…
A WEAK…SLOW MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY…EXTENDING FROM WEST CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA MAY HELP WITH
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES AND HUMID CONDITIONS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
WILL RESULT IN A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. IF A FEW STORMS CAN
FORM…VERY LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG WITH DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MAY FAVOR DEVELOPMENT IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA…WHILE A
SURFACE TROUGH FAVORS DEVELOPMENT IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. UNDER SIMILAR CONDITIONS THURSDAY EVENING…
HAIL OVER FOUR INCHES IN DIAMETER WAS OBSERVED IN WESTERN
OKLAHOMA. IF STORMS FORM THIS AFTERNOON…THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY
SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS.
PROBABILITY TABLE…
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT SATURDAY MAR 31.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA…30 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR…80 PERCENT.
OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER…
ANY SUPERCELL STORMS THAT FORM TODAY ARE PREDICTED TO HAVE A SLOW
SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT. LONG DURATION HEAVY RAINS MAY OCCUR OVER
ISOLATED LOCATIONS…RESULTING IN FLOODING.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY…
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK…
AFTER A DRY WEEKEND…A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR…SEVERE WEATHER MAY BE A
POSSIBILITY EARLY NEXT WEEK…BUT THE LEVEL OF RISK IS UNCERTAIN AT
THIS TIME.
OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER…
NONE.
Chance of severe thunderstorms today in portions of the National Weather Service, Norman coverage area
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
THU MAR 29 2012
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
THU MAR 29 2012
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN…WESTERN…
CENTRAL…AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA…AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
.DAY ONE…TODAY AND TONIGHT…
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK…
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AS WELL AS FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
LOCATION…
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA INCLUDES LOCATIONS MAINLY NORTHWEST OF A
CROWELL TO STILLWATER LINE AND SOUTH OF A GAGE TO CAMP HOUSTON
LINE…INCLUDING ENID…ALVA…ALTUS…CLINTON…ELK CITY…
SAYRE…WATONGA…WEATHERFORD…HOBART…AND PONCA CITY.
TIMING…
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM
4 PM THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
IMPACTS…
VERY LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS WILL BE THE MAIN
HAZARD WITH ANY SEVERE STORM. SOME DAMAGE TO AUTOMOBILES AND TENDER
VEGETATION FROM LARGE HAIL MAY OCCUR.
IN ADDITION…DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL.
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS…
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS FROM 4 PM
THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
DISCUSSION…
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT
AND DRYLINE OVER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK LOW PRESSURE
DISTURBANCE. THESE STORMS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO WESTERN AND
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AS WELL AS FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. STORMS WILL WEAKEN AFTER
MIDNIGHT CDT AS THEY MOVE EAST TOWARDS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
PROBABILITY TABLE…
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT FRIDAY MAR 30.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA…70 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR…60 PERCENT.
OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER…
LOCALLY DENSE FOG WILL LOWER VISIBILITIES TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS ACROSS
PARTS OF MAINLY SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THROUGH
8 AM CDT THIS MORNING.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY…
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK…
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY…MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA…AS THE LOW
PRESSURE DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF
A WICHITA FALLS TO OKLAHOMA CITY TO STILLWATER LINE.
ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR
EAST OF I-35 SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY.
OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER…
CRITICAL WILDFIRE CONDITIONS AND STRONG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS ON SUNDAY.
The Hazardous Weather Outlook, from the National Weather Service, Norman
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
WED MAR 28 2012
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-WASHITA-
CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-
SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-COMANCHE-STEPHENS-
GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-
MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
WED MAR 28 2012
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN…WESTERN…
CENTRAL…AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA…AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
.DAY ONE…THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT…
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK…
A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN AND
WESTERN OKLAHOMA… AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. HOWEVER… NO
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION…
A WEAK DRYLINE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA
AND THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH SURFACE HEATING
AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE… ENOUGH LIFT MAY DEVELOP TO
OVERCOME A CAP FOR A FEW ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. IF STORMS DEVELOP… A FEW MIGHT BECOME
STRONG PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
PROBABILITY TABLE…
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT THURSDAY MAR 29.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA…20 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR…5 PERCENT.
OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER…
NONE.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY…
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK…
THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCE MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT MAINLY OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT…ESPECIALLY EAST
OF I-35.
OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER…
CRITICAL WILDFIRE CONDITIONS AND STRONG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS ON SUNDAY.
This could be the warmest March on record for Oklahoma, according to Gary McManus of the Oklahoma Climatological Survey
With each passing day, March moves up in the record books in its quest to become the warmest on record for Oklahoma. It doesn’t have too far to look back – 2007 is the current record holder with a statewide average of 58.3 degrees.
March 2012, through the 27th, has a statewide average of 58.1 degrees … at least according to Oklahoma Mesonet numbers. Remember that the official records are based off the numbers computed by NCDC and consist of a mixture of NWS COOP and Oklahoma Mesonet numbers. But it’s pretty plain to see that this March is going to challenge that record from just five years ago.
Statewide Average Temperatures: March 1-27
High Temps Low Temps Avg Mean Temps
Mesonet Avgs 70.1F 46.1F 58.1F
Normal 62.3F 36.4F 49.4F
Dep. from Norm. 7.8F 9.7F 8.8F
Even though the high temperatures have been almost 8 degrees above normal, the low temperatures have contributed a bit more to the possible record-setting month at nearly 10 degrees above normal. It just hasn’t gotten really cold this month. Some stations have spent less than an hour at or below freezing so far this month.
Boise City leads the state’s Mesonet stations with 54 hours. There doesn’t appear to be any frigid air in store for this part of the world for the next week or so. As March marches into the record books with each passing day, the chances for a damaging freeze event, so dreaded by Oklahoma’s agricultural industry, also becomes a bit more remote. Parts of southern Oklahoma have already reached their average date for their last freeze based on 1981-2010 data.
The northern parts of the state, especially the northwest and Panhandle, still have about a 15-30 days to go. The latest last freeze during that time period shifts about another month from the average last freeze, from April 10 in the south to May 20 in the Panhandle.
While there is no really cold air showing up right now, at least the kind that can really do damage to wheat and orchard crops, it is not out of the question.
Another defense against a killing frost comes from the lack of snow cover to our north and northwest. Only 7% of the country has snow cover, and that is almost entirely in the mountainous regions. Any cold air that does plunge down this way for the near future will travel over a warm and bare land surface on its entire journey.
That will help modify any of those air masses, warming them up before they reach this far south.
Again, it doesn’t look like we’ll have another bout of that cold air for the foreseeable future, and odds diminish as we go deeper into April. But I will not gamble with such a definitive statement with what we’ve seen from the weather patterns over the last year or so.
March temperatures for Oklahoma City and Wichita Falls, Texas, according to the National Weather Service, Norman Forecast Office
Hazardous weather outlook, from the National Weather Service, Tulsa
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
WED MAR 28 2012
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
WED MAR 28 2012
…CHANCE FOR SHOWERS & STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT…
THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
.DAY ONE…TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK…LIMITED.
AREA…FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET…THIS AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION…
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT NORTH OF THE OKLAHOMA KANSAS BORDER WILL
BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS. THE GREATER POSSIBILITY LOOKS TO BE ALONG AND NEAR THE
MISSOURI AND KANSAS BORDERS AS STORMS TO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON
TRY TO FORM INTO A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX AND PUSH SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING. A LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THIS
ACTIVITY WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN HAZARDS.
SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT…
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY…THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY…NO HAZARDS.
SUNDAY…THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY…NO HAZARDS.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION…
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND WEAK SHEAR WITHIN THIS
DISTURBANCE SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. WARM TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS. A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.
