Today’s forecast in the National Weather Service, Norman Forecast Office coverage area
Very strong westerly wind gusts are expected over far west-central and
northwest Oklahoma late this afternoon and early evening. Scattered storms
will be possible across the eastern-half of Oklahoma this evening and overnight,
with the greatest chance across far north-central and northeast Oklahoma.
Guymon, 64 mph non-thunderstorm wind gust, 3:15 p.m.
Kingfisher had a wind gust of 43 mph at 2:10 p.m., according to the Oklahoma Mesonet
Goodwell had wind gusts of 57 mph at both 2:15 p.m. and 2:20 p.m., according to the Oklahoma Mesonet weather network.
Wind advisory in areas of western Oklahoma, from the National Weather Service, Norman
URGENT – WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1258 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2012
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-
CUSTER-BECKHAM-WASHITA-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-HARDEMAN-FOARD-
KNOX-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…BUFFALO…ALVA…CHEROKEE…ARNETT…
WOODWARD…FAIRVIEW…CHEYENNE…TALOGA…WEATHERFORD…CLINTON…
ELK CITY…SAYRE…CORDELL…HOLLIS…MANGUM…HOBART…ALTUS…
QUANAH…CHILLICOTHE…CROWELL…MUNDAY…KNOX CITY
1258 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2012
…WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING…
A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING.
* WINDS: SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH
WILL BE LIKELY. SOME WIND GUSTS NEAR 55 MPH MAY OCCUR ACROSS
FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
* IMPACTS: STRONG WINDS WILL MAKE TRAVEL ON EAST WEST ROADWAYS
DIFFICULT…PARTICULARLY IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. SECURE ANY
LOOSE OR LIGHTWEIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS TO KEEP THEM FROM BLOWING
AROUND AND CAUSING POTENTIAL DAMAGE.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…
BE CAREFUL IF YOU HAVE TO TRAVEL OR IF YOU ARE WORKING OR PLAYING
OUTSIDE.
Red Flag Warning in areas of far western Oklahoma, from the National Weather Service, Norman
URGENT – FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1258 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2012
HARPER-WOODS-ELLIS-WOODWARD-ROGER MILLS-BECKHAM-HARMON-GREER-
JACKSON-HARDEMAN-FOARD-KNOX-
1258 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2012
…RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS…
* HUMIDITY…NEAR 20 PERCENT.
* TEMPERATURE…LOWER TO UPPER 70S.
* IMPACTS…ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY.
OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.
* STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND A DRYLINE. MOST WIND
GUSTS WILL AVERAGE 45 MPH BUT A FEW GUSTS NEAR 55 MPH MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…
FIRES MAY START EASILY AND SPREAD RAPIDLY. REPORT SMOKE OR FIRE
TO YOUR LOCAL FIRE DEPARTMENT.
Hazardous weather outlook, from the National Weather Service, Norman
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1145 AM CST TUE FEB 28 2012
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN…WESTERN…
CENTRAL…AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA…AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
.DAY ONE…TODAY AND TONIGHT…
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK…
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING.
LOCATION…
THE SLIGHT RISK IS GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM ENID TO DUNCAN.
TIMING…
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM 5 PM
THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
IMPACTS…
HAIL TO THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS AND WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH WILL BE
THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY SEVERE STORM.
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS…
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS TODAY.
DISCUSSION…
AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES OUT INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. MEANWHILE… A DRYLINE WILL MOVE
EAST INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON… AND THEN TOWARD CENTRAL SECTIONS OF OKLAHOMA DURING THE
EVENING HOURS.
ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY…
THE PRESENCE OF A LAYER OF WARM AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER… BY EARLY EVENING THIS LAYER
OF WARM AIR IS EXPECTED TO ERODE. THIS WILL ALLOW SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. A FEW
OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE AS MODEST AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY
AND FAVORABLE WIND FIELDS WILL EXIST. THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST OUT OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AS DRIER
AND MORE STABLE AIR OVERSPREADS THE REGION.
PROBABILITY TABLE…
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CST WEDNESDAY FEB 29.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA…100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR…40 PERCENT.
OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER…
THE POTENTIAL FOR WILDFIRES THAT WOULD EXHIBIT VERY HIGH TO EXTREME
FIRE BEHAVIOR WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND A DRYLINE. PLEASE
REFER TO THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR DETAILS. VERY STRONG SOUTHWEST TO
WEST WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON…WITH
SOME GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA. REFER TO
THE LATEST WIND ADVISORY FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY…
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK…
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER…
THERE WILL BE AN ELEVATED WILDFIRE CONCERN ON THURSDAY AS VERY
WARM… WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS DEVELOP.
Hazardous weather outlook in the National Weather Service, Norman Forecast Office coverage area
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
930 AM CST TUE FEB 28 2012
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
930 AM CST TUE FEB 28 2012
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN…WESTERN…
CENTRAL…AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA…AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
.DAY ONE…TODAY AND TONIGHT…
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK…
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
LOCATION…
THE SLIGHT RISK IS GENERALLY NORTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM ARCHER
CITY TO QUANAH TO CLINTON TO CHEROKEE.
TIMING…
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM 4 PM
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
IMPACTS…
HAIL TO THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS AND WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH WILL BE
THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY SEVERE STORM.
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS…
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS TODAY.
DISCUSSION…
AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES OUT INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. MEANWHILE… A DRYLINE WILL
TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES LATER THIS
MORNING. THE DRYLINE WILL MOVE EAST INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON… AND THEN TOWARD CENTRAL
SECTIONS OF OKLAHOMA DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY…
THE PRESENCE OF A LAYER OF WARM AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. HOWEVER… BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THIS LAYER OF WARM AIR IS EXPECTED TO ERODE. THIS MAY
ALLOW WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE DRYLINE FROM WESTERN NORTH TEXAS INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. A FEW
OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE AS MODEST AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY
AND FAVORABLE WIND FIELDS WILL EXIST. A SOMEWHAT GREATER THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST MAINLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 THIS EVENING
AS THE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT MOVES INTO BETTER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA. THE RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST OUT OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AS
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR OVERSPREADS THE REGION.
PROBABILITY TABLE…
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CST WEDNESDAY FEB 29.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA…100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR…40 PERCENT.
OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER…
THE POTENTIAL FOR WILDFIRES THAT WOULD EXHIBIT VERY HIGH TO EXTREME
FIRE BEHAVIOR WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND A DRYLINE. PLEASE
REFER TO THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR DETAILS. VERY STRONG SOUTHWEST TO
WEST WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON…WITH
SOME GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA. REFER TO
THE LATEST WIND ADVISORY FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY…
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK…
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER…
THERE WILL BE AN ELEVATED WILDFIRE CONCERN ON THURSDAY AS VERY
WARM… WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS DEVELOP.
Short-term forecast, from the National Weather Service, Norman
ALFALFA-ARCHER-ATOKA-BAYLOR-BECKHAM-BLAINE-BRYAN-CADDO-CANADIAN-
CARTER-CLAY-CLEVELAND-COAL-COMANCHE-COTTON-CUSTER-DEWEY-ELLIS-FOARD-
GARFIELD-GARVIN-GRADY-GRANT-GREER-HARDEMAN-HARMON-HARPER-HUGHES-
JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSTON-KAY-KINGFISHER-KIOWA-KNOX-LINCOLN-LOGAN-
LOVE-MAJOR- MARSHALL-MCCLAIN-MURRAY-NOBLE-OKLAHOMA-PAYNE-PONTOTOC-
POTTAWATOMIE-ROGER MILLS-SEMINOLE-STEPHENS-TILLMAN-WASHITA-WICHITA-
WILBARGER-
917 AM CST TUE FEB 28 2012
.REGIONAL WEATHER DISCUSSION…
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD FROM WESTERN NORTH TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA. THROUGH 11 AM…THE PRECIPITATION WILL MAINLY AFFECT AREAS
SOUTHEAST OF A QUANAH TEXAS TO CHEROKEE OKLAHOMA LINE. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH.
Hazardous weather outlook, from the National Weather Service, Tulsa Forecast Office
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
505 AM CST TUE FEB 28 2012
ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-291100-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
505 AM CST TUE FEB 28 2012
…SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT…
THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
.DAY ONE…TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
RISK…LIMITED.
AREA…SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET…THIS EVENING.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK…ELEVATED.
AREA…EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET…THIS EVENING.
SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
RISK…LIMITED.
AREA…EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET…MID MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
RISK…LIMITED.
AREA…NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET…MID MORNING.
DISCUSSION…
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BY MID TO LATE MORNING ACROSS MOST
OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS…WITH GUSTS REACHING
35 MPH AT TIMES. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A LIMITED RISK
OF RAPID FIRE SPREAD ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
PERHAPS FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS…ALTHOUGH LOCALLY…THE FIRE
DANGER MAY BE REDUCED BY SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
THE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A COOL FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA AND A
POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS REGION.
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR WELL AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY…IN RESPONSE TO A LOW LEVEL JET OVER FAR EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
ARE MORE THAN SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT…WITH LARGE
HAIL…PERHAPS TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS…AND DAMAGING WINDS THE
PRIMARY THREATS. A FAIRLY STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION IS EXPECTED
TO BE IN PLACE…HINDERING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE BASED
SUPERCELLS…AND ALSO SIGNIFICANTLY LIMITING THE TORNADO THREAT.
HOWEVER…LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE MORE THAN STRONG ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT TORNADOES IF ANY STORMS CAN BECOME SURFACE BASED.
THEREFORE…THE TORNADO THREAT…WHILE NOT ZERO…IS HIGHLY
CONDITIONAL.
THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LOCATED EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 69
CORRIDOR…LIKELY BETWEEN THE HOURS OF 8 PM AND MIDNIGHT. A LESSER
SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
THE AFOREMENTIONED COOL FRONT WILL PUSH QUICKLY THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT…ENDING THE PRECIPITATION BEFORE SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.
SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT…
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK LIKELY.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY…VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY…THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL…VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL…
HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY…THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL…VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY…VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY…NO HAZARDS.
MONDAY…VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL…HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION…
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS…CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES…AND
DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL LEAD TO INCREASED FIRE DANGER WEDNESDAY.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION FOR THURSDAY AND
INCREASE IN SPEED…LEADING TO A CONTINUED ELEVATED FIRE DANGER.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA LATE THURSDAY AND
INTO FRIDAY…AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHEN
THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA…BUT IF THE SLOWER SOLUTION
VERIFIES…A THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST FOR FRIDAY.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND LOWER DEW POINTS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
ON SATURDAY WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY OF INCREASED FIRE DANGER.
AFTER A REPRIEVE ON SUNDAY…WARMER TEMPERATURES AND A RETURN TO
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL AGAIN LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE SPREAD
CONDITIONS ON MONDAY.
Hail and strong wind gusts possible today, according to the National Weather Service, Norman Forecast Office
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
450 AM CST TUE FEB 28 2012
OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-281800-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
450 AM CST TUE FEB 28 2012
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN…WESTERN…
CENTRAL…AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA…AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
.DAY ONE…TODAY AND TONIGHT…
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK…
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LOCATION…
THE SLIGHT RISK IS NEAR AND EAST OF A LINE FROM CHANDLER TO
PURCELL… TO HEALDTON AND MARIETTA.
TIMING…
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM 4 PM
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
IMPACTS…
HAIL TO THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS AND WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH WILL BE
THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY SEVERE STORM.
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS…
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS TODAY.
DISCUSSION…
AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES OUT INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. MEANWHILE… A DRYLINE WILL
TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES LATER THIS
MORNING. THE DRYLINE WILL MOVE EAST INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON… AND THEN TOWARD CENTRAL
SECTIONS OF OKLAHOMA DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY…
THE PRESENCE OF A LAYER OF WARM AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER… BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THIS
LAYER OF WARM AIR IS EXPECTED TO ERODE. THIS WILL ALLOW SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. A FEW
OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE AS MODEST AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY
AND FAVORABLE WIND FIELDS WILL EXIST. THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE EVENING AS DRIER AND
MORE STABLE AIR OVERSPREADS THE REGION.
PROBABILITY TABLE…
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CST WEDNESDAY FEB 29.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA…100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR…40 PERCENT.
OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER…
THE POTENTIAL FOR WILDFIRES THAT WOULD EXHIBIT VERY HIGH TO EXTREME
FIRE BEHAVIOR WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND A DRYLINE. PLEASE
REFER TO THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR DETAILS. VERY STRONG SOUTHWEST TO
WEST WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON…WITH
SOME GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA. REFER TO
THE LATEST WIND ADVISORY FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY…
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK…
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER…
THERE WILL BE AN ELEVATED WILDFIRE CONCERN ON THURSDAY AS VERY
WARM… WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS DEVELOP.
