Significant weather advisory, from the National Weather Service, Norman
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
731 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2012
OKZ005>007-011-012-290200-
GARFIELD OK-GRANT OK-MAJOR OK-WOODS OK-ALFALFA OK-
731 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2012
…SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY…
THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR ALFALFA…GARFIELD…
GRANT…MAJOR AND WOODS COUNTIES.
AT 731 PM CST…A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM 4
MILES SOUTHEAST OF WALDRON…TO CHEROKEE…TO 5 MILES WEST OF
ALINE…MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 45 MPH.
HAZARDS INCLUDE…
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS…
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH…
MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE ALERT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS.
FYI: Northwest of Wichita, Kan., Tornado Warning, from the National Weather Service, Wichita, Kan.
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
717 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2012
KSC079-113-155-290130-
/O.CON.KICT.TO.W.0002.000000T0000Z-120229T0130Z/
RENO KS-MCPHERSON KS-HARVEY KS-
717 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2012
…A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN HARVEY…
SOUTHEASTERN MCPHERSON AND NORTHEASTERN RENO COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM
CST…
AT 714 PM CST…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR MOUNDRIDGE…OR 14 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
MCPHERSON…MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.
THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING BRIEF TORNADO TOUCHDOWNS
SOUTHWEST OF THE HUTCHINSON AREA…AND COULD PRODUCE ANOTHER TORNADO
AT ANY TIME!
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE…
HESSTON.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…
TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER…CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN WICHITA.
Wind advisory extended, from the National Weather Service, Norman
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-
CUSTER-BECKHAM-WASHITA-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-HARDEMAN-FOARD-
KNOX-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…BUFFALO…ALVA…CHEROKEE…ARNETT…
WOODWARD…FAIRVIEW…CHEYENNE…TALOGA…WEATHERFORD…CLINTON…
ELK CITY…SAYRE…CORDELL…HOLLIS…MANGUM…HOBART…ALTUS…
QUANAH…CHILLICOTHE…CROWELL…MUNDAY…KNOX CITY
656 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2012
…WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING…
* WINDS: SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH WILL
BE LIKELY. SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 55 MPH MAY OCCUR ACROSS FAR
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS EVENING.
* IMPACTS: STRONG WINDS WILL MAKE TRAVEL ON EAST WEST ROADWAYS
DIFFICULT…PARTICULARLY IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. AREAS OF
BLOWING DUST MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES AND IMPACT TRAVEL.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…
BE CAREFUL IF YOU HAVE TO TRAVEL OR IF YOU ARE WORKING OR PLAYING
OUTSIDE.
Red Flag Warning extended, from the National Weather Service, Norman
URGENT – FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE…UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
655 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2012
HARPER-WOODS-ELLIS-WOODWARD-ROGER MILLS-BECKHAM-HARMON-GREER-
JACKSON-HARDEMAN-FOARD-KNOX-
655 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2012
…RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING…
THE RED FLAG WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS
EVENING.
* HUMIDITY…NEAR 10 TO 20 PERCENT.
* TEMPERATURE…UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S.
* IMPACTS…ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY.
OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.
* STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR BEHIND A DRYLINE. MOST WIND GUSTS
WILL AVERAGE 45 MPH BUT A FEW GUSTS AROUND 55 MPH MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…
FIRES MAY START EASILY AND SPREAD RAPIDLY. REPORT SMOKE OR FIRE
TO YOUR LOCAL FIRE DEPARTMENT.
Significant weather advisory for Alfalfa, Major, Woods, Woodward counties, National Weather Service, Norman
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
703 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2012
OKZ005-006-010-011-290130-
WOODWARD OK-MAJOR OK-WOODS OK-ALFALFA OK-
703 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2012
…SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY…
THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR ALFALFA…MAJOR…WOODS AND
WOODWARD COUNTIES.
AT 701 PM CST…A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM 8
MILES NORTH OF CAPRON TO 4 MILES WEST OF WAYNOKA…MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 45 MPH.
HAZARDS INCLUDE…
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS…
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH…
MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE ALERT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS.
Short-term forecast from the National Weather Service, Norman
SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
513 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2012
ALFALFA-ARCHER-ATOKA-BAYLOR-BECKHAM-BLAINE-BRYAN-CADDO-CANADIAN-
CARTER-CLAY-CLEVELAND-COAL-COMANCHE-COTTON-CUSTER-DEWEY-ELLIS-FOARD-
GARFIELD-GARVIN-GRADY-GRANT-GREER-HARDEMAN-HARMON-HARPER-HUGHES-
JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSTON-KAY-KINGFISHER-KIOWA-KNOX-LINCOLN-LOGAN-
LOVE-MAJOR- MARSHALL-MCCLAIN-MURRAY-NOBLE-OKLAHOMA-PAYNE-PONTOTOC-
POTTAWATOMIE-ROGER MILLS-SEMINOLE-STEPHENS-TILLMAN-WASHITA-WICHITA-
WILBARGER-
513 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2012
.REGIONAL WEATHER DISCUSSION…
AS A DRYLINE MOVES OVER WESTERN PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS…VERY STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE SEEN. THE STRONGEST WIND
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHWEST AND
WEST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA…FROM CHEYENNE AND CAMARGO…UP THROUGH
WOODWARD…BUFFALO…FREEDOM…AND ALVA. SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 50
MPH ARE POSSIBLE. THERE WILL ALSO BE REDUCED VISIBILITIES ACROSS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS DUE TO BLOWING DUST.
FARTHER EAST TOWARD NORTH-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA…IT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WARM…HUMID…AND BREEZY THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS WILL TRY TO DEVELOP DOWN INTO FAR
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BETWEEN 5 AND 7 PM. THIS TREND MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING AS STORMS TRY TO DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH WITH
TIME. WHEN A STORM DOES FORM…IT WILL MOVE QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST
AND MAY BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
LARGE HAIL. THE THREAT OF STRONG AND SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE EAST OF THE NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA TOWARD OR SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT.
Hazardous weather outlook, from the National Weather Service, Tulsa
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
504 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2012
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
458 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2012
…SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT…
THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
.DAY ONE…TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
RISK…LIMITED.
AREA…EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET…AFTER 8 PM.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK…ELEVATED.
AREA…EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET…AFTER 8 PM.
SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
RISK…LIMITED.
AREA…EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET…ONGOING..
DISCUSSION…
THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A COOL FRONT APPROACHES IN RESPONSE TO A POTENT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
IN RESPONSE TO A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AFTER SUNSET. INSTABILITY
AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR ARE MORE THAN SUPPORTIVE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT… WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE
PRIMARY THREATS. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED… STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND
FIELDS WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASED TORNADO THREAT WITH ANY
SUPERCELLS THAT DO DEVELOP. THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BEGIN
AROUND MID EVENING AND CONTINUE WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
BEFORE THE FRONT SWEEPS SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA AROUND 3 AM.
SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT…
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK LIKELY.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY…VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY…THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL…VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL…HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY…THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL…VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY…NO HAZARDS.
SUNDAY…NO HAZARDS.
MONDAY…VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION…
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS…CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES…AND
DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL LEAD TO INCREASED FIRE DANGER WEDNESDAY.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION FOR THURSDAY AND
INCREASE IN SPEED…LEADING TO A CONTINUED ELEVATED FIRE DANGER.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA LATE THURSDAY AND
INTO FRIDAY…AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHEN
THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA…BUT IF THE SLOWER SOLUTION
VERIFIES…A THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST FOR FRIDAY.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND LOWER DEW POINTS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
ON SATURDAY WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY OF INCREASED FIRE DANGER.
AFTER A REPRIEVE ON SUNDAY…WARMER TEMPERATURES AND A RETURN TO
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL AGAIN LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE SPREAD
CONDITIONS ON MONDAY.
As of 4:30 p.m., peak winds speeds in the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles, National Weather Service, Amarillo, Texas
Hazardous weather outlook, from the National Weather Service, Norman
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
435 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2012
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN…WESTERN…
CENTRAL…AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA…AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
.DAY ONE…THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT…
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK…
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHERN…CENTRAL…AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA.
LOCATION…
THE SLIGHT RISK COVERS LOCATIONS EAST OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM
CHEROKEE…TO EL RENO AND CHICKASHA…TO DUNCAN AND WAURIKA.
TIMING…
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM 7 PM
THROUGH 2 AM.
IMPACTS…
HAIL TO THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS AND WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH WILL BE
THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY SEVERE STORM.
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS…
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
DISCUSSION…
A DRYLINE WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
THIS EVENING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A LOW-LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES.
ONCE A STORM FORMS…IT WILL MOVE QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST. ALTHOUGH
THERE IS NOT A LOT OF INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH…STRONG WIND FIELDS
MAY YIELD STORMS THAT PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS LARGE
HAIL.
PROBABILITY TABLE…
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CST WEDNESDAY FEB 29.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA…100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR…40 PERCENT.
OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER…
VERY STRONG SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING WEST OF THE MENTIONED DRYLINE. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL MOST
LIKELY AFFECT WEST-CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST PARTS OF OKLAHOMA.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY…
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK…
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER…
THERE WILL BE AN ELEVATED WILDFIRE CONCERN ON THURSDAY AS VERY
WARM…WINDY…AND DRY CONDITIONS DEVELOP.
Area forecast discussion in the National Weather Service, Norman coverage area
3:23 p.m.: THE DRYLINE HAS BEEN SLOW TO MOVE THIS
AFTERNOON…CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. STILL…STRONG SOUTH
WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND IT IS EXPECTED TO
REACH OUR WESTERN OKLAHOMA COUNTIES IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
FREQUENT WIND GUSTS OVER 50 MPH HAVE BEEN OBSERVED BEHIND THE
DRYLINE ALONG WITH VERY LOW HUMIDITIES. AS SUCH…WILDFIRE
POTENTIAL WILL BECOME EXTREME OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT
COUNTIES IN WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THROUGH THE EVENING.
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ALONG THE DRYLINE THIS EVENING REMAINS
UNCERTAIN…BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT AT LEAST A FEW STORMS WILL
INITIATE ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING. ONLY LIMITING
FACTOR NOW APPEARS TO BE WEAK CAPPING INVERSION AND SOMEWHAT
MODEST INSTABILITY…THOUGH RECENT NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS DO SHOW
THE CAP ERODING THROUGH THE EVENING. ANY STORM THAT MANAGES TO
DEVELOP WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF BECOMING SEVERE…WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS…THOUGH CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE
LIMITED. AS A COLD FRONT SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD AND OVERTAKES THE
DRYLINE TONIGHT…WILL SEE AN EXPANSION IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WITH CONTINUED LOW PROBABILITIES OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS…PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
