Hazardous weather outlook, from the National Weather Service, Tulsa

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
504 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2012

ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
458 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2012

…SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT…

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE…TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
RISK…LIMITED.
AREA…EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET…AFTER 8 PM.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK…ELEVATED.
AREA…EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET…AFTER 8 PM.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
RISK…LIMITED.
AREA…EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET…ONGOING..

DISCUSSION…
THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A COOL FRONT APPROACHES IN RESPONSE TO A POTENT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
IN RESPONSE TO A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AFTER SUNSET. INSTABILITY
AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR ARE MORE THAN SUPPORTIVE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT… WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE
PRIMARY THREATS. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED… STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND
FIELDS WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASED TORNADO THREAT WITH ANY
SUPERCELLS THAT DO DEVELOP. THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BEGIN
AROUND MID EVENING AND CONTINUE WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
BEFORE THE FRONT SWEEPS SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA AROUND 3 AM.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT…
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK LIKELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY…VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY…THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL…VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL…HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY…THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL…VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY…NO HAZARDS.
SUNDAY…NO HAZARDS.
MONDAY…VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION…
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS…CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES…AND
DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL LEAD TO INCREASED FIRE DANGER WEDNESDAY.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION FOR THURSDAY AND
INCREASE IN SPEED…LEADING TO A CONTINUED ELEVATED FIRE DANGER.

A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA LATE THURSDAY AND
INTO FRIDAY…AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHEN
THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA…BUT IF THE SLOWER SOLUTION
VERIFIES…A THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST FOR FRIDAY.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND LOWER DEW POINTS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
ON SATURDAY WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY OF INCREASED FIRE DANGER.
AFTER A REPRIEVE ON SUNDAY…WARMER TEMPERATURES AND A RETURN TO
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL AGAIN LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE SPREAD
CONDITIONS ON MONDAY.

Thank you for joining our conversation on Oklahoma Weather Blog. We encourage your discussion but ask that you stay within the bounds of our commenting and posting policy.