Area forecast discussion in the National Weather Service, Norman coverage area
3:23 p.m.: THE DRYLINE HAS BEEN SLOW TO MOVE THIS
AFTERNOON…CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. STILL…STRONG SOUTH
WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND IT IS EXPECTED TO
REACH OUR WESTERN OKLAHOMA COUNTIES IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
FREQUENT WIND GUSTS OVER 50 MPH HAVE BEEN OBSERVED BEHIND THE
DRYLINE ALONG WITH VERY LOW HUMIDITIES. AS SUCH…WILDFIRE
POTENTIAL WILL BECOME EXTREME OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT
COUNTIES IN WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THROUGH THE EVENING.
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ALONG THE DRYLINE THIS EVENING REMAINS
UNCERTAIN…BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT AT LEAST A FEW STORMS WILL
INITIATE ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING. ONLY LIMITING
FACTOR NOW APPEARS TO BE WEAK CAPPING INVERSION AND SOMEWHAT
MODEST INSTABILITY…THOUGH RECENT NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS DO SHOW
THE CAP ERODING THROUGH THE EVENING. ANY STORM THAT MANAGES TO
DEVELOP WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF BECOMING SEVERE…WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS…THOUGH CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE
LIMITED. AS A COLD FRONT SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD AND OVERTAKES THE
DRYLINE TONIGHT…WILL SEE AN EXPANSION IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WITH CONTINUED LOW PROBABILITIES OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS…PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
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