Area forecast discussion from the National Weather Service, Norman
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
322 PM CST TUE JAN 31 2012
.DISCUSSION…
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MAKING SLOW PROGRESS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL/
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA TONIGHT. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT AND THEN ACROSS THE PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE STALLED
FRONT.
AFTER THE WAVE PASSES WEDNESDAY…NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS MAY
FILTER SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA.
A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE
THURSDAY AND WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A VERY GOOD
CHANCE OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS…ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
MODELS.
NEAR SURFACE INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK…BUT STRONG WIND PROFILES
AND SPEED OF STORMS…MAY BRING A RISK OF STRONG WINDS AND HAIL
WITH THE STRONGER STORMS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
STRONG…GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AS A PACIFIC FRONT MOVES EAST.
A “SECONDARY FRONT” WILL
USHER IN SOMEWHAT COLDER AIR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND APPEARS DRY WITH NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
A look at January weather on this last day of the month, from Gary McManus of the Oklahoma Climatological Survey
The highest temperature recorded this month was the 79 at Mangum on the 16th and the lowest was 9 degrees at Nowata on the 18th.
Here are the numbers for winter thus far (Dec 2011-Jan 2012).
-****-
Clim Div Avg Temp Departure Rank
Panhandle 35.0 1.0 49th Warmest
North Central 38.8 3.8 13th Warmest
Northeast 40.5 4.1 13th Warmest
West Central 40.5 4.3 10th Warmest
Central 41.6 3.8 12th Warmest
East Central 43.0 4.0 14th Warmest
Southwest 41.7 3.1 21st Warmest
South Central 43.8 3.2 20th Warmest
Southeast 44.6 3.6 13th Warmest
Statewide 41.0 3.4 16th Warmest
-***-
So not the warmest first two months of winter, but it’s nothing to sneeze at either. The only thing that stopped it from moving up the ranks was that massive blizzard in mid-December out in the Panhandle. That snowpack kept that area well below normal for the second half of December and brought the statewide average down a few notches.
Finally, there are still quite a few stations in southeastern Oklahoma that have yet to see a day where the high temperature remains below freezing, and many more that have only seen one day.
Records for Jan. 31 in Oklahoma, according to the Oklahoma Climatological Survey
January 31 in Oklahoma History:
Record Maximum 92 F, at CLOUD CHIEF 2 SE (1911), WEATHERFORD (1911)
Record Minimum -14 F, at BIXBY (1979)
Record Precip 5.34″ at OKEMAH (1923), SHAWNEE (1923)
+Record Snowfall 8.00″ at several places and/or years (Oklahoma History = since roughly 1895)
+ – May include hail or other forms of frozen precipitation
Oklahoma Panhandle, forecast for later this week, from the National Weather Service, Amarillo, Texas
A cold front will sweep across the Panhandles on Friday. Meanwhile, a strong
upper-level low pressure system will continue to slowly move across the region,
bringing a chance for rain and snow. Based on the current storm track,
northern and far eastern portions of the Panhandles will see the better precipitation
chances Friday into Friday night, while dry air invades the rest of the area
from the southwest. However, this storm track is still uncertain, so stay tuned.
At this time, it appears that the Oklahoma Panhandle and northern
Texas Panhandle could see some light snowfall accumulations.
Northwest winds will crank up on Friday as well behind the cold front.
Hazardous weather outlook, from the National Weather Service, Norman
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
TUE JAN 31 2012
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN…WESTERN…
CENTRAL…AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA…AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
.DAY ONE…TODAY AND TONIGHT…
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK…
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION…
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
HOWEVER…INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LIMITED AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED.
PROBABILITY TABLE…
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CST WEDNESDAY FEB 1.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA…5 PERCENT.
OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER…
NONE.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY…
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK…
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER…INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED AND SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER A
LARGER AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE BUT ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER…
WINDY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CREATE AN ELEVATED WILDFIRE POTENTIAL
ON TODAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY.
A look at the week’s forecast, according to the National Weather Service, Norman
Temperatures expected to drop back down closer to average late this week and
into the weekend. There is only a slight chance of light rain across southeast
Oklahoma on Tuesday and Wednesday, with better chances of rain
region-wide towards the end of the week. Any snow that may occur
should be very light and confined to northern parts of
Oklahoma early Saturday.
Hazardous weather outlook from the National Weather Service, Norman Forecast Office
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
MON JAN 30 2012
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1200 PM CST MON JAN 30 2012
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN…WESTERN…
CENTRAL…AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA…AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
.DAY ONE…TODAY AND TONIGHT…
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK…
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
DISCUSSION…
A VERY WARM AND DRY AIRMASS IS PRESENT.
PROBABILITY TABLE…
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CST TUESDAY JAN 31.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA…ZERO PERCENT.
OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER…
WINDY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THE WILDFIRE POTENTIAL
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY…
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK…
NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.
OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER…
WINDY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE WILDFIRE POTENTIAL TUESDAY.
Wildfire Potential in the National Weather Service’s Norman Forecast Office coverage area
Hazardous weather outlook, from the National Weather Service, Norman
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1135 AM CST SUN JAN 29 2012
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1135 AM CST SUN JAN 29 2012
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN…WESTERN…
CENTRAL…AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA…AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
.DAY ONE…THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT…
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK…
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
DISCUSSION…
A MILD AND DRY AIRMASS WILL PREVENT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH
TONIGHT.
PROBABILITY TABLE…
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CST MONDAY JAN 30.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA…ZERO PERCENT.
OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER…
NONE.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY…
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK…
NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.
OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER…
WINDY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE WILDFIRE POTENTIAL ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.
Forecast from the National Weather Service, Norman
Cool today with some high clouds streaming across the area.
Winds will also be light in most locations.
