Snow possible in areas of Oklahoma Panhandle Wednesday night, according to the National Weather Service, Amarillo, Texas Forecast Office
…FIRST DOSE OF WINTER TO IMPACT THE PANHANDLES LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY…
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING…THEN SWING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLES BY SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO
MOVE SOUTH…THE RAIN WILL MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW OVER THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE PANHANDLES…GENERALLY NORTHWEST OF A LINE
FROM GUYMON TO ROMERO. ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG AND WEST OF A HOOKER TO BORGER TO AMARILLO TO CANYON LINE…
WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED TO THE EAST. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL END BY MIDDAY THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA.
THURSDAY MORNING AND FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE THE COLDEST OF THE FALL
SEASON THUS FAR. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES THURSDAY MORNING AND ACROSS
MOST OF THE PANHANDLES ON FRIDAY MORNING.
THERE STILL REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM…WHICH WILL
ULTIMATELY IMPACT PRECIPITATION CHANCES…TYPE…AND AMOUNTS.
Hazardous weather outlook, for the National Weather Service, Norman Forecast Office coverage area
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
432 AM CDT WED OCT 26 2011
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN…WESTERN…
CENTRAL…AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA…AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
.DAY ONE…TODAY AND TONIGHT…
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK…
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION…
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. RELATIVELY MOIST AIR WILL EXIST AHEAD OF THE FRONT… BUT
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY
STRONG. STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON IS UNCERTAIN TO BEGIN
WITH… AND ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW
SEVERE LEVELS.
LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE TONIGHT
AS A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY… WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER POSSIBLE
MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. INSTABILITY WILL BE MINIMAL… AND
SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY.
PROBABILITY TABLE…
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT THURSDAY OCT 27.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA…60 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR…10 PERCENT.
OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER…
NONE.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY…
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK…
AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM PASSES OVER THE REGION… A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY… MAINLY IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER…
AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS DECREASE…SOME AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE A
LIGHT FREEZE OR A FROST IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
Becoming cooler in the National Weather Service, Norman Forecast Office coverage area
Cold front timing for the National Weather Service, Norman Forecast Office coverage area
Hazardous weather outlook, National Weather Service, Norman Forecast Office coverage area
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
433 AM CDT MON OCT 24 2011
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN…WESTERN…
CENTRAL…AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA…AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
.DAY ONE…TODAY AND TONIGHT…
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK…
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
DISCUSSION…
A WARM BUT STABLE AIRMASS WILL PREVENT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH TONIGHT.
PROBABILITY TABLE…
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT TUESDAY OCT 25.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA…LESS THAN 5 PERCENT.
OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER…
FOG WILL AFFECT AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR THIS
MORNING. PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THE FOG IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY
MID-MORNING. DRIVERS NEED TO BE PREPARED FOR SUDDEN REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITIES.
WARM TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
INCREASE THE WILDFIRE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE AREA… ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY…
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK…
A STRONG COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PROGRESS SOUTHWARD ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS FROM TUESDAY
EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE CHANCE OF STORMS WILL BE GREATEST
ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER…
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE ELEVATED AGAIN ON TUESDAY… AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO THE 80S AND LOW 90S WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.
AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES AND SKIES CLEAR…SOME LOW LYING AREAS
MAY EXPERIENCE A LIGHT FREEZE OR A FROST IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
OF THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
Hazardous weather outlook, National Weather Service, Norman
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
FRI OCT 21 2011
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN…WESTERN…
CENTRAL…AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA…AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
.DAY ONE…TODAY AND TONIGHT…
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK…
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION…
THE AIR WILL REMAIN DRY AND STABLE PREVENTING THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.
PROBABILITY TABLE…
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT SATURDAY OCT 21.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA…ZERO PERCENT.
OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER…
NONE.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY…
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK…
ONE WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY. A FEW ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT MAY THEN BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER…
NONE.
Forecast through Thursday, National Weather Service, Norman Forecast Office coverage area
This year is threatening to be Oklahoma’s all-time driest, from Gary McManus, Oklahoma Climatological Survey
There is a lot of information contained in this Ticker, and little of it good.
As has been the case throughout 2011, one part of the state receives a decent rainfall but other areas of Oklahoma spend weeks with little relief. That pattern continued as northeastern Oklahoma missed out on the beneficial rains of two weeks ago. The newest U.S. Drought Monitor map reflects growing concerns over reservoir levels in eastern Oklahoma with an increase in coverage of D3 or “extreme” drought. The coverage of D3-D4 drought increased from 80 percent last week to 87 percent across the state. All of the state is covered by severe-to-exceptional (D2-D4) drought.
6-10 day period, all tools are in remarkable concert, pointing toward
drier than normal conditions. Thus, this is a high confidence forecast.”
The outlooks for November/November-January/December-February are all dominated by the classic La Nina signal, and hold little good news for Oklahoma and the Southern Plains.
The three-month outlooks that blend into spring have similar patterns for both temperature and precipitation. The sea surface temperature models used by the CPC indicate this La Nina could become as strong or even exceed the strength of last winter’s event with three-month anomalies approaching -2 degrees Celsius.
Those were “extreme” extremes, and don’t come around very often (and they were certainly not forecast).
2) Outlooks are not infallible, nor do La Nina impacts always follow the script.
3) A few well-placed precipitation events can keep the current wheat crop going through the worst of what Mother Nature has to offer. If there is one thing Oklahoma agricultural producers know, it’s not always the amount of precipitation that is most important. Timing is everything.
4) No information is contained within these outlooks or forecasts about extreme snow or ice events, although the dry signal would indicate less precipitation of any form. Remember, Oklahoma set its all-time 24-hour snowfall record last February with 27 inches at Spavinaw and the first half of that month was basically one big blizzard. The state’s all-time record low temperature of -31 degrees was reached at Nowata last February 10.
5) Many reservoir levels are very low going into our driest time of the year.
That will become a greater concern should the precipitation deficits continue into the warm months. Water usage bottoms out during the winter months so any precipitation that does fall is very important for recharge. The same goes for soil moisture.
We will continue to monitor the latest from the CPC and other governmental agencies to keep you informed as best as possible. Hopefully there will be better news as we go through the next several months.
Forecast through Wednesday for the National Weather Service, Norman Forecast Office coverage area
Coldest temperatures since midnight, at Oklahoma Mesonet weather network stations
Since midnight low temperatures of 23 degrees have been recorded in northeast Oklahoma at Nowata, Pryor and Tahlequah.
In the Oklahoma City metro, the lowest temeprature has been 30 degrees at El Reno. This marks the second straight day for freezing temperatures at El Reno after a low of 32 degrees on Wednesday.
