Heat advisory, National Weather Service, Norman Forecast Office
URGENT – WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
249 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2011
HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-
MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-
MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-
ARCHER-CLAY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…HOLLIS…MANGUM…HOBART…ALTUS…
FREDERICK…LAWTON…DUNCAN…PAULS VALLEY…SULPHUR…ADA…
COALGATE…WALTERS…WAURIKA…ARDMORE…TISHOMINGO…ATOKA…
MARIETTA…MADILL…DURANT…QUANAH…CHILLICOTHE…CROWELL…
VERNON…WICHITA FALLS…MUNDAY…KNOX CITY…SEYMOUR…
ARCHER CITY…HOLLIDAY…LAKESIDE CITY…HENRIETTA
249 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2011
…HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM CDT MONDAY…
* TEMPERATURE: LOWS 75 TO 80 DEGREES. HIGHS 103 TO 108.
* HEAT INDEX: 103 TO 108 DURING THE AFTERNOON.
* IMPACTS: HEAT STRESS BUILDS ON PEOPLE AND PETS OVER TIME.
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR CONSECUTIVE
MONTHS…AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRINKING WATER AND SEEKING AIR
CONDITIONED ENVIRONMENTS ARE ESSENTIAL STEPS TO STAYING
HEALTHY.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…
TAKE EXTRA PRECAUTIONS IF YOU WORK OR SPEND TIME OUTSIDE. WHEN
POSSIBLE… RESCHEDULE STRENUOUS ACTIVITIES TO EARLY MORNING OR
EVENING. KNOW THE SIGNS AND SYMPTOMS OF HEAT EXHAUSTION AND HEAT
STROKE. WEAR LIGHT WEIGHT AND LOOSE FITTING CLOTHING WHEN
POSSIBLE AND DRINK PLENTY OF WATER.
TO REDUCE RISK DURING OUTDOOR WORK THE OCCUPATIONAL SAFETY AND
HEALTH ADMINISTRATION RECOMMENDS SCHEDULING FREQUENT REST BREAKS
IN SHADED OR AIR CONDITIONED ENVIRONMENTS. ANYONE OVERCOME BY
HEAT SHOULD BE MOVED TO A COOL AND SHADED LOCATION. HEAT STROKE
IS AN EMERGENCY…CALL 9 1 1.
Hurricane Irene, National Hurricane Center, Miami, Florida
HURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 29A…CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
200 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2011
CORRECTED FORWARD SPEED IN THE SUMMARY SECTION
…IRENE MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA…
SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT…1800 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…35.5N 76.3W
ABOUT 45 MI…70 KM WNW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 95 MI…155 KM S OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…85 MPH…140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 13 MPH…20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…950 MB…28.05 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…
ENVIRONMENT CANADA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM THE
UNITED STATES BORDER NORTHEASTWARD TO FORT LAWRENCE INCLUDING GRAND
MANAN…AND FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM FORT LAWRENCE
TO PORTERS LAKE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* LITTLE RIVER INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO SAGAMORE BEACH
MASSACHUSETTS…INCLUDING THE PAMLICO…ALBEMARLE…AND CURRITUCK
SOUNDS…DELAWARE BAY…CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF DRUM POINT…NEW
YORK CITY…LONG ISLAND…LONG ISLAND SOUND…COASTAL CONNECTICUT
AND RHODE ISLAND…BLOCK ISLAND…MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT NORTHWARD AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC
* NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH TO EASTPORT MAINE
* UNITED STATES/CANADA BORDER NORTHEASTWARD TO FORT LAWRENCE
INCLUDING GRAND MANAN
* SOUTH COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM FORT LAWRENCE TO PORTERS LAKE
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN EASTERN CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
IRENE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES…INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 200 PM EDT…1800 UTC…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.5 NORTH…LONGITUDE 76.3 WEST. IRENE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH…20 KM/H. A
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK…THE
CENTER OF IRENE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON
SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 85 MPH…140 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLIGHT WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS IRENE CROSSES EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA…BUT IRENE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN AT OR NEAR HURRICANE
STRENGTH AS IT MOVES NEAR OR OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND
APPROACHES NEW ENGLAND.
IRENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES…150 KM…FROM THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL-
STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260 MILES…415 KM. A WIND
GUST TO 78 MPH WAS RECENTLY MEASURED AT CAPE HATTERAS NORTH
CAROLINA. A WIND GUST TO 67 MPH WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AT LANGLEY
AIR FORCE BASE IN SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA.
THE LATEST MINIMUM PRESSURE REPORTED FROM A DROPSONDE RELEASED BY AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 950 MB…28.05
INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND…TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST TODAY WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY
TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS EVENING WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY
SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS AFFECTING THE UPPER FLOORS OF HIGH-RISE
BUILDINGS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THOSE NEAR
GROUND-LEVEL.
STORM SURGE…AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM TIDE WILL RAISE WATER
LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 5 TO 9 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL IN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN NORTH CAROLINA…INCLUDING THE ALBEMARLE
AND PAMLICO SOUNDS. STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH
AS 4 TO 8 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA
FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER NORTHWARD TO CAPE COD
INCLUDING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND ITS
TRIBUTARIES. NEAR THE COAST…THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE…DESTRUCTIVE…AND LIFE-THREATENING WAVES. HIGHER THAN
NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE OCCURRING THIS WEEKEND. COASTAL AND
RIVER FLOODING WILL BE HIGHEST IN AREAS WHERE THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS
AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. STORM TIDE AND SURGE VALUES ARE VERY
LOCATION-SPECIFIC…AND USERS ARE URGED TO CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES.
RAINFALL…IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
6 TO 12 INCHES…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 18 INCHES…FROM
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
INTO EASTERN NEW YORK AND INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. THESE RAINS…
COMBINED WITH HEAVY RAINS OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS…COULD CAUSE
WIDESPREAD FLOODING…LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS…AND
SIGNIFICANT UPROOTING OF TREES DUE TO RAIN-SOFTENED GROUNDS.
SURF…LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IRENE ARE AFFECTING MUCH OF THE
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
TORNADOES…ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN
VIRGINIA…EASTERN MARYLAND…DELAWARE…AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY
THROUGH THIS EVENING.
Hazardous weather outlook, National Weather Service, Norman
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1145 AM CDT SAT AUG 27 2011
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN…WESTERN…
CENTRAL…AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA…AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
.DAY ONE…THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT…
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK…
NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
DISCUSSION…
DESPITE AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE… THE LOW LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE OVER OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS REMAIN DRY AND RELATIVELY
STABLE. THEREFORE THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW.
PROBABILITY TABLE…
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT SUNDAY AUG 28.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA…10 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR…10 PERCENT.
OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER…
A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
SECTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS… AND FIRE DANGER REMAINS HIGH.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY…
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK…
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY… MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER…
THE HEAT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO THE
HOT TEMPERATURES. THE HEAT COMBINED WITH THE LONG TERM DROUGHT WILL
KEEP THE WILDFIRE POTENTIAL HIGH OR VERY HIGH.
Heat advisory, National Weather Service, Norman Forecast Office
HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-
MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-
MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-
ARCHER-CLAY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…HOLLIS…MANGUM…HOBART…ALTUS…
FREDERICK…LAWTON…DUNCAN…PAULS VALLEY…SULPHUR…ADA…
COALGATE…WALTERS…WAURIKA…ARDMORE…TISHOMINGO…ATOKA…
MARIETTA…MADILL…DURANT…QUANAH…CHILLICOTHE…CROWELL…
VERNON…WICHITA FALLS…MUNDAY…KNOX CITY…SEYMOUR…
ARCHER CITY…HOLLIDAY…LAKESIDE CITY…HENRIETTA
…HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM CDT MONDAY…
* HEAT INDEX: 102 TO 108 DURING THE AFTERNOON.
* IMPACTS: HEAT STRESS BUILDS ON PEOPLE AND PETS OVER TIME.
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR CONSECUTIVE
MONTHS…AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRINKING WATER AND SEEKING AIR
CONDITIONED ENVIRONMENTS ARE ESSENTIAL STEPS TO STAYING
HEALTHY.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…
TAKE EXTRA PRECAUTIONS IF YOU WORK OR SPEND TIME OUTSIDE. WHEN
POSSIBLE… RESCHEDULE STRENUOUS ACTIVITIES TO EARLY MORNING OR
EVENING. KNOW THE SIGNS AND SYMPTOMS OF HEAT EXHAUSTION AND HEAT
STROKE. WEAR LIGHT WEIGHT AND LOOSE FITTING CLOTHING WHEN
POSSIBLE AND DRINK PLENTY OF WATER.
TO REDUCE RISK DURING OUTDOOR WORK THE OCCUPATIONAL SAFETY AND
HEALTH ADMINISTRATION RECOMMENDS SCHEDULING FREQUENT REST BREAKS
IN SHADED OR AIR CONDITIONED ENVIRONMENTS. ANYONE OVERCOME BY
HEAT SHOULD BE MOVED TO A COOL AND SHADED LOCATION. HEAT STROKE
IS AN EMERGENCY…CALL 9 1 1.
FYI: Hurricane Irene, from the National Hurricane Center, Miami, Fla.
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 27B
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
300 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2011
…CENTER OF IRENE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS…
SUMMARY OF 300 AM EDT…0700 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…33.7N 76.5W
ABOUT 60 MI…100 KM S OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 120 MI…190 KM SSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…90 MPH…150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 14 MPH…22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…952 MB…28.11 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* LITTLE RIVER INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO SAGAMORE BEACH
MASSACHUSETTS…INCLUDING THE PAMLICO…ALBEMARLE…AND CURRITUCK
SOUNDS…DELAWARE BAY…CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF DRUM POINT…NEW
YORK CITY…LONG ISLAND…LONG ISLAND SOUND…COASTAL CONNECTICUT
AND RHODE ISLAND…BLOCK ISLAND…MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO LITTLE RIVER INLET
* CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT NORTHWARD AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC
* NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH TO MERRIMACK RIVER
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* MERRIMACK RIVER TO EASTPORT MAINE
INTERESTS IN SOUTHEASTERN CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
IRENE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES…INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 300 AM EDT…0700 UTC…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS
LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AND NOAA
DOPPLER RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 33.7 NORTH…LONGITUDE 76.5 WEST.
IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH…22 KM/H…
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK…THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL APPROACH THE COAST
OF NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND PASS NEAR OR
OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST LATER THIS MORNING. THE HURRICANE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND
MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY.
DATA FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH…150 KM/H…WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
EXPECTED BEFORE IRENE REACHES THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA…AND
IRENE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR THE THRESHOLD OF CATEGORY ONE AND
CATEGORY TWO STRENGTH. SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER IRENE
REACHES THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA…BUT IRENE IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON
SUNDAY.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES…150 KM…FROM
THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
290 MILES…465 KM. A NOAA C-MAN STATION AT CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH
CAROLINA RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 54 MPH…87 KM/H…
AND A WIND GUST OF 64 MPH…104 KM/H. A WEATHERFLOW STATION IN FORT
MACON NORTH CAROLINA RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 74 MPH…120
KM/H.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 952 MB…28.11 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND…TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INLAND
OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA TODAY.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER THIS
MORNING WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.
STORM SURGE…AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM TIDE WILL RAISE WATER
LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 6 TO 11 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL IN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN NORTH CAROLINA…INCLUDING THE ALBEMARLE
AND PAMLICO SOUNDS. STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH
AS 4 TO 8 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA
FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER NORTHWARD TO CAPE COD
INCLUDING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND ITS
TRIBUTARIES. NEAR THE COAST…THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE…DESTRUCTIVE…AND LIFE-THREATENING WAVES. STORM SURGE
VALUES ARE VERY LOCATION-SPECIFIC…AND USERS ARE URGED TO CONSULT
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES.
RAINFALL…IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
6 TO 10 INCHES…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES…FROM
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES…
NEW YORK…AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS.
SURF…LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IRENE ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
TORNADOES…ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA TODAY. A POSSIBLE TORNADO WAS RECENTLY REPORTED IN
TYRRELL COUNTY NORTH CAROLINA.
FYI: Hurrican Irene, from the National Hurricane Center, Miami, Fla.
HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
500 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2011
THE AIRCRAFT DID NOT FIND ANY HIGHER WINDS AFTER THE RELEASE OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY. IN FACT…DATA FROM NEAR THE CONCLUSION OF THE
FLIGHT SUPPORT A SLIGHT LOWER INITIAL INTENSITY. THE AIRCRAFT DID
REPORT HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS AT FLIGHT LEVEL AND SFMR WINDS OF
50-55 KT 135 N MI EAST OF THE CENTER…SHOWING THE LARGE SIZE OF
THE WIND FIELD. BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND DATA FROM AN EARLIER ASCAT
PASS SHOW THAT THE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD ABOUT
225-250 N MI OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. RECENT MICROWAVE DATA AND
OBSERVATIONS FROM THE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE INNER CORE HAS
ERODED. ALTHOUGH IRENE WILL BE MOVING OVER WARM WATER DURING THE
NEXT 12-18 HOURS…THE LACK OF AN INNER CORE WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE
ANY RESTRENGTHENING. ALTHOUGH NOT SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST…IRENE COULD WEAKEN JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE
REACHING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER…IMPACTS FROM THIS LARGE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL NOT BE VERY DIFFERENT IF IT IS A STRONG
TROPICAL STORM OR LOW-END HURRICANE. IRENE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS…STORM SURGE FLOODING…AND EXTREMELY HEAVY
RAINS ALMOST ANYWHERE FROM EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD THROUGH
NEW ENGLAND.
IRENE IS STILL MOVING NORTHWARD OR 360/12 KT. IRENE IS EXPECTED TO
TURN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT AND CONTINUE ON THAT HEADING UP
THE EAST COAST…AND BE MOVING AT ABOUT 15-17 KT AS IT APPROACHES
LONG ISLAND…MUCH SLOWER THAN NORMAL FOR STORMS IN THIS
AREA…WHICH WILL PRODUCE EXTENDED PERIODS OF TROPICAL STORM AND
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS IN MANY AREAS. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY
CONSISTENT ON THE FUTURE TRACK OF IRENE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
CYCLES. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND LIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/2100Z 31.7N 77.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 27/0600Z 33.4N 77.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 27/1800Z 35.5N 76.3W 75 KT 85 MPH…INLAND
36H 28/0600Z 38.2N 75.0W 70 KT 80 MPH…OVER WATER
48H 28/1800Z 41.8N 73.0W 60 KT 70 MPH…INLAND
72H 29/1800Z 50.5N 65.0W 45 KT 50 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 30/1800Z 56.5N 51.0W 40 KT 45 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 31/1800Z 58.0N 32.0W 35 KT 40 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
NOAA and University of Oklahoma researches deploy radars to intercept Hurricane Irene
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration(NOAA) and University of Oklahoma researchers are in North Carolina to deploy two mobile radars and a state-of-the-art instrumented vehicle to intercept Hurricane Irene. They are joining research teams from across the United States to collect an unprecedented hurricane dataset to better understand these devastating storms and protect lives and property. The team includes researchers from the NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory, the University of Oklahoma (OU), and the NOAA Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies at OU.
———————————————-
Irene to be test for experimental flood forecast system:
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Severe Storms Laboratory researchers will test a total water level prediction system in North Carolina as Hurricane Irene approaches. The Coastal and Inland Flooding Observation and Warning (CI-FLOW) system captures the complex interaction between waves, tides, river flows, and storm surge to produce total water level simulations that will improve forecasts for inland and coastal flooding events to help users react, respond, and recover.
Drought information, from the National Weather Service, Norman
DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
225 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2011
…EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONTINUES ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND THE
WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF OKLAHOMA…RIVALING OTHER HISTORIC DROUGHT
PERIODS.
…EXTREME TO SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
AND NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA…
SYNOPSIS…
ACCORDING TO THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR…DATED AUGUST 23 …
EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONTINUED ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND IN
OKLAHOMA…GENERALLY WEST OF DURANT…HOLDENVILLE….STILLWATER AND
BLACKWELL. IN ALL…EXCEPTIONAL AND EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS
COVERED ALL OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND MORE THAN EIGHTY-FIVE PERCENT
OF THE STATE OF OKLAHOMA. A GRAPHICAL DEPICTION OF DROUGHT
CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND ONLINE AT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORMAN HOMEPAGE AND THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) DROUGHT
MONITOR PAGE.
THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR USES FIVE CATEGORIES…LABELED D0-D4. FOR
COMPARISON…IN AUGUST OF 2006…EXCEPTIONAL D4 DROUGHT COVERED ALL
OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. THE CURRENT
DROUGHT SURPASSES THE 2006 DROUGHT FOR AREA COVERED BY BOTH THE D3
AND D4 CATEGORIES.
DROUGHT LEVELS…
D0 — ABNORMALLY DRY OR RECOVERING FROM DROUGHT
D1 — MODERATE DROUGHT
D2 — SEVERE DROUGHT
D3 — EXTREME DROUGHT
D4 — EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT
CLIMATE SUMMARY…
IN GENERAL….THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF OKLAHOMA RECEIVED 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAINFALL DURING THE PAST 30 DAYS WITH SCATTERED 3 TO 4
INCH AMOUNTS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN ONE-THIRD OF OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT AREAS OF
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS RECEIVED LESS THAN 1 INCH OF RAINFALL DURING THE
SAME PERIOD. THE RAIN AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER ALSO BROUGHT SOME
RELIEF FROM THE RELENTLESS HEAT…ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE OKLAHOMA.
THE TABLE BELOW INDICATES THE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION SINCE OCTOBER
1ST, 2010 FOR SEVERAL CLIMATE DIVISIONS IN OKLAHOMA. WICHITA FALLS
PRECIPITATION IS INCLUDED TO ILLUSTRATE HOW DRY PARTS OF WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS HAVE BEEN DURING THE LAST 11 MONTHS.
CLIMATE TOTAL DEPARTURE RANK SINCE
DIVISION PRECIPITATION FROM NORMAL 1921
——– ——– ———– ———-
N.CENTRAL 14.73″ -13.20″ 3RD DRIEST
W.CENTRAL 11.60″ -13.93″ 1ST DRIEST
CENTRAL 17.61″ -15.76″ 2ND DRIEST
SOUTHWEST 11.05″ -15.84″ 1ST DRIEST
S.CENTRAL 17.31″ -18.82″ 2ND DRIEST
STATEWIDE 18.68″ -13.67″ 3RD DRIEST
WICHITA FALLS 5.80″ -19.82″ 1ST DRIEST
PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK…
THE 6 TO 10 DAY AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION
CENTER FORECAST A GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF TEMPERATURE BEING ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THESE SAME OUTLOOKS PREDICT A
GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIPITATION BEING BELOW NORMAL. ALSO FROM
THE CPC…OUTLOOKS FOR ONE AND THREE MONTHS INTO THE FUTURE PLACE A
GREATER LIKELIHOOD ON TEMPERATURE BEING ABOVE NORMAL. THE ONE MONTH
OUTLOOK CALLS FOR EQUAL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION BEING BELOW
NORMAL…NEAR NORMAL…OR ABOVE NORMAL. THE THREE MONTH
OUTLOOK ALSO CALLS FOR A GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIPITATION BEING
BELOW NORMAL IN THE EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT AREAS.
SUMMARY OF IMPACTS…
WILDFIRES…
THE EXCEPTIONALLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL MAKE MUCH OF THE AREA MORE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO FIRES. AS THE END OF SUMMER APPROACHES…WIND SPEEDS
WILL TYPICALLY INCREASE…AND THERE WILL BE MORE WIND SHIFTS
ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGES. THEREFORE…THE WILDFIRE POTENTIAL
WILL LIKELY INCREASE GOING INTO THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER.
WATER…
SOME MUNICIPALITIES HAD BEGUN TO RESTRICT WATER USE. THERE WERE ALSO
REPORTS FROM WESTERN NORTH TEXAS OF DRY SOIL CONTRIBUTING TO CRACKED
WATER PIPES AND LOW WATER PRESSURE.
HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK…
MOST RIVERS AND CREEKS IN THE REGION ARE FLOWING AT RATES THAT ARE
BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MOST RIVERS ARE EXHIBITING
7-DAY STREAM FLOW AVERAGES THAT ARE IN THE 10 TO 24 PERCENT (BELOW
NORMAL) RANGE OR LESS THAN 10 PERCENT (WELL BELOW NORMAL) RANGE.
ONLY A FEW SCATTERED LOCATIONS IN CENTRAL/WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS HAVE NEAR AVERAGE STREAMFLOWS FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR. INFORMATION FROM THE U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY INDICATES THAT
A SEVERE HYDROLOGIC DROUGHT IS TAKING PLACE IN THE RED RIVER BASIN
IN SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA…AND THE WICHITA RIVER BASIN IN WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS. A MODERATE HYDROLOGIC DROUGHT IS OCCURRING IN PARTS OF
THE UPPER RED RIVER BASIN IN SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA…THE CIMARRON
RIVER BASIN IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA…AND THE BRAZOS RIVER BASIN IN
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
RESERVOIR CONDITIONS AS OF AUGUST 25TH…
LEVELS AT MOST RESERVOIRS IN THE ARKANSAS AND RED RIVER DRAINAGE
AREAS ARE BELOW NORMAL DUE TO THE PROLONGED DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
RESERVOIRS RANGE FROM ABOUT 1 TO 27 FEET BELOW THEIR NORMAL
POOLS…OR ABOUT 5 TO 82 PERCENT BELOW THEIR NORMAL STORAGE
CAPACITIES. BELOW IS A LIST OF RESERVOIRS WITH THE LATEST ELEVATIONS
AND NORMAL POOLS.
———————————————————————
TOP OF POOL
RESERVOIR NORMAL ELEV.
POOL
(FT MSL) (FT MSL)
———————————————————————
*** ARKANSAS RIVER BASIN ***
GREAT SALT PLAINS LAKE 1125.0 1123.36
* KAW LAKE 1009.0 1008.61
FORT SUPPLY LAKE 2004.0 2004.32
LAKE HEFNER 1199.0 1189.30
CANTON LAKE 1615.4 1609.95
LAKE OVERHOLSER 1242.0 1232.75
ARCADIA LAKE 1006.0 1004.10
*** RED RIVER BASIN ***
ALTUS LAKE 1559.0 1532.07
TOM STEED LAKE 1411.0 1404.82
LAKE KEMP 1144.0 1129.70
LAKE KICKAPOO 1045.0 1037.33
LAKE ARROWHEAD 926.4 918.11
WAURIKA LAKE 951.4 947.56
FOSS LAKE 1642.0 1637.56
FORT COBB LAKE 1342.0 1339.12
ARBUCKLE LAKE 872.0 867.22
LAKE TEXOMA 615.0 611.48
ATOKA LAKE 590.0 584.26
MCGEE CREEK LAKE 577.1 575.06
*** BRAZOS RIVER BASIN ***
MILLERS CREEK RSVR. 1334.5 1324.73
———————————————————————
RESTRICTIONS…
IN OKLAHOMA…A GOVERNOR DECLARED BURN BAN IS IN EFFECT FOR 61
COUNTIES. FOUR OTHER COUNTIES HAVE DECLARED COUNTY BURN BANS.
IN WESTERN NORTH TEXAS…ARCHER…CLAY… BAYLOR…FOARD…
KNOX…WICHITA…WILBARGER AND HARDEMAN COUNTIES HAD OUTDOOR BURN
BANS.
Heat advisory, from the National Weather Service, Norman
HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-
MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-
MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-
ARCHER-CLAY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…HOLLIS…MANGUM…HOBART…ALTUS…
FREDERICK…LAWTON…DUNCAN…PAULS VALLEY…SULPHUR…ADA…
COALGATE…WALTERS…WAURIKA…ARDMORE…TISHOMINGO…ATOKA…
MARIETTA…MADILL…DURANT…QUANAH…CHILLICOTHE…CROWELL…
VERNON…WICHITA FALLS…MUNDAY…KNOX CITY…SEYMOUR…
ARCHER CITY…HOLLIDAY…LAKESIDE CITY…HENRIETTA
339 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2011
…HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM CDT MONDAY…
* TEMPERATURE: LOWS 75 TO 80 DEGREES. HIGHS 103 TO 108.
* HEAT INDEX: 102 TO 109 DURING THE AFTERNOON.
* IMPACTS: HEAT STRESS BUILDS ON PEOPLE AND PETS OVER TIME.
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR CONSECUTIVE
MONTHS…AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRINKING WATER AND SEEKING AIR
CONDITIONED ENVIRONMENTS ARE ESSENTIAL STEPS TO STAYING
HEALTHY.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…
TAKE EXTRA PRECAUTIONS IF YOU WORK OR SPEND TIME OUTSIDE. WHEN
POSSIBLE… RESCHEDULE STRENUOUS ACTIVITIES TO EARLY MORNING OR
EVENING. KNOW THE SIGNS AND SYMPTOMS OF HEAT EXHAUSTION AND HEAT
STROKE. WEAR LIGHT WEIGHT AND LOOSE FITTING CLOTHING WHEN
POSSIBLE AND DRINK PLENTY OF WATER.
TO REDUCE RISK DURING OUTDOOR WORK THE OCCUPATIONAL SAFETY AND
HEALTH ADMINISTRATION RECOMMENDS SCHEDULING FREQUENT REST BREAKS
IN SHADED OR AIR CONDITIONED ENVIRONMENTS. ANYONE OVERCOME BY
HEAT SHOULD BE MOVED TO A COOL AND SHADED LOCATION. HEAT STROKE
IS AN EMERGENCY…CALL 9 1 1.
