Will it be Oklahoma or Texas breaking the record for the hottest summer in the U.S., by Gary McManus, Oklahoma Climatological Survey
I’ve been talkign about Oklahoma’s chances to beat the all-time summer (climatological summer runs from June 1-August 31) heat record for the entire United States. Here’s that top-10 list again for the highest statewide average summer temperatures since records began in 1895. We already hold the top three spots.
State Year Avg. Temp
Oklahoma 1934 85.2
Oklahoma 1936 84.4
Oklahoma 1980 84.3
Louisiana 1998 84.3
Texas 1980 84.3
Texas 1998 84.3
Oklahoma 1954 84.2
Texas 1934 84.2
Louisiana 2010 84.1
Arkansas 1934 83.5
Texas 1918 83.5
According to Oklahoma Mesonet data, our statewide average temperature through August 28 is 86.7 degrees. So yes, we will break the record. It is inevitable.
Okay, now here’s the deal. From my calculations of preliminary data, Texas is also in line to break that same record. The big question is …
will they top our record-breaking summer temperature?
By my calculations, they very well could. By my very very preliminary calculations, Texas’ statewide average through Sunday was 87 degrees. August is the kicker.
June July August Prelim. Summer Average
Oklahoma 83.5 89.1 87.5 86.7
Texas 85.2 87.1 88.6 87.0
Remember once again, the August numbers are still very preliminary, but one thing is very certain … both states are going to top the previous record for hottest summer since 1895.
Hazardous weather outlook, National Weather Service, Norman
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1125 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2011
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN…WESTERN…
CENTRAL…AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA…AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
.DAY ONE…THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT…
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK…
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION…
A COLD FRONT OVER KANSAS AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA WILL ADVANCE SLOWLY
SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL MERGE WITH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
THAT WILL MOVE NORTHWEST THE SAME AREA. IN ADDITION…AN UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BE OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA.
THIS COMBINATION OF SYSTEMS WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA.
ELSEWHERE IN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS…INTENSE AFTERNOON HEATING
WILL AGAIN RESULT IN THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH DRY CONDITIONS IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE…ANY SIGNIFICANT SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING GUSTY OR POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL PERSIST TONIGHT BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE WITH TIME.
PROBABILITY TABLE…
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT TUESDAY AUG 30.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA…60 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR…40 PERCENT.
OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER…
A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. FIRE DANGER ALSO REMAINS HIGH.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY…
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK…
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
ON TUESDAY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER…
THE HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. FIRE DANGER WILL
REMAIN HIGH TO VERY HIGH THROUGH FRIDAY… ESPECIALLY WITH DRY AND
WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR TUESDAY.
10:40 p.m., Altus temperature still at 101 degrees, Oklahoma Mesonet
FYI: From the National Weather Service, New York, New York, rainfall and wind gust
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER REPORTS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1003 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2011
THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS TAKEN DURING HURRICANE
IRENE. APPRECIATION IS EXTENDED TO HIGHWAY DEPARTMENTS…COOPERATIVE
OBSERVERS…SKYWARN SPOTTERS AND MEDIA FOR THESE REPORTS. THIS
SUMMARY IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR HOME PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/NYC
********************STORM TOTAL RAINFALL********************
LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS
RAINFALL OF
/INCHES/ MEASUREMENT
CONNECTICUT
…FAIRFIELD COUNTY…
MONROE 7.40 612 AM 8/28 SKYWARN SPOTTER
DANBURY AIRPORT 6.34 900 AM 8/28 ASOS
BRIDGEPORT AIRPORT 3.25 900 AM 8/28 ASOS
STAMFORD 2.92 900 AM 8/28 MESONET
BRIDGEPORT 2.87 800 AM 8/28 NWS CO-OP
TRUMBULL 0.90 1219 AM 8/28 PUBLIC
…NEW HAVEN COUNTY…
MERIDEN 4.18 900 AM 8/28 ASOS
OXFORD 3.19 900 AM 8/28 MESONET
WALLINGFORD 3.18 900 AM 8/28 MESONET
EAST HAVEN 2.56 900 AM 8/28 MESONET
NEW HAVEN 2.15 559 AM 8/28 ASOS
NORTH BRANFORD 1.30 900 AM 8/28 MESONET
…NEW LONDON COUNTY…
COLCHESTER 1.72 900 AM 8/28 MESONET
GROTON 1.62 900 AM 8/28 ASOS
YANTIC 1.20 900 AM 8/28 MESONET
GALES FERRY 0.97 618 AM 8/28 SKYWARN SPOTTER
NEW JERSEY
…BERGEN COUNTY…
WOODCLIFF LAKE 7.21 900 AM 8/28 MESONET
LODI 7.08 900 AM 8/28 MESONET
PARK RIDGE 6.45 900 AM 8/28 MESONET
OAKLAND 5.74 900 AM 8/28 MESONET
RIVERVALE 5.60 600 AM 8/28 PUBLIC
TETERBORO 4.27 230 AM 8/28 ASOS
RIDGEWOOD 1.75 1200 AM 8/28 SKYWARN SPOTTER
…ESSEX COUNTY…
ORANGE 9.72 900 AM 8/28 MESONET
NEWARK AIRPORT 8.73 900 AM 8/28 ASOS
MAPLEWOOD 8.64 900 AM 8/28 MESONET
CALDWELL AIRPORT 8.34 900 AM 8/28 ASOS
ESSEX FELLS 6.97 900 AM 8/28 MESONET
BLOOMFIELD 6.00 445 AM 8/28 SKYWARN SPOTTER
…HUDSON COUNTY…
HARRISON 7.63 900 AM 8/28 COOP
KEARNY 4.10 1230 AM 8/28 PUBLIC
…PASSAIC COUNTY…
WAYNE 8.88 942 AM 8/28 MESONET
WEST PATERSON 7.98 900 AM 8/28 MESONET
LITTLE FALLS 7.43 900 AM 8/28 MESONET
RINGWOOD 7.02 900 AM 8/28 MESONET
WEST MILFORD 6.38 900 AM 8/28 MESONET
HAWTHORNE 5.75 626 AM 8/28 SKYWARN SPOTTER
CLIFTON 1.10 900 PM 8/27 SKYWARN SPOTTER
…UNION COUNTY…
MOUNTAINSIDE 8.40 900 AM 8/28 MESONET
NEW YORK
…KINGS COUNTY…
GRAVESEND 6.78 930 AM 8/28 NWS CO-OP
SHEEPSHEAD BAY 5.00 530 AM 8/28 SKYWARN SPOTTER
…KINGS (BROOKLYN) COUNTY…
SHEEPSHEAD BAY 3.00 1230 AM 8/28 SKYWARN SPOTTER
…NASSAU COUNTY…
PLAINVIEW 4.80 754 AM 8/28 SKYWARN SPOTTER
NORTH MASSAPEQUA 3.26 1130 PM 8/27 PUBLIC
MUTTONTOWN 1.96 100 AM 8/28 SKYWARN SPOTTER
…NEW YORK COUNTY…
CENTRAL PARK 6.71 900 AM 8/28 ASOS
…ORANGE COUNTY…
HARRIMAN 5.85 515 AM 8/28 SKYWARN SPOTTER
MONTGOMERY 5.15 900 AM 8/28 ASOS
NEW WINDSOR 4.90 815 AM 8/28 PUBLIC
NEWBURGH 4.85 745 AM 8/28 PUBLIC
PORT JERVIS 4.00 630 AM 8/28 SKYWARN SPOTTER
…QUEENS COUNTY…
NYC/LA GUARDIA 5.37 900 AM 8/28 ASOS
1 W NYC/JFK AIRPORT 4.96 900 AM 8/28 ASOS
NYC/JFK AIRPORT 4.58 613 AM 8/28 ASOS
HOWARD BEACH 4.10 230 AM 8/28 SKYWARN SPOTTER
…ROCKLAND COUNTY…
NANUET 6.55 900 AM 8/28 MESONET
…SUFFOLK COUNTY…
NORTHPORT 6.78 900 AM 8/28 MESONET
FIRE ISLAND 3.95 900 AM 8/28 MESONET
EAST FARMINGDALE 3.89 900 AM 8/28 ASOS
ISLIP AIRPORT 2.93 900 AM 8/28 ASOS
RIVERHEAD 2.04 900 AM 8/28 MESONET
NORTH BABYLON 2.03 224 AM 8/28 PUBLIC
GREENPORT 1.73 900 AM 8/28 ASOS
BRIDGEHAMPTON 1.36 800 AM 8/28 NWS CO-OP
MONTAUK POINT 1.21 900 AM 8/28 ASOS
SAG HARBOR 1.19 900 AM 8/28 MESONET
SHIRLEY AIRPORT 1.15 605 AM 8/28 ASOS
1 N WESTHAMPTON BEAC 1.07 900 AM 8/28 ASOS
MONTAUK 0.55 618 AM 8/28 ASOS
ORIENT 0.38 1047 PM 8/27
…WESTCHESTER COUNTY…
WHITE PLAINS 5.97 900 AM 8/28 ASOS
OSSINING 4.25 310 AM 8/28 SKYWARN SPOTTER
YONKERS 1.00 848 PM 8/27 SKYWARN SPOTTER
***********************PEAK WIND GUST***********************
LOCATION MAX WIND TIME/DATE COMMENTS
GUST OF
MPH MEASUREMENT
CONNECTICUT
…FAIRFIELD COUNTY…
BRIDGEPORT AIRPORT 63 500 AM 8/28 ASOS
DANBURY AIRPORT 40 529 AM 8/28 ASOS
…NEW HAVEN COUNTY…
NEW HAVEN 58 520 AM 8/28 ASOS
WEST HAVEN 57 430 AM 8/28
…NEW LONDON COUNTY…
GROTON 52 546 AM 8/28 ASOS
NEW JERSEY
…ESSEX COUNTY…
NEWARK AIRPORT 53 407 AM 8/28 ASOS
CALDWELL AIRPORT 40 459 AM 8/28 ASOS
…HUDSON COUNTY…
BAYONNE 52 430 AM 8/28 MESONET
…UNION COUNTY…
PERTH AMBOY JUNCTION 67 1255 AM 8/28 MESONET
NEW YORK
…NASSAU COUNTY…
BAYVILLE 67 427 AM 8/28 MESONET
1 E POINT LOOKOUT 64 355 AM 8/28 JONES BEACH COAST GUARD
NORTH MASSAPEQUA 46 1130 PM 8/27 PUBLIC
MUTTONTOWN 42 148 AM 8/28 SKYWARN SPOTTER
…NEW YORK COUNTY…
CENTRAL PARK 60 358 AM 8/28 ASOS
…ORANGE COUNTY…
MONTGOMERY 46 514 AM 8/28 ASOS
…QUEENS COUNTY…
NYC/LA GUARDIA 67 410 AM 8/28 ASOS
BREEZY POINT 59 345 AM 8/28 MESONET
NYC/JFK AIRPORT 59 133 AM 8/28 ASOS
…SUFFOLK COUNTY…
SAYVILLE 91 702 AM 8/28 MESONET
EAST MORICHES 71 620 AM 8/28 MESONET
BRIDGEHAMPTON 65 700 AM 8/28 NWS CO-OP
ISLIP AIRPORT 62 448 AM 8/28 ASOS
EAST FARMINGDALE 61 409 AM 8/28 ASOS
NORTH BABYLON 60 1240 AM 8/28
FISHERS ISLAND 59 550 AM 8/28 MESONET
BLUE POINT 55 422 AM 8/28 MESONET
FIRE ISLAND 54 115 AM 8/28 FIRE ISLAND COAST GUARD
1 SW AMITY HARBOR 53 131 AM 8/28 GREAT SOUTH BAY MESONET
MECOX 43 255 AM 8/28 MESONET
SHIRLEY AIRPORT 41 551 AM 8/28 ASOS
1 N WESTHAMPTON BEAC 37 105 AM 8/28 ASOS
MONTAUK 36 556 AM 8/28 ASOS
ORIENT 28 1047 PM 8/27 SKYWARN SPOTTER
…WESTCHESTER COUNTY…
WHITE PLAINS 32 1222 AM 8/28 ASOS
FYI: Tropical Storm Irene, from the National Hurricane Center, Miami, Florida
TROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 33
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
1100 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2011
SURFACE AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF IRENE IS MOVING
JUST TO THE WEST OF CONNECTICUT. THE FORWARD MOTION HAS ACCELERATED
TO NEAR 020/23…AND SOME ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED AS THE STORM MOVES ON THE EAST SIDE OF A BROAD
MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO…BUT SLIGHTLY WEST OF…THE PREVIOUS TRACK.
SURFACE SYNOPTIC DATA SUGGEST THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE DECREASED
TO 50 KT. CONTINUED GRADUAL WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES OVER LAND TODAY. IN 12 HOURS…GLOBAL MODELS SHOW IRENE
BECOMING EMBEDDED WITHIN A BAROCLINIC ZONE SO THE FORECAST SHOWS
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY THAT TIME.
SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER HIGH-RISE
STRUCTURES AND AREAS OF ELEVATED TERRAIN.
Hazardous weather outlook, National Weather Service, Norman
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
500 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2011
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN…WESTERN…
CENTRAL…AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA…AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
.DAY ONE…TODAY AND TONIGHT…
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK…
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER…
A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS… AND FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN HIGH.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY…
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK…
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY… WITH AT
LEAST A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPANDING SOUTH INTO PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS ON MONDAY NIGHT. NO THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY… THEN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA BEGINNING
FRIDAY.
OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER…
HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK AND FIRE DANGER
WILL REMAIN HIGH TO VERY HIGH THIS WEEK.
FYI: Hurricane Irene information, from National Hurricane Center, Miami
HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
1100 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2011
…IRENE DRENCHING THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WITH HEAVY RAINS AS IT
SKIRTS THE DELMARVA PENINSULA…
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT…0300 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…37.3N 75.4W
ABOUT 70 MI…115 KM SSW OF OCEAN CITY MARYLAND
ABOUT 255 MI…415 KM SSW OF NEW YORK CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…80 MPH…130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 16 MPH…26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…954 MB…28.17 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO SAGAMORE BEACH
MASSACHUSETTS…INCLUDING THE PAMLICO…ALBEMARLE…AND CURRITUCK
SOUNDS…DELAWARE BAY…CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF DRUM POINT…NEW
YORK CITY…LONG ISLAND…LONG ISLAND SOUND…COASTAL CONNECTICUT
AND RHODE ISLAND…BLOCK ISLAND…MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT NORTHWARD AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC
* NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH TO EASTPORT MAINE
* UNITED STATES/CANADA BORDER NORTHEASTWARD TO FORT LAWRENCE
INCLUDING GRAND MANAN
* SOUTH COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM FORT LAWRENCE TO PORTERS LAKE
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN EASTERN CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
IRENE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES…INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 1100 PM EDT…0300 UTC…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.3 NORTH…LONGITUDE 75.4 WEST. IRENE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 16 MPH…26 KM/H…AND THIS
MOTION ACCOMPANIED BY A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK…THE
CENTER OF IRENE WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING…AND MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IRENE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO EASTERN CANADA
SUNDAY NIGHT.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 80 MPH…130
KM/H…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. IRENE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A
HURRICANE AS IT MOVES NEAR OR OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND
APPROACHES NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL IN NEW ENGLAND AND BECOME A POST-TROPICAL
CYCLONE SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.
IRENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE LOCATED
OVER A RELATIVELY SMALL AREA ROUGHLY 125 MILES…205 KM…TO THE
EAST OF THE CENTER. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD
UP TO 240 MILES…390 KM FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND LONG ISLAND
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
A WIND GUST TO 67 MPH WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AS FAR SOUTH AS CAPE
HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA…AND A WIND GUST TO 52 MPH WAS REPORTED AS
FAR NORTH AS THE PHILADELPHIA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.
A STORM SURGE HEIGHT OF ABOUT 5 FEET HAS BEEN OBSERVED AT OREGON
INLET NORTH CAROLINA…AND A STORM SURGE HEIGHT OF ABOUT 4 FEET
HAS OCCURRED THUS FAR AT THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. THE
PRELIMINARY WATER LEVEL AT THE CHESAPEAKE BAY BRIDGE TUNNEL HAS
RECENTLY PEAKED NEAR THE RECORD LEVEL THAT WAS ESTABLISHED DURING
HURRICANE ISABEL IN 2003.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 14 INCHES HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED OVER A
LARGE PORTION OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
VIRGINIA…WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNT THUS FAR OF 14.00 INCHES REPORTED
AT BUNYAN NORTH CAROLINA.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 954 MB…28.17 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND…TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD
ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING…
WITH GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE POSSIBLE BY SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH LONG ISLAND AND
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING…WITH HURRICANE-FORCE
WINDS…ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS…EXPECTED BY NOON SUNDAY. WINDS
AFFECTING THE UPPER FLOORS OF HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THOSE NEAR GROUND-LEVEL.
STORM SURGE…AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER
LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 4 TO 8 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER
NORTHWARD TO CAPE COD…INCLUDING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY AND ITS TRIBUTARIES. NEAR THE COAST…THE SURGE WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE…DESTRUCTIVE…AND LIFE-THREATENING WAVES.
HIGHER THAN NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE OCCURRING THIS WEEKEND.
COASTAL AND RIVER FLOODING WILL BE HIGHEST IN AREAS WHERE THE PEAK
SURGE OCCURS AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. STORM TIDE AND SURGE
VALUES ARE VERY LOCATION-SPECIFIC…AND USERS ARE URGED TO CONSULT
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES.
ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST…INCLUDING THE ALBEMARLE AND
PAMLICO SOUNDS…WATER LEVEL VALUES WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
OVERNIGHT.
RAINFALL…IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
6 TO 12 INCHES…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES…FROM
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
INTO EASTERN NEW YORK AND INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. THESE RAINS…
COMBINED WITH HEAVY RAINS OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS…COULD CAUSE
WIDESPREAD FLOODING…LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS…AND
SIGNIFICANT UPROOTING OF TREES DUE TO RAIN-SOFTENED GROUNDS.
SURF…LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IRENE ARE AFFECTING MUCH OF THE
EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
TORNADOES…ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN
DELAWARE…EASTERN NEW JERSEY…SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK…AND EXTREME
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
FYI: Hurricane Irene, from the National Hurricane Center, Miami
HURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 30B
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
900 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2011
…IRENE LASHING THE VIRGINIA TIDEWATER REGION AND SOUTHERN DELMARVA
PENINSULA WITH HEAVY RAINS AND HURRICANE-FORCE WIND GUSTS…
SUMMARY OF 900 PM EDT…0100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…36.9N 75.6W
ABOUT 100 MI…160 KM SSW OF OCEAN CITY MARYLAND
ABOUT 285 MI…460 KM SSW OF NEW YORK CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…80 MPH…130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 16 MPH…26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…951 MB…28.08 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…
THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT
NORTH CAROLINA.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO SAGAMORE BEACH
MASSACHUSETTS…INCLUDING THE PAMLICO…ALBEMARLE…AND CURRITUCK
SOUNDS…DELAWARE BAY…CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF DRUM POINT…NEW
YORK CITY…LONG ISLAND…LONG ISLAND SOUND…COASTAL CONNECTICUT
AND RHODE ISLAND…BLOCK ISLAND…MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT NORTHWARD AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC
* NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH TO EASTPORT MAINE
* UNITED STATES/CANADA BORDER NORTHEASTWARD TO FORT LAWRENCE
INCLUDING GRAND MANAN
* SOUTH COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM FORT LAWRENCE TO PORTERS LAKE
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN EASTERN CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
IRENE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES…INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 900 PM EDT…0100 UTC…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 36.9 NORTH…LONGITUDE 75.6 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 16 MPH…26 KM/H…AND THIS MOTION
ACCOMPANIED BY A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK…THE CENTER OF
IRENE WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT…AND
MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. IRENE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO EASTERN CANADA SUNDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH…130 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IRENE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES NEAR OR
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND APPROACHES NEW ENGLAND. THE
HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL IN NEW ENGLAND AND
BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.
IRENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES…140 KM…FROM THE CENTER…AND
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES…465 KM.
A WIND GUST TO 76 MPH WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AT THE WILLIAMSBURG-
JAMESTOWN VIRGINIA AIRPORT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL
GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.
A STORM SURGE HEIGHT OF ABOUT 5 FEET HAS BEEN OBSERVED AT OREGON
INLET NORTH CAROLINA…AND A STORM SURGE HEIGHT OF ABOUT 4 FEET
HAS OCCURRED THUS FAR AT THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. THE
PRELIMINARY WATER LEVEL AT THE CHESAPEAKE BAY BRIDGE TUNNEL HAS
RECENTLY PEAKED NEAR THE RECORD LEVEL THAT WAS ESTABLISHED DURING
HURRICANE ISABEL IN 2003.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 14 INCHES HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED OVER A
LARGE PORTION OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
VIRGINIA…WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNT OF 14.00 INCHES REPORTED AT
BUNYAN NORTH CAROLINA THUS FAR.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 951 MB…28.08 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND…TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE SPREAD NORTHWARD
ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS EVENING WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS AFFECTING THE UPPER FLOORS OF
HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THOSE NEAR
GROUND-LEVEL.
STORM SURGE…AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM TIDE WILL RAISE WATER
LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 5 TO 9 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL IN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN NORTH CAROLINA…INCLUDING THE ALBEMARLE
AND PAMLICO SOUNDS. STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH
AS 4 TO 8 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA
FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER NORTHWARD TO CAPE COD
INCLUDING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND ITS
TRIBUTARIES. NEAR THE COAST…THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE…DESTRUCTIVE…AND LIFE-THREATENING WAVES. HIGHER THAN
NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE OCCURRING THIS WEEKEND. COASTAL AND
RIVER FLOODING WILL BE HIGHEST IN AREAS WHERE THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS
AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. STORM TIDE AND SURGE VALUES ARE VERY
LOCATION-SPECIFIC…AND USERS ARE URGED TO CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES.
RAINFALL…IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
6 TO 12 INCHES…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES…FROM
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
INTO EASTERN NEW YORK AND INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. THESE RAINS…
COMBINED WITH HEAVY RAINS OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS…COULD CAUSE
WIDESPREAD FLOODING…LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS…AND
SIGNIFICANT UPROOTING OF TREES DUE TO RAIN-SOFTENED GROUNDS.
SURF…LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IRENE ARE AFFECTING MUCH OF THE
EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
TORNADOES…ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST OF
MARYLAND…DELAWARE…AND NEW JERSEY THROUGH TONIGHT.
Daily record high temperature, Aug. 27, Oklahoma City
RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE SET AT OKLAHOMA CITY FOR AUG. 27…
A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 105 DEGREES WAS SET AT OKLAHOMA CITY
WILL ROGERS AIRPORT TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 104
DEGREES, LAST REACHED IN 2000.
FYI: Hurricane Irene, National Hurricane Center, Miami, Fla.
HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
500 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2011
THE CENTER OF IRENE HAS BEEN MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
THIS AFTERNOON…AND THE RADAR PRESENTATION OF THE INNER CORE
ACTUALLY IMPROVED FOR A FEW HOURS. SINCE THAT TIME…THE RAGGED
EYE HAS FILLED IN BUT THE CENTER REMAINS WELL DEFINED ON
RADAR…WHICH WARRANTS A RETURN TO TWO-HOURLY INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORIES. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
REPORTED PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 85-90 KT TO THE EAST OF THE
CENTER DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS…AND A VERY RECENT CENTER DROP
MEASURED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 950 MB. THERE HAVE NOT BEEN ANY
RECENT SFMR DATA…BUT BASED ON THE EARLIER SHARP DISCREPANCY
BETWEEN THE FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SURFACE WINDS…THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS REDUCED TO 70 KT. A SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS IRENE MOVES
ALONG THE COAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES DUE TO LAND
INTERACTION…COLDER WATERS…DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT…AND INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. BECAUSE THE LARGE WIND FIELD WILL TAKE TIME
TO SPIN DOWN…HOWEVER…IRENE IS STILL EXPECTED TO REACH THE NEW
YORK AREA AT OR NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH.
MORE SO THAN WITH MOST STORMS…THE WINDS WITH IRENE INCREASE
SHARPLY WITH HEIGHT ABOVE THE SURFACE. AS IRENE MOVES THROUGH
AREAS WITH HIGH-RISE STRUCTURES…THESE STRUCTURES WILL EXPERIENCE
WINDS SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN INDICATED BY THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY. WINDS AT THE 30-STORY LEVEL WILL LIKELY BE 20 PERCENT
HIGHER THAN AT THE SURFACE…AND WINDS 80-100 STORIES UP COULD BE
ABOUT 30 PERCENT HIGHER THAN AT THE SURFACE.
THE CENTER CONTINUED NORTHWARD FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME AFTER THE
RELEASE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT HAS RESUMED A NORTHEASTWARD
MOTION OF ABOUT 015/11. IRENE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND OVER NEW
ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. AFTER THE CYCLONE BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL IN 36-48
HOURS IT SHOULD TURN NORTHEASTWARD THEN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD IN THE
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
NOTE THAT ESTIMATES OF STORM TOTAL RAINFALL HAVE BEEN INCREASED WITH
THIS ADVISORY…TO 20 INCHES.b
