Hazardous weather outlook, National Weather Service, Norman

 

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN…WESTERN…
CENTRAL…AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA…AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE…THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT…

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK…
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT… BUT
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

DISCUSSION…
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS KANSAS THROUGH TONIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT… TO THE NORTH OF
OKLAHOMA. OUTFLOW FROM THESE STORMS MAY MOVE INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY THEN BECOME THE FOCUS FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. WEAK WINDS ALOFT AND WEAK
INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THE CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS… BUT THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF HOT AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR AT LOW LEVELS WILL
MEAN THAT A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS…
ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING.

PROBABILITY TABLE…
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT FRIDAY JUL 29.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA…30 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR…20 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER…
HEAT AGAIN WILL REACH DANGEROUS LEVELS TODAY OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. A
HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY…

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK…
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA DUE TO A COLD FRONT IN KANSAS.

THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY…
MAINLY OVER SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA. EFFECTS OF TROPICAL STORM DON…
OR ITS REMNANTS… WILL LIKELY REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA. BUT AN
INTRUSION OF INCREASING GULF MOISTURE TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM MAY
RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
DAYTIME AND EVENING HOURS THROUGH SATURDAY.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER…
THE HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH SUNDAY AND COULD BE
EXTENDED INTO NEXT WEEK. THERE MAY BE SOME SLIGHT.. BUT NOT
SIGNIFICANT RELIEF FROM THE EXTREME HEAT EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. THE
LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS IS FORECAST TO BUILD AND INTENSIFY AGAIN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
EXTREME HEAT IS THEN LIKELY TO PERSIST OR RETURN FOR AT LEAST THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. WILDFIRE POTENTIAL WILL ALSO REMAIN HIGH
DUE TO THE CONTINUED HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS.

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