Rainfall totals in the last 3 hours, Oklahoma Mesonet
Seiling, .97 inches
Spencer, .96 inches
Oklahoma City – North, .74 inches
Oklahoma City – East, .68 inches
Norman – .67 inches
Watonga – .62 inches
Spencer has received .97 inches in the hour
Significant weather advisory, National Weather Service, Norman
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
756 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2011
OKZ026-030-031-281330-
LINCOLN OK-POTTAWATOMIE OK-SEMINOLE OK-
756 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2011
…SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY…
THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR LINCOLN…POTTAWATOMIE AND
SEMINOLE COUNTIES.
AT 756 AM CDT…A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM 6
MILES NORTHWEST OF MEEKER TO 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF CENTERVIEW…MOVING
EAST AT 30 MPH.
HAZARDS INCLUDE…
HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH…
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH…
Significant Weather Advisory, National Weather Service, Norman
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
758 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2011
OKZ019-025-026-281330-
LINCOLN OK-LOGAN OK-OKLAHOMA OK-
758 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2011
…SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY…
THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR LINCOLN…LOGAN AND OKLAHOMA
COUNTIES.
AT 758 AM CDT…A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM 3
MILES NORTH OF CARNEY TO 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF EDMOND…MOVING EAST
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.
HAZARDS INCLUDE…
HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH…
WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH…
Spencer has received .85 inches within the hour as of 7:50 a.m., Oklahoma Mesonet
Oklahoma City East has received .67 inches and Oklahoma City North has received .62 inches in the last hour, as of 7:50 a.m.
In comparison, the Oklahoma Mesonet Station for Oklahoma City East has received only .53 inches in all of June until this morning.
Short-term forecast, National Weather Service, Norman
CARTER-CLAY-CLEVELAND-COAL-COMANCHE-COTTON-CUSTER-DEWEY-ELLIS-FOARD-
GARFIELD-GARVIN-GRADY-GRANT-GREER-HARDEMAN-HARMON-HARPER-HUGHES-
JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSTON-KAY-KINGFISHER-KIOWA-KNOX-LINCOLN-LOGAN-
LOVE-MAJOR- MARSHALL-MCCLAIN-MURRAY-NOBLE-OKLAHOMA-PAYNE-PONTOTOC-
POTTAWATOMIE-ROGER MILLS-SEMINOLE-STEPHENS-TILLMAN-WASHITA-WICHITA-
WILBARGER-
751 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2011
.REGIONAL WEATHER DISCUSSION…
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS… SOME WITH STRONG WINDS HAIL
AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS… WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH PARTS OF
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING.
RADAR AT 745 AM INDICATED WIDESPREAD STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
OKLAHOMA CITY METRO AREA EAST AND SOUTHEAST TO AROUND
CHANDLER…SEMINOLE AND ADA. THE AREA OF STORMS WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT AROUND 30 MPH. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS… WINDS GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH… SMALL
HAIL… AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. AN ISOLATED SEVERE
STORM… WITH HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS… WILL BE POSSIBLE.
DESPITE RECENT DRY CONDITIONS… VERY HEAVY RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD
OF TIME WILL LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS THIS
MORNING.
Significant weather advisory, Canadian County
CANADIAN OK-OKLAHOMA OK-
742 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2011
…SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY…
THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR CANADIAN AND OKLAHOMA
COUNTIES.
AT 742 AM CDT…A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BETHANY…
MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.
HAZARDS INCLUDE…
HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH…
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH…
Short-term forecast, National Weather Service, Norman
.REGIONAL WEATHER DISCUSSION…
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE STEADILY SOUTHWARD THROUGH PARTS OF
OKLAHOMA. AT 1215 PM…THE FRONT WAS NEAR A CUSHING TO OKLAHOMA CITY
TO ALTUS LINE. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH MOVING TO NEAR
A SEMINOLE…TO DUNCAN… QUANAH TEXAS LINE BY 4 PM.
TEMPERATURES IN AREAS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT WILL STILL BE
WELL INTO THE 90S…WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL COOLING IN FAR NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA WHERE READINGS IN THE 80S WILL PREVAIL. IN ADDITION BRISK
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL NORTH OF THE FRONT WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR 30 MPH.
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
Drought to have multi-year effect on rebuilding of the U.S. cow herd, by Donald Stotts, Oklahoma State University
By Donald Stotts
STILLWATER, Okla. – Ongoing drought conditions in the southern Great Plains states make it increasingly likely the rebuilding of the United States’ cow herd will take four years or more.
For the year to date, beef cow slaughter decreased 4.4 percent nationally while beef cow slaughter in Region 6, which closely corresponds to the drought area, increased 11.7 percent.
Derrell Peel, Oklahoma State University Cooperative Extension livestock marketing specialist, said the contrast between beef cow slaughter nationally and in the drought region clearly indicates that the effects are significant.
“At a minimum, Region 6 beef cow slaughter at the same rate relative to the cow herd as last year – which implies additional herd liquidation – would suggest about 49,000 fewer head than last year,” he said. “Without the drought the national slaughter rate would be down 7.7 percent compared to the observed rate of 4.4 percent for the year to date.”
Moreover, a Region 6 slaughter rate closer to the long-term average regional rate would suggest that an additional 100,000 head of cows have been added to total beef cow slaughter so far this year because of the drought.
For the entire year of 2011, it appears that beef cow slaughter could have decreased approximately 10 percent year over year in the absence of drought, a value that is consistent with herd expansion.
“The additional 100,000 head of culling already estimated implies that the annual beef cow slaughter rate would be limited to a decrease of 7 percent to 8 percent, and that assumes no additional drought-induced culling for the remainder of the year,” Peel said.
However, the drought is still very much in place and more culling is likely.
“Projecting the current rate of slaughter for the southern Great Plains states for the rest of 2011 would result in a national beef cow slaughter rate that decreases only 3 percent,” Peel said.
Peel’s analysis indicates the resulting drought impacts are likely to have implications on the cow herd for several years.
“My early projections showed that it might have been possible to stabilize the beef herd this year but only under the most favorable circumstances,” he said. “Even without a drought it was likely that the U.S. cow herd could easily decrease another 0.5 percent to 1 percent in 2011. Depending on how much additional drought liquidation occurs, beef herd liquidation upwards of 2 percent is increasingly likely.”
Doing the math indicates that if the effects of the drought were to stop now, the additional cow slaughter that has already occurred would likely result in beef herd liquidation of close to 1.5 percent for the year.
“However, the additional herd liquidation will extend and exaggerate the current reduced animal inventories by at least another year,” Peel said.
In short, herd growth rates will be limited when they finally do start. Peel said that makes it increasingly likely that any significant herd rebuilding will take at least four years to six years.
Hazardous weather outlook, National Weather Service, Norman
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1200 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2011
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN…WESTERN…
CENTRAL…AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA…AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
.DAY ONE…THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT…
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK…
ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
LOCATION…
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE OVER PARTS OF WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
TIMING…
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.
DISCUSSION…
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHERN PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. VERY WARM
MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY LIMIT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE…BUT
A FEW STORMS MAY FORM ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP WILL BE HIGH BASED BUT MAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND AND HAIL.
OTHER THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE STORMS SHOULD BE MORE ORGANIZED AND MAY
MOVE INTO PARTS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS LATER
TONIGHT. A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE WINDS AND
HAIL.
PROBABILITY TABLE…
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT TUESDAY JUN 28.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA…40 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR…20 PERCENT.
OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER…
VERY HOT TEMPERATURES…ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF HEAT RELATED
ILLNESSES. PLEASE REFER TO THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR DETAILS.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY…
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK…
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA NEAR AN OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AS THE FRONT LIFTS TO THE NORTH.
OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER…
EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
WILL ELEVATE THE RISK OF WILDFIRES ON VERY HOT AND WINDY DAYS. THE
COLD FRONT TODAY WILL BRING A DAY OR TWO OF SOME RELIEF FROM THE
HEAT BUT TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN INCREASE BY WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. PLAN AHEAD AND WORK DURING THE EARLY MORNING OR
EVENING HOURS TO AVOID HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES.
