Hazardous weather outlook, National Weather Service, Norman

 

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1130 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN…WESTERN…
CENTRAL…AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA…AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE…THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT…

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK…
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS PARTS OF OKLAHOMA.

LOCATION…
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
CHEROKEE TO EL RENO TO LAWTON AND HENRIETTA…TEXAS.

TIMING…
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE BETWEEN 5 PM AND 10
PM. HOWEVER… A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.

IMPACTS…
HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLFBALLS AND STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS…
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD BE READY FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS FROM LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION…
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES QUICKLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  MEANWHILE…HOT AND DRY AIR WILL PUSH
INTO PARTS OF SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS BEHIND A
DRYLINE.  BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON…A FEW STORMS MAY FORM ALONG AND
NEAR THE DRYLINE OR FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION
MAY PREVENT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALTOGETHER…BUT IF STORMS DO
FORM…SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LIKELY. 

BY LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA AND AREAS NORTH AND EAST. 

PROBABILITY TABLE…
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT SATURDAY MAY 28.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA…30 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR…60 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER…
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS BEHIND THE DRYLINE COULD INCREASE THE
WILDFIRE POTENTIAL IN PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. HOWEVER…
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTREME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY…

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK…
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. 

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH NORTHERN OKLAHOMA LATE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA.

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