Hazardous weather outlook, National Weather Service, Norman

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN…WESTERN…
CENTRAL…AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA…AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE…TODAY AND TONIGHT…

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK…
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

LOCATION…
THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE EAST
OF A LINE FROM MEDFORD… TO STILLWATER… SEMINOLE… TO ADA AND
DURANT.

TIMING…
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE MID-EVENING HOURS.

IMPACTS…
HAIL TO THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS AND WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH WILL
BE POSSIBLE.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS…
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE WEATHER FORECAST AND BE
PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

DISCUSSION…
A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS STORM
SYSTEM SOUTH WINDS WILL BRING INCREASING AMOUNTS OF GULF MOISTURE
NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA. BY THIS AFTERNOON AN AREA
OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO EAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS. MEANWHILE… A DRYLINE… INITIALLY LOCATED
FROM ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WILL MOVE EAST
TOWARD THE I-35 CORRIDOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. 

A LAYER OF VERY WARM AIR ABOVE THE GROUND… OR CAP… WILL PREVENT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. HOWEVER BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
AREA… ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND
DRYLINE INTERSECTION FROM SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS INTO NORTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE QUICKLY TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST AND IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY EVENING.

FARTHER SOUTH… THE CAP IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT UNTIL LATER IN THE EVENING AS COOLER AIR ALOFT MOVES
OVER THE AREA. BY THIS TIME THE DRYLINE WILL BE PUSHING INTO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER MOISTURE MAY STILL BE IN PLACE TO THE EAST OF THE
OKLAHOMA CITY METRO INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA FOR A FEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS… AGAIN WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUST BEING
THE MAIN THREATS. ALL THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECT TO BE EAST
OF THE AREA BY LATE EVENING. 

PROBABILITY TABLE…
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CST MONDAY FEB 28.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA…40 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR…60 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER…
DENSE FOG OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MID-MORNING HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING. SEE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
DETAILS.

TODAYS STORM SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS. THIS
WILL RAISE WILDFIRE POTENTIAL REGION WIDE… BUT ESPECIALLY NEAR AND
WEST OF THE DRYLINE… INCLUDING MUCH OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. WESTERLY WINDS BLOWING BEHIND THE DRYLINE MAY
BECOME PARTICULARLY STRONG THIS AFTERNOON… WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 50
MPH. IF THIS OCCURS AS FORECAST… EXPLOSIVE WILDFIRE GROWTH WILL BE
POSSIBLE. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
AND MOST OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF OKLAHOMA… BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH
THE AREA TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY…

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK…
NONE.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER…
WILDFIRE CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK…
AS WARM… DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

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