Hazardous weather outlook, National Weather Service, Norman

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN…WESTERN…
CENTRAL…AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA…AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE…THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK…
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

LOCATION…
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM STILLWATER AND
CHANDLER… TO SHAWNEE AND ADA… TO ATOKA. OTHER NON-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EXTEND FARTHER WEST TO NEAR A
NEWKIRK… TO EL RENO.. TO SEYMOUR TEXAS LINE.

TIMING…
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THROUGH
MIDNIGHT.

IMPACTS…
LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS… AND WINDS TO NEAR 65 MPH.
IF ANY DISCRETE SUPERCELLS CAN DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT… A
TORNADO OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

DISCUSSION…
LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULL MOISTURE… AND MORE
UNSTABLE AIR… NORTHWARD INTO OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS… WITH THE
MOST UNSTABLE AIR EXPECTED TO BE OVER EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY BY THIS EVENING…AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR OVER THE
AREA WILL HELP SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT… THE
PRESENCE OF EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER COULD ACT TO LESSEN THE AMOUNT OF
AVAILABLE INSTABILITY IN SOME LOCATIONS. HOWEVER… SHOULD THE CLOUD
COVER THIN OUT MORE THAN IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED… THE INSTABILITY
AND THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL INCREASE. A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL HELP MAINTAIN THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE NIGHT ALTHOUGH SEVERE STORM CHANCES WILL DIMINISH BY
LATE TONIGHT DUE TO DECREASING INSTABILITY.

PROBABILITY TABLE…
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CST THURSDAY NOV 23.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA…80 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR…20 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER…
A DRYLINE WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND
NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. THE WARM… DRY AIR BEHIND IT WILL
COMBINE WITH MODERATE WINDS TO ELEVATE WILDFIRE CONCERNS. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SHARP WIND SHIFT AND AN INCREASE IN WIND
SPEEDS BEGINNING IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
SPREADING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL TURN SHARPLY COLDER OVER ALL OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHILE THE BRISK NORTH WINDS WILL RESULT
IN WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS
BY LATE TONIGHT. FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY…

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK…
ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
WILL EXIT THE AREA BY MIDDAY. THE INSTABILITY BY THAT TIME IS
EXPECTED TO BE INSUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER…
GUSTY NORTH WINDS ALONG WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN
WIND CHILLS RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS IN PARTS OF WESTERN
OKLAHOMA… TO THE TEENS OVER MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THURSDAY MORNING.

A HARD FREEZE IS EXPECTED OVER THE ENTIRE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND TWENTIES WILL
OCCUR AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

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