Short-term forecast, National Weather Service, Norman
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE SHOWERS WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD EAST OF A LINE FROM MEDFORD TO
GUTHRIE TO SHAWNEE. LOCAL AREAS WILL RECEIVE RAINFALL OF AROUND ONE
HALF INCH PER HOUR.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES… ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS.
Hazardous weather outlook, National Weather Service, Norman
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1205 PM CDT FRI OCT 22 2010
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN…WESTERN…
CENTRAL…AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA…AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
.DAY ONE…TODAY AND TONIGHT…
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK…
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
LOCATION…
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS GENERALLY WEST AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ALVA
TO EL RENO TO NORMAN TO SEMINOLE. THIS ALSO INCLUDES ALL OF WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS.
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS…
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS
THE RISK AREA SHOULD BE READY FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS.
DISCUSSION…
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL… SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE RELATIVELY STABLE… ENOUGH
ELEVATED INSTABILITY EXISTS TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
PRODUCING HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND WIND GUSTS OF 60 MPH.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON NEAR
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES… THEN MOVE
INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON HEATING AND
INSTABILITY THAT DEVELOPS…. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. ANY SEVERE STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF BECOMING
SUPERCELLS…PRODUCING HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS OF
70 MPH. AN ISOLATED TORNADO WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
WHILE THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACTIVITY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
HEATING…OTHER WEATHER FEATURES WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER OVERNIGHT IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY. A PLUME OF RICH
GULF MOISTURE MAY CAUSE INSTABILITY TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT FROM
WICHITA FALLS UP THROUGH SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. AT THE SAME TIME…A JET
STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH…PROVIDING INCREASING LIFT AND
STRONG WIND SHEAR. IF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN THIS ENVIRONMENT…
SOME MAY BECOME SUPERCELLS…EVEN DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.
PROBABILITY TABLE…
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT SATURDAY OCT 23.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA…100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR…70 PERCENT.
OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER…
NONE.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY…
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK…
ANOTHER UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL INTERACT WITH A PACIFIC COLD
FRONT ON SATURDAY. THERE IS A RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY…MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. A FEW STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
ON SUNDAY. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LESS LIKELY BEGINNING SUNDAY…BUT
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COLD FRONTS AND A
CHANCE OF RAIN INTO NEXT WEEK.
OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER…
DEEP LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN KANSAS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. THIS WILL
BRING STRONG GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ALONG WITH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES.
THEREFORE…THE RISK OF WILDFIRES WILL INCREASE…ESPECIALLY ACROSS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY THURSDAY
MORNING WHICH MAY RESULT IN AREAS OF FROST…ESPECIALLY ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
Last 12 hours
Oklahoma Mesonet station rainfall reports include:
Apache, 3.57 inches of rain in the last 12 hours
Medicine Park, 3.26 inches
Tipton, 2.96 inches
Minco, 2.29 inches
Reports of more than 2 inches of rain in Altus
Warning decision update, from the National Weather Service, Norman, for Central and Southern Oklahoma
THIS WARNING DECISION UPDATE CONCERNS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA.
LINEAR CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM OKLAHOMA CITY TOWARD DUNCAN…AND
MOVING NORTHEAST…HAD BECOME BETTER DEFINED AND TAKEN ON A BOWING
STRUCTURE. THIS LINE SHOULD MAINTAIN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN REACHES OF AN INSTABILITY AXIS THAT LAY ALONG AND
EITHER SIDE OF INTERSTATE 35. DESPITE BOWING STRUCTURE…SURFACE
WINDS HAD FAILED TO RESPOND TO MORE THAN GUSTS OF 30 OR 35 MPH. COOL
AND STABLE LOW LEVEL AIR RESIDING OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SHOULD HELP
TO KEEP WIND GUSTS BELOW SEVERE LEVELS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
GREATER WIND POTENTIAL WOULD BE TOWARD SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA…
WHERE TEMPERATURES WERE WARMER…AND A SHALLOW INVERSION WILL BE
ENTIRELY MIXED OUT FOR TEMPERATURES OF ABOUT 73 DEGREES. STILL…THE
THREAT MAY BE LIMITED BY THE TENDENCY FOR CONVECTION TO LIFT OUT OF
THE INSTABILITY AXIS…WHILE SUBSIDENCE TO THE SOUTH OF A JET STREAK
LIMITS NEW DEVELOPMENT IN THE RED RIVER AREA.
Significant weather advisory for Pottawatomie, Cleveland and Garvin Counties
POTTAWATOMIE OK-CLEVELAND OK-GARVIN OK-
1113 AM CDT FRI OCT 22 2010
…SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY…
THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR CLEVELAND…GARVIN AND
POTTAWATOMIE COUNTIES.
AT 1113 AM CDT…A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM 17
MILES WEST OF MOORE TO 15 MILES WEST OF PERNELL…MOVING EAST AT 40
MPH.
HAZARDS INCLUDE…
HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH…
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH…
MINOR FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE…
MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE ALERT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS.
Significant weather advisory, for Grady, McClain, Garvin and Stephens Counties, National Weather Service, Norman
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1102 AM CDT FRI OCT 22 2010
GRADY OK-MCCLAIN OK-GARVIN OK-STEPHENS OK-
1102 AM CDT FRI OCT 22 2010
…SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY…
THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR GARVIN…GRADY…MCCLAIN AND
STEPHENS COUNTIES.
AT 1102 AM CDT…A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM 3
MILES SOUTHEAST OF AMBER TO 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF COMANCHE…MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.
HAZARDS INCLUDE…
HAIL UP TO DIME-SIZE…
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH…
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH MAY LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING IN AREAS OF
POOR DRAINAGE…
MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE ALERT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS.
Some rainfall amounts, last 24 hours, as of 10:45 a.m., Oklahoma Mesonet
Source: Oklahoma Mesonet stations, last 24 hours as of 10:45 a.m.
Apache, 3.52 inches
Hollis, 3.52 inches of rain
Retrop, 3.28 inches
Medicine Park, 3.26 inches
Tipton, 3.01 inches
Significant weather advisory, Grady, Cotton, Jefferson, Comanche, Stephens Counties, National Weather Service, Norman
GRADY OK-COTTON OK-JEFFERSON OK-COMANCHE OK-STEPHENS OK-
FRI OCT 22 2010
…SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY…
THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR COMANCHE…COTTON…GRADY…
JEFFERSON AND STEPHENS COUNTIES.
AT 1032 AM CDT…A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM 5
MILES NORTHWEST OF ACME TO TAYLOR…MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.
HAZARDS INCLUDE…
HAIL UP TO DIME-SIZE…
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH…
EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINFALL…
MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE ALERT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS.
At 10:20 a.m., Medicine Park and Apache, over an inch of rain in the last hour
Medicine Park and Apache Mesonet stations, each with 1.07 inches of rain in the last hour
