Hazardous weather outlook, National Weather Service, Norman

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1205 PM CDT FRI OCT 22 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN…WESTERN…
CENTRAL…AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA…AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE…TODAY AND TONIGHT…

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK…
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION…
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS GENERALLY WEST AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ALVA
TO EL RENO TO NORMAN TO SEMINOLE. THIS ALSO INCLUDES ALL OF WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS…
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS
THE RISK AREA SHOULD BE READY FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS.

DISCUSSION…
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL… SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE RELATIVELY STABLE… ENOUGH
ELEVATED INSTABILITY EXISTS TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
PRODUCING HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND WIND GUSTS OF 60 MPH.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON NEAR
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES… THEN MOVE
INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON HEATING AND
INSTABILITY THAT DEVELOPS…. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. ANY SEVERE STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF BECOMING
SUPERCELLS…PRODUCING HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS OF
70 MPH. AN ISOLATED TORNADO WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

WHILE THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACTIVITY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
HEATING…OTHER WEATHER FEATURES WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER OVERNIGHT IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY. A PLUME OF RICH
GULF MOISTURE MAY CAUSE INSTABILITY TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT FROM
WICHITA FALLS UP THROUGH SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. AT THE SAME TIME…A JET
STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH…PROVIDING INCREASING LIFT AND
STRONG WIND SHEAR. IF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN THIS ENVIRONMENT…
SOME MAY BECOME SUPERCELLS…EVEN DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.

PROBABILITY TABLE…
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT SATURDAY OCT 23.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA…100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR…70 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER…
NONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY…

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK…
ANOTHER UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL INTERACT WITH A PACIFIC COLD
FRONT ON SATURDAY. THERE IS A  RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY…MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. A FEW STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
ON SUNDAY. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LESS LIKELY BEGINNING SUNDAY…BUT
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COLD FRONTS AND A
CHANCE OF RAIN INTO NEXT WEEK.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER…
DEEP LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN KANSAS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES.  THIS WILL
BRING STRONG GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ALONG WITH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES.
THEREFORE…THE RISK OF WILDFIRES WILL INCREASE…ESPECIALLY ACROSS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA. 

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY THURSDAY
MORNING WHICH MAY RESULT IN AREAS OF FROST…ESPECIALLY ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.

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