Hazardous weather outlook, National Weather Service, Norman

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500 AM CDT THU SEP 23 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN…WESTERN…
CENTRAL…AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA…AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE…TODAY AND TONIGHT…

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK…
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.

LOCATION…
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS NORTH OF A LINE FROM BUFFALO TO FAIRVIEW TO
PERRY.

TIMING…
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS…
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS FROM
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

DISCUSSION…
AN UPPER-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL MOVE
QUICKLY NORTHEAST TODAY… REACHING THE GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY
MORNING. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW… OVER EASTERN COLORADO EARLY
THIS MORNING… WILL MOVE TO NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR BY MORNING… WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
TO INCREASE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON…
POSSIBLY BUILDING SOUTH TOWARD NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS… A FEW OF WHICH MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO OVERSPREAD A LARGER PART OF
OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE STATE…
BUT THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL DECREASE BY NIGHTFALL.

PROBABILITY TABLE…
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT FRIDAY SEP 24.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA…80 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR…40 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER…
NONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY…

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK…
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT… MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER…
NONE.

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