FYI: Hurricane Alex information, from National Hurricane Center, Alex is the first June Atlantic Hurricane since 1995
ALEX BECOMES THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE 2010 SEASON AND THE FIRST
JUNE ATLANTIC HURRICANE SINCE 1995…
SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT…1200 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…23.4N 95.3W
ABOUT 155 MI…250 KM E OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 220 MI…355 KM SE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…80 MPH…130 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH…11 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…959 MB…28.32 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* THE COAST OF TEXAS SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO
GRANDE
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO LA CRUZ
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN IN EFFECT FOR…
* THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT OCONNOR
* THE COAST OF MEXICO SOUTH OF LA CRUZ TO CABO ROJO
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES…INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
UNITED STATES…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 700 AM CDT…1200 UTC…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ALEX WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.4 NORTH…LONGITUDE 95.3 WEST. ALEX IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH…11 KM/HR. A SLOW WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK…THE CENTER OF ALEX WILL APPROACH THE COAST
OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OR SOUTHERN TEXAS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING…AND MAKE LANDFALL IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA
LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 80 MPH…130 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ALEX IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST…AND
ALEX COULD BECOME A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE PRIOR TO LANDFALL. ALEX
WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AFTER ITS CENTER CROSSES THE COASTLINE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES…35 KM…FROM
THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200
MILES…325 KM. NOAA BUOY 42055 LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF ALEX RECENTLY
REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 54 MPH…86 KM/HR WITH A GUST OF 63
MPH…101 KM/HR.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 959 MB…28.32 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL…ALEX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN
TEXAS…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES…
ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH ALEX
ARE SPREADING ONSHORE IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS.
WIND…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST
WITHIN THE HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREAS LATER THIS
MORNING…MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.
STORM SURGE…A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. THE SURGE COULD
PENETRATE INLAND AS FAR AS SEVERAL MILES FROM THE SHORE WITH DEPTH
GENERALLY DECREASING AS THE WATER MOVES INLAND. NEAR THE COAST…
THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
TORNADOES…ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME
SOUTHERN TEXAS TODAY.
Hazardous weather outlook, National Weather Service, Norman
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN…WESTERN…
CENTRAL…AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA…AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
.DAY ONE…TODAY AND TONIGHT…
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK…
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION…
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND
EXTREME SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR…NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.
PROBABILITY TABLE…
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT THURSDAY JUL 1.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA…30 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR…LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.
OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER…
NONE.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY…
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK…
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY…MAINLY OVER WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND FAR
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER…AS MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK…THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE. THE
CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN VERY LOW…BUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL INCREASE.
Short-term forecast, National Weather Service, Norman
REGIONAL WEATHER DISCUSSION…
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUALLY
DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON.
MOST OF THESE WILL BE SOUTH OF ATOKA…ARDMORE…AND WAURIKA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL CAUSE MINOR
FLOODING IS SPECIFIC SPOTS. THE SHOWERS ARE MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWEST.
Short-term forecast, south central and southeast Oklahoma, National Weather Service, Norman
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUALLY
DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON.
MOST OF THESE WILL BE SOUTH OF ADA…PAULS VALLEY…AND RUSH
SPRINGS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL CAUSE
MINOR FLOODING IS SPECIFIC SPOTS. THE SHOWERS ARE MOVING SLOWLY WEST.
Significant weather advisory, Atoka, Bryan, Carter, Johnston, Love, Marshall, Murray Counties, National Weather Service, Norman
…SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY…
THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR ATOKA…BRYAN…CARTER…
JOHNSTON…LOVE…MARSHALL AND MURRAY COUNTIES.
AT 1243 PM CDT…STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE OVER PARTS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA…MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH.
VERY HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS… AND THERE IS A CHANCE
OF SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
HAZARDS INCLUDE…
MINOR FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE…
FYI: Tropical Storm Alex, from National Hurricane Center
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT ALEX HAS A SOMEWHAT RAGGED APPEARANCE
THIS MORNING…WITH A CONVECTIVE BURST OCCURRING JUST EAST OF THE
CENTER AND AN APPARENT DRY SLOT WEST OF THE CENTER. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL
WINDS OF 70 KT AND SFMR WINDS OF 57 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT…
THE LATTER ABOUT 20 NM FROM THE CENTER. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE WAS 982 MB. BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT WINDS…THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS 60 KT. THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS FAIR TO THE NORTH
AND EAST…AND POOR ELSEWHERE.
ALEX HAS TURNED LEFT AND ACCELERATED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
THE 12 HR MOTION IS 325/10…AND THE SHORT-TERM MOTION MAY BE
FASTER. RAWINSONDE DATA THIS MORNING SHOW HEIGHT RISES FROM
850-500 MB OVER LOUISIANA AND TEXAS…INDICATING THE LOW/MID-LEVEL
RIDGE IN THIS AREA IS STRENGTHENING AS FORECAST BY THE LARGE-SCALE
MODELS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ALEX WILL
GRADUALLY TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND WESTWARD ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF
THIS RIDGE AS IT STRENGTHENS FURTHER DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HR.
INDEED…THE ECMWF AND THE NAM SUGGEST ALEX COULD TURN SOUTH OF
WEST AFTER IT MAKES LANDFALL. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A
LITTLE TO THE SOUTH AND IS FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON
CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION. HOWEVER…IT STILL LIES NORTH OF THE
CONSENSUS MODELS AND THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. OF THE
DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE…ONLY THE HWRF AND NOGAPS ARE CURRENTLY NORTH
OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
THE CENTRAL CONVECTIVE BURST IS PRODUCING TOPS COLDER THAN
-80C…AND THE AIRCRAFT IS REPORTING A PARTIAL EYEWALL. THESE ARE
SIGNS THAT ALEX COULD STRENGTHEN SOON. ON THE OTHER HAND…THE
OUTFLOW IS RESTRICTED ON THE WEST SIDE WHERE THERE IS APPARENTLY
SOME DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. IN ADDITION…THE GFDL…HWRF…AND GFDN
DO NOT FORECAST SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING DESPITE A SEEMINGLY
FAVORABLE LIGHT-SHEAR WARM-WATER ENVIRONMENT. THE SHIPS AND LGEM
MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST ALEX TO BECOME A HURRICANE…AND THE
NEW INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT. THE NEW FORECAST IS AN UPDATE
OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND LIES AT THE UPPER EDGE OF THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
THE AIRCRAFT DATA SHOW THAT THE 34 KT WIND RADII HAVE EXPANDED OVER
ALL QUADRANTS EXCEPT THE SOUTHWEST. BETWEEN THIS AND THE FASTER
FORWARD MOTION…THERE IS NOW ABOUT 12 HOURS LESS TIME TO MAKE
PREPARATIONS BEFORE THE ONSET OF TROPICAL-STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE
WARNING AREA THAN COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
Hazardous weather outlook, National Weather Service, Norman
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN…WESTERN…
CENTRAL…AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA…AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
.DAY ONE…TODAY AND TONIGHT…
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK…
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION…
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING NEAR
AND SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS…BUT WITH THE RELATIVELY WEAK WINDS
AND AMPLE MOISTURE OVER THE REGION…ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT MANAGE
TO DEVELOP WILL MOVE SLOWLY AND PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN. THE MAIN
HAZARDS WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND MINOR FLOODING OF
LOW-LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
PROBABILITY TABLE…
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT WEDNESDAY JUN 30.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA…80 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR…LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.
OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER…
NONE.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY…
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK…
A RIDGE ALOFT WILL SUPPRESS RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
MORE MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AT THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN IN THE LATE
WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
Thunderstorms could form early evening anywhere from I-40 corridor in central Oklahoma, southward, National Weather Service, Norman
REGIONAL WEATHER DISCUSSION…
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS THROUGH 6 PM. AT 420 PM…
RADAR INDICATED THAT SHOWERS WERE CONFINED TO ONLY A FEW SMALL
AREAS… ONE IN SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA FROM NEAR CORDELL TO JUST EAST
OF ALTUS… IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BETWEEN HOLDENVILLE AND
WETUMKA… IN FAR SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA ALONG THE RED RIVER EAST OF
LAKE TEXOMA… AND IN WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WEST OF KNOX CITY. THESE
AREAS OF SHOWERS… AND THE INDIVIDUAL SHOWERS THEMSELVES… WERE
MOVING VERY SLOWLY AND IN SOME CASES WERE NOT MOVING AT ALL.
INDIVIDUAL SHOWERS WILL LIKELY FORM AND DISSIPATE RATHER QUICKLY…
BUT CONDITIONS ARE SUCH THAT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COULD FORM THROUGH EARLY EVENING ALMOST ANYWHERE FROM THE I-40
CORRIDOR IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SOUTHWARD. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS… BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
Gary McManus of the Oklahoma Climatological Survey writes about rain, a lack of rain and possible rain
There were several totals above 2 inches, and a couple of those weree above 3 inches.
Sallisaw 3.45 inches of rain
Washington 2.15
Waurika 3.04
Norman 2.11
Ada 2.65
Spencer 2.08
McAlester 2.65
Nowata 2.03
Okemah 2.46
Wister 2.03
Centrahoma 2.33
McManus said: And while this month is going to be remembered for its rain, the statewide average for the month will probably finish a tad below normal. As of today, that average is 3.88 inches, 0.08 inches below normal. However, that’s still the 39th wettest such period since 1921. Odd, right?
Well, that’s due to the variable nature of June’s precipitation totals. For many of the years, the totals are either really high or really low.
Tropical Storm Alex is currently churning away in the Gulf of Mexico and is expected to strengthen to Hurricane status in the near future.
Some forecast models do exactly that, bringing the remnants of the storm over central or eastern Oklahoma.
Isolated thunderstorms expected across southern Love and Bryan Counties, National Weather Service, Norman
REGIONAL WEATHER DISCUSSION…
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS SOUTHERN LOVE AND BYRAN COUNTIES THROUGH 5 PM. HEAVY RAINFALL
IS LIKELY. THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING EAST AROUND 10 MPH.
