Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Dewey, Ellis, Woodward, Custer, Roger Mills Counties
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…
DEWEY COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA…
SOUTHEASTERN ELLIS COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA…
SOUTHEASTERN WOODWARD COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA…
WESTERN CUSTER COUNTY IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA…
EASTERN ROGER MILLS COUNTY IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA…
* UNTIL 815 PM CDT
* AT 709 PM CDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 4 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
ANGORA TO 3 MILES SOUTH OF HAMMON…MOVING NORTH AT 50 MPH.
HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE…
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS…
WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH…
* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE ANGORA…BUTLER…CAMARGO…
CESTOS…FOSS RESERVOIR…HAMMON…HARMON…LEEDEY…MOOREWOOD…
MUTUAL…PUTNAM…SEILING…TALOGA AND VICI.
Severe Thunderstorm warning for Harper, Woods, Woodward Counties until 8 p.m., National Weather Service, Norman Forecast Office
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…
EASTERN HARPER COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA…
WESTERN WOODS COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA…
WOODWARD COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA…
* UNTIL 800 PM CDT
* AT 655 PM CDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES EAST OF MAY TO 17
MILES WEST OF SHARON TO 27 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SHARON…MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.
HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE…
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS…
WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH…
* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE ALABASTER CAVERNS STATE PARK…
FORT SUPPLY…FREEDOM…MAY…MOORELAND…QUINLAN…SELMAN…
SHARON…TANGIER AND WOODWARD.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…
PARTICULARLY DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY. MOBILE HOMES AND HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES ARE ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO HIGH WINDS AND MAY BE
OVERTURNED. MOVE TO A STURDY BUILDING AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
Quarter size hail 15 miles north of Guymon at 1:03 p.m., reported to National Weather Service, Amarillo
Short-term forecast, National Weather Service, Norman on this Monday afternoon
REGIONAL WEATHER DISCUSSION…
INSTABILITIES WERE INCREASING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA
AND NORTH TEXAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES CLIMBED INTO
THE 80S. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES… AND SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS MIDLAND.
THIS ACTIVITY WAS OCCURRING AHEAD OF DRYLINE THAT WAS LOCATED ACROSS
FAR WESTERN TEXAS. THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS ONLY SLIGHTLY
FARTHER TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON.
A WEAKENING OF THE MID-LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER
PARTS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. SOME OF THE
STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTH TEXAS PLAINS
COULD ALSO MOVE INTO THE FAR WESTERN PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS.
The Hazardous Weather Outlook, National Weather Service, Norman
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN…WESTERN…
CENTRAL…AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA…AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
.DAY ONE…THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT…
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK…
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF
NORTH TEXAS.
LOCATION…
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS GENERALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM CHEROKEE… TO
WEATHERFORD… TO FREDERICK… TO SEYMOUR TEXAS.
TIMING…
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM 2 PM TO
10 PM.
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS…
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
DISCUSSION…
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER MAINLY
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. AN UPPER LEVEL STORM
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE
WEAK LIFT OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE UPPER STORMS SYSTEM HAS ALSO WEAKENED THE
STRONG CAPPING INVERSION THAT SUPPRESSED STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
THE REGION THIS PAST WEEKEND. DUE TO THE LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT
SURFACE BOUNDARY TO FOCUS LOW LEVEL LIFT… INITIAL STORM
DEVELOPMENT COULD BE SCATTERED ANYWHERE ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA OR
NORTH TEXAS.
WHILE PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL YIELD MODERATE TO HIGH
INSTABILITIES SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT… THE
DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK. THIS ENVIRONMENT
FAVORS A FEW STORMS POSSIBLY BRIEFLY PRODUCING ISOLATED HAIL TO THE
SIZE OF QUARTERS OR HALF DOLLARS ALONG WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS BEFORE
THE STORM WEAKENS.
PROBABILITY TABLE…
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT TUESDAY MAY 25.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA…80 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR…25 PERCENT.
OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER…
SURFACE WINDS WILL AGAIN GUST 35 TO 40 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY…
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK…
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL FROM THE PANHANDLES INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS
TUESDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT
IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA.
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AND A WEAKENED CAP MAY ALLOW A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A
RIDGE ALOFT. HOWEVER…GIVEN THE WEAK VERTICAL WIND FIELDS ALOFT…
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
Hazardous weather outlook, National Weather Service, Norman
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
MON MAY 24 2010
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN…WESTERN…
CENTRAL…AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA…AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
.DAY ONE…TODAY AND TONIGHT…
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK…
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS.
DISCUSSION…
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN A LAYER OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE THIS
MORNING…PRIMARILY ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
MEAGER AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY EXIST IN THIS LAYER…BUT A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY OVER WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG WINDS ALOFT SEEN OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THESE AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON…ENHANCING LIFT. IN ADDITION…THE WARM AIR CAP IS
FORECAST TO BE SOMEWHAT WEAKER THIS AFTERNOON WHEN COMPARED WITH THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL YIELD
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. IN AN
ENVIRONMENT WITH MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR…SOME ISOLATED HAIL TO
THE SIZE OF QUARTERS MAY OCCUR.
PROBABILITY TABLE…
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT TUESDAY MAY 25.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA…80 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR…20 PERCENT.
OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER…
NONE.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY…
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK…
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL FROM THE PANHANDLES INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS ON
TUESDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT
IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA.
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AND A WEAKENED CAP MAY ALLOW A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A
RIDGE ALOFT. HOWEVER…GIVEN THAT FLOW WILL BE WEAK…SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
Hazardous weather outlook, National Weather Service, Norman
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
FRI MAY 21 2010
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1140 AM CDT FRI MAY 21 2010
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN…WESTERN…
CENTRAL…AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA…AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
.DAY ONE…TODAY AND TONIGHT…
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK…
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION…
THOUGH MOISTURE WILL RETURN NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY TODAY…A
CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD EFFECTIVELY SUPPRESS THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS TODAY. THERE IS A VERY
SLIGHT CHANCE THAT A STORM COULD MAKE IT FROM THE PANHANDLES INTO
FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA LATE THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING.
PROBABILITY TABLE…
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT SATURDAY MAY 22.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA…10 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR…20 PERCENT.
OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER…
RIVERS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA ARE STILL
RUNNING AT HIGH LEVELS. RIVER STATEMENTS AND FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT. PLEASE SEE THE INDIVIDUAL PRODUCTS FOR MORE INFORMATION.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY…
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK…
WITH A DRYLINE SETTING UP IN THE HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WEST OF THE AREA… THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
MOSTLY WEST OF THE MAIN BODY OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. HOWEVER…
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THE STORMS MAY APPROACH FAR WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER…
NONE.
“A Milder and Wetter Summer Possible for Oklahoma” by Gary McManus
A Milder and Wetter Summer Possible for Oklahoma
Gary McManus
Associate State Climatologist
Oklahoma Climatological Survey
After the turbulent weather of the previous two weeks, it appears Oklahoma is going to get a
break from Mother Nature. Based upon preliminary numbers from the National Weather
Service, Oklahoma has experienced more than 50 tornadoes since May 10. The state also saw
numerous types of other severe weather during that period, including possibly the worst
hailstorm to have ever struck Oklahoma City. Now, thanks to a forecast upper-level ridge, the
state could be shifting into a more summer-like pattern.
The latest outlooks from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) indicate an increased
possibility of above-normal temperatures for the next couple of weeks to go along with an
increased chance of below-normal rainfall. The CPC’s outlooks do not indicate how much
warmer or drier the weather could be compared to normal, only that an increased possibility
for both exists through June 3.
The CPC outlooks for the June-August summer period see different processes come into play.
The most important driver of Oklahoma’s climate during summer appears to be the high soil
moisture content currently in place thanks to the heavy rains of the last couple of weeks. Moist
soils can feed convective systems through evaporation, and that evaporation helps to cool the
surface. The summer outlooks reflect that with an increased chance of a wetter and cooler
weather.
Looking even farther out, it appears more and more likely that La Niña conditions will develop
in the equatorial pacific this fall and last throughout winter. While that can mean drier and
warmer weather for the state, the influence will be much more important for points south of
Oklahoma. The strong El Niño that helped bring the state a cool and wet winter has all but
disappeared.
Hazardous Weather Outlook, Friday and for the next few days
Hazardous Weather Outlook
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY…
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK…
WITH DRYLINE SETTING UP IN THE HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WEST OF THE AREA… THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF THE
MAIN BODY OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. HOWEVER… IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT SOME OF THE STORMS MAY APPROACH FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY SHIFT EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW BRINGING A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO PARTS OF OKLAHOMA TUESDAY.
Short-term forecast on this Thursday evening, National Weather Service,Norman
From the National Weather Service, Norman
REGIONAL WEATHER DISCUSSION…
AROUND 5 PM…SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM HOLDENVILLE TO ADA TO ARDMORE. CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
ELSEWHERE…SKIES WERE MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TO
THE LOWER 80S ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTH TEXAS.
–Bryan Painter
