Hazardous Weather Outlook, National Weather Service, Norman

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 TUE MAY 25 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN…WESTERN…
CENTRAL…AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA…AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE…TODAY AND TONIGHT…

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK…
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING.

LOCATION…
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA COVERS LOCATIONS WEST OF A CHEYENNE TO ALVA
LINE.

TIMING…
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AFTER 6 PM.

IMPACTS…
HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS AND WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS…
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS THIS
EVENING.

DISCUSSION…
A MODEST LOW-LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN EARLY THIS
MORNING…ALLOWING THE ONGOING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO LOSE
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY GENERATED BY THE
ONGOING ACTIVITY WILL BE MONITORED AS A POTENTIAL FOCUS LATER
TODAY…BUT WITH WEAK SHEAR OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
OKLAHOMA NEAR ANY BOUNDARY LATE TODAY…ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER
CHANCES WILL BE LOW.

AS FAR AS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA LATE TODAY…IN AND NEAR THE SLIGHT
RISK AREA…DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR WILL BE STRONGER TO SUPPORT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. BY LATE AFTERNOON…SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN OR CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES…AND SLOWLY WORK THEIR WAY EASTWARD
TOWARD NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA.

PROBABILITY TABLE…
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT WEDNESDAY MAY 26.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA…100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR…25 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER…
IN THE WAKE OF OVERNIGHT HEAVY RAINFALL…FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AND
POORLY DRAINED AREAS WILL CONTINUE…ESPECIALLY OVER FAR WESTERN AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY…

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK…
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AND A WEAK CAP MAY ALLOW A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A
RIDGE ALOFT. HOWEVER…GIVEN THE WEAK VERTICAL WIND FIELDS…
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

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