The Hazardous Weather Outlook, National Weather Service, Norman

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN…WESTERN…
CENTRAL…AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA…AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE…THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT…

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK…
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF
NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION…
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS GENERALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM CHEROKEE… TO
WEATHERFORD… TO FREDERICK… TO SEYMOUR TEXAS.

TIMING…
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM 2 PM TO
10 PM.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS…
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

DISCUSSION…
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER MAINLY
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. AN UPPER LEVEL STORM
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE
WEAK LIFT OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE UPPER STORMS SYSTEM HAS ALSO WEAKENED THE
STRONG CAPPING INVERSION THAT SUPPRESSED STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
THE REGION THIS PAST WEEKEND. DUE TO THE LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT
SURFACE BOUNDARY TO FOCUS LOW LEVEL LIFT… INITIAL STORM
DEVELOPMENT COULD BE SCATTERED ANYWHERE ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA OR
NORTH TEXAS.

WHILE PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL YIELD MODERATE TO HIGH
INSTABILITIES SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT… THE
DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK. THIS ENVIRONMENT
FAVORS A FEW STORMS POSSIBLY BRIEFLY PRODUCING ISOLATED HAIL TO THE
SIZE OF QUARTERS OR HALF DOLLARS ALONG WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS BEFORE
THE STORM WEAKENS.

PROBABILITY TABLE…
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT TUESDAY MAY 25.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA…80 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR…25 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER…
SURFACE WINDS WILL AGAIN GUST 35 TO 40 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY…

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK…
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL FROM THE PANHANDLES INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS 
TUESDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT
IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA.

PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AND A WEAKENED CAP MAY ALLOW A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A
RIDGE ALOFT. HOWEVER…GIVEN THE WEAK VERTICAL WIND FIELDS ALOFT…
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

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